Age: 30 (8/29/1992)
B/T: L/R
2022 Traditional Stats: 24 GS, 10-10 record, 134 2/3 IP, 3.94 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 95 SO, 31 BB
2022 Advanced Stats: 103 ERA+, 3.83 FIP, 16.8 SO%, 5.5 BB%, 1.6 bWAR
Rundown
It’s impossible to tell the story of the New York Mets during the last decade without mentioning Noah Syndergaard. Acquired by the team back in 2012 as part of the deal that sent then-reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays, Syndergaard made his major league debut in 2015, posting a 9-7 record with a 3.24 ERA in 24 starts. Syndergaard finished top five in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2015 and made three starts during the Mets’ postseason run, securing the team’s only winning decision of that year’s World Series.
Syndergaard was even better in 2016, posting a 14-9 record with a 2.60 ERA and earning votes for both the Cy Young and MVP awards. He was named an All-Star for the first and so far only time in his career, and he pitched seven shutout innings in the Mets’ Wild Card Game loss to the San Francisco Giants. The Thor experience had arrived in Queens, and Syndergaard seemed destined for greatness.
However, Syndergaard was unable to reach those lofty heights again in a Mets uniform. He made just seven starts in the 2017 season before being diagnosed with a torn lat muscle. He rebounded well in 2018 (13-4 record, 3.03 ERA), but he struggled in 2019 and ended up pitching just two innings across the 2020 and 2021 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Syndergaard became a free agent after the 2021 season, and the Los Angeles Angles decided to take a flyer on the former ace, signing him to a one-year, $21 million contract. He was a serviceable pitcher for the Angels, posting a 5-8 record with a 3.83 ERA across 15 starts.
With the Angels going nowhere this past season, the team shipped him off to the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline. He made nine starts for the Phillies in the regular season, going 5-2 with a 4.12 ERA, and he featured in four games for the team during their World Series run.
Syndergaard has had to reinvent himself as a pitcher post-Tommy John surgery, and his early returns are a mixed bag. His velocity was way down from his flamethrowing days in Queens, from a 98.7 mph average fastball velocity in 2016 to a 94.0 mph average fastball velocity in 2022. His strikeout numbers suffered severely as a result, plummeting to a paltry 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings. His walk rate stayed pretty consistent with his career numbers, as did his WHIP and home runs per nine.
The most important revelation for Syndergaard in 2022 was that he was able to make it through a full season of pitching. He made 24 starts, pitching 134 2/3 innings and even firing off a complete game. He may not be the same pitcher that dominated opposing lineups in 2016, but if his antics during the 2022 postseason are anything to go by, his big-game personality and his desire to win are as strong as ever.
Contract
Syndergaard signed with the Angels prior to this past season with the intention of proving his worth and earning himself a large, multi-year contract this offseason. He may have done just that, as Spotrac.com estimates his market value is worth a four-year contract for $61 million, an average annual salary that would place him among the top 30 highest-earning starting pitchers in the league.
His numbers and injury history will likely keep him from receiving a contract offer of that length, but an AAV in the $15 million region might not be too far off. There will undoubtedly be a team out there that takes a flyer on the 30-year-old Syndergaard, banking on his continued development as he is now a full year removed from his Tommy John surgery rehab.
Recommendation
The Mets would be foolish not to at least consider a reunion with Syndergaard given the current state of the team’s starting rotation. Taijuan Walker is free agent after a solid 2022 season, and both Jacob deGrom and Chris Bassitt will be hot commodities in free agency. The Mets have yet to exercise Carlos Carrasco’s team option for the 2023 season, and even if they do, they will be left with just two starters from the team’s full-strength starting rotation last season in Carrasco and Max Scherzer.
The Mets do have plenty of young arms to fill in those missing spots, most notably David Peterson and Tylor Megill. The team may also target some of the top-end starting pitching options such as deGrom or Carlos Rodon to pair with Scherzer.
Still, it would make sense to add some veteran leadership to the backend of the pitching staff, just as they did with Walker and Carrasco this past year. If so, there are few names that would appear to be more fitting for the job than the man that Mets fans affectionately nicknamed “Thor” all those years ago.
