Marcus Stroman

Throws/Bats: R/R

Date of Birth: 05/01/1991 (Age: 31)

Traditional Stats: 33G, 10-13, 3.02, 179 IP, 153 SO, 1.145 WHIP

Advanced Stats: 3.6 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR, 133 ERA+, 3.49 FIP, 2.2 BB/9, 21.7 K%, 2.61 K/BB

Rundown

With Noah Syndergaard’s sudden and surprising departure from the club earlier this offseason, the Mets’ already thin starting rotation appears in dire need of reinforcements. The Mets’ 40-man roster currently counts Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Trevor Williams, and Jordan Yamamoto as its only realistic starting pitching options heading into 2022. In an ideal world, the Mets would count the latter four as potential fifth starters and depth pieces.

DeGrom, the Mets’ ace, will enter 2022 having pitched only 92 innings in the season prior due to various ailments, Carrasco only tossed 53.2 major league innings in 2021, compiling an unsightly 6.04 ERA after missing a large portion of the season due to hamstring woes, Walker parlayed a strong first half of 2021 into his first All-Star Game appearance before finishing 2021 with a 4.47 ERA in 159 IP.

The Mets shouldn’t expect much help from their farm system in this department, as it seems exceedingly unlikely that either of the Mets’ top pitching prospects, Matthew Allan and J.T. Ginn, will have a chance to contribute to the big league club next season, with both on the mend after recent Tommy John surgeries.

Enter Marcus Stroman. The diminutive right-hander was the bedrock of the Mets’ starting rotation in 2021. Stroman enters free agency after leading the Mets’ pitching staff in total games started and innings pitched and turning in a sterling 3.02 ERA in the process. His 10-13 record belies his strong season. Stroman was among the unluckiest starters in baseball in terms of run support, as the Mets scored an average of 3.61 runs per game started by Marcus, ninth-worst in the MLB among pitchers who started 20 games or more.

The Mets acquired Stroman from the Jays in July 2019 for highly regarded pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods-Richardson. At the time, Stroman came with a year and a half of team control. The Long Island native started eleven games down the stretch for the 2019 Mets, compiling a 3.77 ERA in just under 60 innings with his new club. After opting out of the 2020 season due to fears over the Covid-19 pandemic, Stroman, who forfeited his salary for the season was still credited for a year of service time. He later accepted the qualifying offer extended by the Mets, and played out the 2021 season on the one-year contract.

Stroman compiled a 3.21 ERA over 238.2 innings pitched in a Mets uniform. Those numbers represent an apparently marked improvement from Stroman’s seven seasons in Toronto, during which he pitched to a 3.76 ERA over more than 1,000 innings. However, a closer look at Stroman’s statistic shows that he’s been almost the same exact pitcher in Flushing that he was in Toronto. FIP, or Fielding Independent Performance, looks solely at the factors that a pitcher can control (i.e. walks, strikeouts and home runs), and calculates pitcher performance based on those factors alone. Generally, a good FIP looks the same as a good ERA. Over his time in Toronto, Stroman pitched to a 3.60 FIP. In his time in New York, Stroman’s FIP was 3.66.

Stroman has never been a strikeout specialist. In fact, between 2015 and 2021, Stroman never surpassed greater than a 21.7% strikeout percentage. Stroman never ranked higher than the 38^th percentile among major league pitchers in that rate. Instead, Stroman has made his living mixing his pitches and recording outs on the ground. Stroman has amassed a groundball rate of between 53 and 64% during every season of his career. Although, that number has sharply declined from its peak in 2018 during each of his last two full seasons. Still, Stroman’s above-average spin rates on his sinker and breaking pitches make him effective at avoiding barrels. From 2016 – 2021, Stroman never ranked lower than the 52^nd percentile in barrel rate among starting pitchers, and he ranked as high as the 93^rd percentile in that category in 2021.

It must be noted, though, that the advanced statistics indicated that Stroman has never been a strong performer in expected batting average against or expected ERA. That might be a result of the strong hard-hit percentages major league hitters have put up against Stroman, and his lack of elite velocity and swing and miss percentages.

Stroman has been a consistent contributor over the course of his career and has earned a reputation as a bulldog on the mound. His competitiveness was never more evident than in September 2015, when Stroman seemingly miraculously returned to the mound only six months after he tore his ACL in that year’s Spring Training. Stroman entered free agency as one of the top starters on the market after averaging 3.5 bWAR/162 games in the first seven seasons of his career.

Contract

Stroman, who will turn 32 years old in May, looks set for a major payday this offseason. MLB Trade Rumors predicts Stroman will sign a 5-year contract worth $110 million. Jim Bowden of the Athletic predicted the same contract for the Duke University product. Ken Davidoff of the New York Post came in a little lighter with his prediction, as he sees Stroman signing for 5 years and $100 million.

Stroman is represented by The Legacy Agency.

Recommendation

Given the uncertainty in their rotation, the Mets will likely need to sign multiple starting pitchers. While Stroman might not have the upside of some of the other arms on the free agent market (e.g. Carlos Rodon, Kevin Gausman, Robbie Ray), he comes with a track record of health and consistent performance nearly unmatched by any pitcher in his age group in this free agent crop.

In my view, before they can gamble on the upside of some of the other names in the market, the Mets need to buy certainty for their starting rotation. While there is risk inherent in signing any pitcher to a nine-figure deal, Stroman comes with about as few question marks as any starter on the market. Any team that signs him should feel comfortable penciling him in for 160 plus innings and a sub-4.00 ERA. While that might not be the flashiest production, it is invaluable to major league organizations uniformly taking more precautions than ever before with the workload placed on their young arms. Put simply, the Mets simply have too much uncertainty in their starting rotation, and too little in the way of reinforcements in the minor leagues, to risk going into the 2022 season without a proven innings-eater like Stroman anchoring the middle of their rotation.

Moreover, Stroman’s next contract should not break the Bank of Steve Cohen. Based on the predictions referenced above, it seems like the Mets will have the opportunity to lock in an above-average starter for the next half-decade at $20-$22 million per season. With Syndergaard’s departure, deGrom seems to be the only starting pitcher on the active roster in line for a major contract extension any time soon. Having to pay more good pitchers is a problem the Mets would love to have, but the lack of resources invested in the starting rotation at the moment should make committing money to a starter like Stroman in the medium-long term more palatable.

Put simply, given the gaping hole in their rotation, the Mets should feel comfortable investing at the predicted level in Marcus Stroman. There are simply too many question marks left unanswered if they do not.