Alex asks…
What has to happen before we can see Noah Syndergaard join the rotation assuming he’s dominating in Las Vegas through May? I’m concerned Dillon Gee is still here plus we’d have to still make room for him in the rotation regardless. By the way, I think giving Bartolo Colon that second year was a mistake.
Tommy replies…
I’ll start by stating the obvious: it’s not really an issue with a concrete resolution. Next, I’ll cheat and get the last part of your mailbag out of the way: Colon was good last year, his salary isn’t huge this year, and we’re not committed to him after this. I also still think he has always been and still is tradable under the right circumstances. But you have to overpay on the open market. I don’t think $11 million was much considering the star-caliber year Bartolo had the year before we signed him, I don’t think he was a bust at that amount last year, and I don’t think there’s too much risk for him this year. Even if he might end up being a bit overpaid, Colon is not a guy who relies on power or athleticism… I don’t really dislike the deal, even the second year. He’s a workhorse, we’re going to need guys to eat innings (insert eating joke here) with such a young pitching corps.
As for Syndergaard… didn’t we trade him this winter for a shortstop or a young, controllable bat in the outfield who can make an impact right away? No? Alright, let’s get into it then…
First of all, I don’t expect Noah to dominate statistically in Triple A, even when he’s ready. Las Vegas is a terrible place for pitchers, so we shouldn’t expect him to post eye-popping stats that scream, “call me up” down in the minors. If he does, that makes things a bit more complicated.
If the Mets like the way he’s pitching, the next barrier would be the Super 2 cutoff. The Mets likely won’t call him up before May because they don’t want him to accrue a full year of service, but they’ll likely want to avoid paying him four years of arbitration rather than three as well, so that would make the Mets inclined to wait until June or maybe even July.
The next obstacle is, as you alluded to, rotation space. Right now, there are already 6 guys for 5 spots: Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Bartolo Colon, and Jon Niese. Gee could get traded, but it’s looking like that won’t happen (if it does, a deal should develop soon, because the James Shields domino just fell). So in all likelihood, we have 6 guys for 5 spots, with Gee likely to begin the season in the bullpen if he’s still on the roster.
But in the words of Terry Collins, “Sh*t happens.” Somebody might get hurt. Heck, somebody probably WILL get hurt. Maybe two guys. Maybe Harvey, who relies on his slider and plays for a snake-bitten franchise, doesn’t have a perfect, uninterrupted return from Tommy John surgery. So my gut tells me the Mets might do well not to make moves for the sake of making moves and having only 5 guys for those 5 spots… because if they do that, they might soon find they only have 3.
Maybe a trade mid-season helps to clear things up for Noah. Maybe Noah is himself traded in a summer deal. But if the Mets think Noah is ready, and they somehow have avoided bad luck in their rotation, do they call him up? That’s the question.
I say they should leave him down there, because even if they say he’s “ready,” he’s still so young and can only continue to develop and improve. You could argue that he might reach the point where the only way he can improve is to face MLB hitting, but I’m not sure how quickly he’d get to that point. The Mets don’t need to be in any rush. If he forces their hand, and the Mets rotation remains intact and nobody is performing badly enough to flat-out lose their spot, I think they leave Noah in Vegas, and wait until there’s an opening.
A more out-of-the-box solution would be to go with a 6-man rotation to give Harvey some rest, but that might disrupt the other pitchers. Having Gee in the bullpen available to make spot starts would probably be a better way to keep some stress off of Harvey.
If you’re thinking “Hey, this Tommy jerk didn’t give me an answer,” I think I did, but if I had to give you a very concise one, I would say: The Mets need to see Noah Syndergaard performing in Las Vegas at a MLB ready level, and need to have a reason (or an opportunity, or an excuse, or a way, or whatever label you want to use) manifest in Flushing to warrant (allow, enable?) them to summon Thor.
