Position: RP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 34 (11/3/1987)

Traditional Stats: 65 G, 0-2, 2.79 ERA, 61.1 IP, 74 SO, 0.880 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 0.6 WAR, 155 ERA+, 2.73 FIP, 7.9 BB%, 30.8 K%

Rundown

The free agent market is still littered with solid bullpen arms — something several teams, including the New York Mets, would be wise to revisit once the lockout is over. One of the top right-handed relievers remaining on the market is seven-year veteran Ryan Tepera.

Tepera spent the season split between the Chicagos: the Cubs and the White Sox. In total, he appeared in 65 games throwing 61 1/3 innings (43 1/3 innings with the Cubs and 18 innings with the White Sox). Overall, he pitched to an impressive 2.57 xERA and 2.73 FIP. He also posted a career-low walk rate and the second-highest strikeout rate of his career.

A further dive into his numbers paint an even more impressive picture. Per Baseball Savant, Tepera ranked above the 90th percentile in the following metrics: xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and Whiff%. He was also above the 78th percentile in the following: Avg. Exit Velocity, Hard Hit %, K%, and Chase Rate. This confirms that his traditional numbers matchup with his actual performance and his performance was not skewed due to good defense or “luck.”

As for pitch type, Tepera mainly relies on his slider (44.9%) and four-seam fastball (33.2%). He also throws a sinker (10.9%) and changeup (10.4%) as well. Velocity-wise, his slider sits at around 87 mph and the fast-stuff (fastball and sinker) in the 93 mph range. Fortunately, his best pitches are the two he throws the most often — his slider and four-seamer.

The slider generates an xBA of .145 (third-lowest among right-handed relievers last season, min. 30 innings pitched) and four-seamer .171 (eighth-lowest among right-handed relievers last season, min. 30 innings pitched). As for his two secondary pitches, Tepera’s changeup faired well with an xBA of only .138, but he did get beat on his sinker quite a bite, as it generated an xBA of .305.

Last season was a career year for the 34-year-old right-handed reliever. However, it should not be seen as a one-off. In the COVID-19 shorted season of 2020-21, he also put up very respectable numbers (3.34 FIP). In his career, he has only pitched to an ERA of over 4.00 once. Tepera has a track record of success, so why the career-year at age 33-34? It’s simple, the discovery of an elite slider and the vastly improved walk-rate.

Until last season, Tepera did not throw his slider more than five percent of the time. He instead relied on a cutter that was a tick faster but had far less movement.  This year, he made the slider his premier pitch and it was one of the best in the league. At age 34, with this re-discovered pitch at his disposal, is this just the beginning for Tepera?

As for the walk issues, Tepera had a walk rate of 13.5% in 2020 (league’s 11th percentile). It is impressive he was still able to be effective with a rate that high. In his career, he usually sits around a rate in the 9.5%-range (roughly league’s 35th percentile), still not ideal. This year, as mentioned above, he got that down to 7.9% (league’s 50th percentile) which is a career-low.

Worth pointing out, even without the slider and with the walk issues, Tepera was still an effective reliever in year’s past. So, in the case his slider were not to be as elite as it was last season, and that walk rate creeps back up, there is still an avenue for Tepera to be a very effective right-hander in the bullpen. This in a worst-case scenario.

Contract

Tepera signed a ‘prove-it’ deal with the Cubs before the 2021 season. In doing so, he only made $800,000 this past season with the one-year deal. Given how effective he was, Tepera will certainly be in line for a much-deserved, hefty-raise on the open market.

So, what can that raise possibly look like? MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a two-year deal totaling $12,000,000 for the Texas native. Meanwhile, the crowd-sourced FanGraphs projection is a one-year deal worth $4,000,000. For comparisons sake, the below table shows some relievers that share some similar characteristics with Tepera and the deals they already signed:

Name

Team

Handiness

Age

Contract
Aaron Loup LAA LHP 34 Two-years, $17.00M
Héctor Neris HOU RHP 33 Two-years, $17.00M
Kendall Graveman CHW RHP 31 Three-years, $24.00M
Mark Melancon ARI RHP 37 Two-years, $14.00M
Daniel Hudson LAD RHP 35 One-year, $7.00M
Yimi Garcia TOR RHP 31 Two-years, $11.00M
Brooks Raley TBR LHP 34 Two-years, $10.00M

Based off the projections and above comparable, it appears the 34-year old will most likely see a two-year deal worth anywhere from $10,000,000 to $13,000,000 in total. A one-year deal is possible, but given his performance and the most likely want for some stability, a two-year deal makes more sense. Regardless, at the current projections it appears whoever signs Tepera will get nice value.

Recommendation

The New York Mets have been very active this off-season. The team has addressed both the lineup and the rotation so far. However, the team has yet to make any bullpen signings. That should certainly be on the Metropolitans list next because as it stands the bullpen currently looks like:

Other possible rostered bullpen pieces are Yennsy Díaz (RHP), Sean Reid-Foley (RHP), and Jake Reed (RHP). Notice one aspect in common for all these guys? They are all right-handed. This may deter the Mets from signing a reliever such as Tepera. As they may want to spend the team’s remaining assets on a left-hander, which would make sense.

Nonetheless, Tepera is one of the top right-handed relievers left on the market. Additionally, the Mets did reportedly remain in contact with now free agent Jeurys Familia (RHP) before the lock out. This possibly indicating they still want to add another right-hander to the bullpen. So, if this is the case, and Familia does not work out, Tepera would certainly be a great fit at a most likely reasonable price.