Teoscar Hernández

Position: OF
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 31 (10/15/1992)

2023 Traditional Stats: 160 G, 678 PA, .258/.305/.435/.741, 26 HR, 29 2B, 93 RBI, 161 H
2023 Advanced Stats: 106 OPS+, 105 wRC+, 2.1 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR, 31.1 SO%, 5.6 BB%, .342 BABIP, .336 xwOBA, 1 DRS, 0 OAA

Rundown

Teoscar Hernández played his 2023 season with the Seattle Mariners, his first year on the team following parts of six seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays. Before the Blue Jays, Hernández began his career with limited at-bats as an Astro after signing with the club as an international free agent in 2011. Now 31, Hernández has spent parts of eight years in the big leagues and will be a free agent for the first time in his career.

Hernández has been one of the most consistent bats in baseball over the last several years, as he has slugged more than 20 home runs in five of the last six seasons. The only season he didn’t was in the shortened 2020 season, and even then, he hit 16 homers in 50 games, a 52-home run pace over a full 162-game season.

That 2020 season was really a breakout year for Hernández, even though he had already been an important bat for Toronto. In 2018 and 2019, his first two full years in Toronto, he hit a combined 48 homers but only batted .235 with a .774 OPS across those two seasons. In 2020, however, Hernández’s 50-home run pace, .289 average, and .919 OPS in 50 games really put him on the map for those who didn’t know him already. During that shortened season, Hernández received his first career Silver Slugger award and even some down-ballot MVP votes, finishing in 11th place.

Hernández set out in 2021 to prove that his strong 2020 wasn’t a fluke or the result of a 60-game season, and he did exactly that. During the 2021 season, Hernández became an All-Star for the first time, setting career-highs in batting average (.296), on-base percentage (.346), home runs (32), RBIs (116), and hits (163). Hernández once again earned a Silver Slugger award, the second of his career, and more down-ballot MVP votes, this time finishing in 19th place.

2022 was a bit of a regression for Hernández, but he still turned in a quality year with 25 home runs and an .807 OPS. A disappointing postseason exit for the Blue Jays and a desire from the front office to tweak the roster made Hernández available for trade following the season, and the Seattle Mariners swooped in to acquire Hernández in exchange for pitchers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.

Hernández’s 2023 season was even more of a regression, but once again, he still proved to be a serviceable bat in the Mariners’ lineup. He drove in 93 runs, the second-highest mark of his career, while hitting 23 homers and recording a so-so .741 OPS, the lowest mark of his career over a full season. Perhaps the biggest reason for his regression at the plate is that he recorded, by far, the most strikeouts of his career with 211. The next highest total had come in 2018 when he struck out 163 times.

The advanced metrics give more insight into who Hernández has been as a player throughout his career and how he looked last year as well. According to Statcast, Hernández was near the bottom of the league in terms of chase rate (13th percentile), whiff rate (3rd percentile), and strikeout rate (9th percentile) in 2023, rankings which have been consistent throughout his career. On the other hand, Hernández was near the top of the league in average exit velocity (81st percentile), barrel percentage (88th percentile), and hard-hit percentage (90th percentile), which have also been consistent throughout his career. Hernández swings and misses a lot, and his strikeout rate in 2023 is certainly cause for concern, but when he makes contact with the ball he can do serious damage.

Defensively, Hernández has been an average-at-best outfielder throughout his career. He has played in all three outfield positions before, but has spent the most time in right field. In 2023, he recorded one defensive run saved and zero outs above average, both the highest marks of his career. At age 31, it’s hard to believe that his defense will improve anymore, so getting average defense is likely the best a team that will sign him can hope for.

Contract

According to Spotrac.com, Teoscar Hernández is believed to have a market value of $16.5 million. The site projects him to earn a contract of four years for about $66 million. When looking at some of the free agent outfield signings from recent years, such as Michael Conforto (two-year, $36 million), Mitch Haniger (three-year, $43.5 million), and Andrew Benintendi (five-year, $75 million), Hernández certainly could get a contract in the four-year, $66 million range if not more than that. He has demonstrated, even with regression last year, that he is a consistently valuable player and would be a welcome addition to any team’s lineup.

Recommendation

From the Mets’ point of view, it might not be smart to sign Teoscar Hernández when Starling Marte is supposed to be the right fielder for the next two years. But if you’re looking to compete in 2024, can you trust Marte to stay healthy? And if he is healthy, can you trust him to produce? It wouldn’t be smart by any means for the Mets to pencil Marte in as the right fielder for 2024.

With Hernández, you have a player that you really don’t have to worry about injury history. He has played at least 120 games in every full season since he was a big league player, including 160 just last year. Hernández has been one of the most consistent batters in the league throughout his career and is someone you can count on to hit 20-plus home runs each year. Though he strikes out a lot, there’s no doubt that he can be valuable to whatever lineup he’s part of.

That said, it will be up to David Stearns to see if he deems Hernández a fit. Hernández is on the wrong side of 30 and has already regressed each of the last two years. Would he be more valuable than Marte in right field? Could he potentially occupy the designated hitter spot? Does he have a role at all on the team? Stearns will have to answer all of these questions, but he should certainly reach out and see what the interest level is. If Hernández is a good fit and an upgrade over Marte, offer him a contract. If you think his best days are behind him and more regression is imminent, move in another direction.