Robbie Ray

Position: Starting Pitcher
Throws/Bats: L/L
Age: 30 (10/01/1991)

Traditional Stats: 32 G, 13-7, 2.84, 193.1 IP, 248 SO, 1.045 WHIP
Advanced Stats: 6.7 WAR, 154 ERA+, 3.69 FIP, 10.6 BB%, 21.2 K%, 4.77 K/BB

Rundown

Since his major league debut with the Detroit Tigers in 2014, Robbie Ray‘s electric arsenal of pitches has earned him the reputation of one of the games foremost strikeout artists. In fact, when Ray struck out the Orioles’ Ryan McKenna on August 30, 2021 for his 1,241st K, he eclipsed the record for the most strikeouts by a pitcher ever in their first 1,000 innings pitched (Yu Darvish previously held the record with 1,222 punch outs in his first 1,000 innings).

Unfortunately for Ray, he has been almost as prolific at walking hitters as he has been at striking them out. Prior to 2021, Ray had not finished higher than the 32nd percentile among major league pitchers in BB%. In fact, between 2017 and 2020, Ray never finished higher than the 17th percentile in that same statistic.

Additionally, limiting hard contact has never been a strong suit of Ray’s. His high water mark for average exit velocity was the 42nd percentile in 2019. However, his performance in this department in 2019 appears to be the outlier, as he has never finished above the 15th percentile in average exit velocity in any other season.

Still, it is difficult to find many negatives in Ray’s 2021 performance, which has undoubtedly garnered him serious consideration for the American League’s Cy Young award. Ray finished 2021 with a 13-7 record in 32 games started, in which he compiled a 2.84 ERA in 193.1 IP. Ray also racked up 248 strikeouts in 2021, and improved his walk rate tremendously, rising all the way up to the 73rd percentile in that category.

The 2021 season also saw Ray maintain his characteristically elite swing and miss numbers, as he ranked in the 93rd, 87th and 70th percentiles, in K%, swing and miss percentage, and chase rate. It is also worth noting that Ray’s average fastball velocity was up nearly a whole mile per hour, to 94.8, from his 93.9 figure in 2020.

Contract

Ray’s terrific 2021 campaign could not have come at a better time for the burly left-hander, as he was playing on a one-year, $8 million contract with the Blue Jays following a disastrous 2020 season that saw him pitch to a 6.62 ERA, with a whopping 45 walks in only 51.2 innings pitched. Still, on the heels of his Cy Young caliber 2021 performance, many pundits expect Ray to land a lucrative multi-year contract offer in a market that always rewards pitching, and, particularly, pitchers with good stuff.

In this case, the pundits seem to agree unanimously that Ray is in line for a big pay raise. MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Ray would return to Toronto on a five-year, $130 million contract. Ken Davidoff of the NY Post sees Ray fetching $1 million less per year over the same duration.

Recommendation 

There may be some level of “buyer beware” with Robbie Ray. While the southpaw has always had extremely enticing tools and velocity, he has struggled to consistently put everything together, at least until his stellar 2021 season. Any team offering a nine-figure contract to Ray will need to be convinced that Ray turned the corner last season, and that the improvements to his walk rate and some of his other peripheral statistics were not a flash in the pan.

For the Mets, specifically, Ray is an intriguing fit as a left-hander with an enticing blend of stuff and a seemingly upward career trajectory. However, some might argue that the Mets would be better off paying the big bucks for a pitcher with a more consistent and sustained track record of success, a la Marcus Stroman.

I tend to agree with the latter school of thought, given the uncertainty facing a Mets rotation that will be returning several starters from significant injury, including ace Jacob DeGrom, Carlos Carrasco, David Peterson and Noah Syndergaard. With so many question marks in the rotation, locking in a pitcher who has a proven track record of volatility at $25 million-plus per season may not be the best investment. Still, Ray’s impressive strikeout rate makes him an enticing target, especially given the ever-present need for power arms come October and November, should the Mets make it there.