Tommy Pham
Position: OF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 34 (03/08/1988)
2022 Traditional Stats: 144 G, .236/.312/.374, 17 HR, 23 2B, 63 RBI, 131 H
2022 Advanced Stats: 87 OPS+, 89 wRC+, 0.4 rWAR, 0.6 fWAR, .304 BABiP, 9.0% BB%, 26.9% K%, .311 xwOBA, 0 DRS, -6 OAA
Rundown
In his age-34 season, Tommy Pham had the worst full season of his life. He had the highest strikeout rate of his career while setting career lows in walk rate, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ISO, xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, and xwOBACON. Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Pham had never recorded an OPS+ below 103 or a wRC+ below 102, but he recorded marks of just 87 and 89, respectively, in 2022.
However, some metrics show that Pham could be due for a bounce-back in 2023. His average-exit velocity jumped back up to 92.2 MPH, which ranked in the 93rd percentile of the league and is a solid increase from his 90.8-MPH mark in 2021. Also, his hard-hit rate jumped from 47.6% to 48.2%, which pegged him in the 89th percentile.
After struggling against fastballs in 2021, Pham registered a solid plus-9 run value and a 62.1% hard-hit rate against heaters in 2022. Pham was still effective against lefties too, recording a .273/.338/.446 batting line in 154 plate appearances against southpaws.
Defensively, Pham only played left field and nearly identical metrics to his 2021 numbers, with 0 DRS and negative-6 OAA. His arm strength improved though, increasing his average velocity on his throws from 86.0 MPH to 88.4.
Lastly, while his foot speed isn’t as fast as it used to be, Pham still rates as an above-average base runner with 1.9 BsR and swiping eight bases in 11 tries.
Tommy Pham. David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Contract
Spotrac projects Pham to sign a two-year contract worth $16.7 million this off-season. He made $6 million this past season before the Red Sox bought out his contract at the end of the year.
Considering that Andrew McCutchen only received $5 million from the Pirates, and that Pham is coming off the worst season of his career, it’s hard to envision him getting a pay raise or more than a one-year deal.
However, he could provide to value to teams as a right-handed bench bat who can start once or twice a week to give other players some rest. Considering that he still has some speed too, Pham could get some shots as a pinch-runner in late-game situations.
Recommendation
The Mets have been searching for right-handed bats and a fourth outfielder for quite some time now, and Pham presents another intriguing option. He may not have another 20-20 season, or put up over 6.0 WAR again, but he could provide the depth they need.
If he’s willing to accept a bench role and take a one-year contract, Pham would be a solid signing for the team. He hits the ball hard, doesn’t chase and generates walks, and is a decent baserunner. All the tools to be a solid fourth outfielder and bench bat.
