Kevin Gausman
Bats/Throws: L/R
Date of Birth: 1/6/1991 (30)
Traditional Stats: 14-6, 33 Games Started, 192 innings, 1.042 WHIP, 2.81 ERA, 227 Ks
Advanced Stats: 5.3 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR, 3.49 xERA, 3.00 FIP, 10.64 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9
Kevin Gausman is probably the best starting pitcher on the market not named Max Scherzer and he will not cost a draft pick to sign. Much like Marcus Stroman, Gausman decided to bet on himself by taking the qualifying offer last off-season, and he will cash in this off-season. Scherzer also seems very unlikely to leave the West Coast so Gausman is the most attainable high-end arm for the Mets.
Since Farhan Zaidi took over the Giants, they have experimented by signing a lot of starters with upside but mediocre results to one-year deals. Last off-season, they did it with Aaron Sanchez, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood. The off-season before that, they did it with Kevin Gausman. Gausman had mostly middling results with the Orioles and Braves but since going to San Francisco, he has become one of the best pitchers in baseball. So at this point, you are probably wondering what was the change he made since going to the Bay Area. The answer is really rather straightforward: he has been throwing his fastball less and has relied on his splitter more.
As one can pretty easily tell from the graph above, Gausman has always been a fastball-splitter pitcher but recently, the difference between the pitch usage of those two has decreased considerably. He did use it in 2019 too but that was mostly due to him ditching his slider, rather than decreasing his fastball usage. It does not feel like the effects of the change should have been that noticeable but the results have been splendid. It is also worth mentioning that the Giants player development at the MLB level since Zaidi and Gabe Kapler took over is one of the bests in baseball. It is not a coincidence that they have had so much success at turning around the careers of countless players.
It is easy to question if Gausman changes are sustainable and he is suddenly worth a $120-150 million contract. It is a fair question but I do believe his changes are legitimate. He has a better understanding of his splitter and knows how to use it effectively. To those who are skeptical, I think I would suggest looking at Zack Wheeler as a good example of someone who had serious breakout potential as he was entering free agency. The Mets are in a position where they need to take some of these risks in order to build a championship contender.
Contract Predictions
MLBTR and FanGraphs do a good job of predicting contracts but those predictions have not been released yet. In my opinion, I think he has merited a Wheeler contract. He might have even earned himself a sixth year. I will estimate that Gausman will be in the market for six or seven years early on but he will eventually earn himself a six-year deal worth about $145 million.
My Thoughts
The simple answer? Yes.
Gausman is the best pitcher the Mets can go after. The Mets rotation needs another pitcher who can pitch like an ace. Jacob deGrom has a partially torn UCL, Noah Syndergaard is essentially coming off two missed seasons, Taijuan Walker‘s second half was not particularly inspiring, Carlos Carrasco is a question mark, and Stroman is a free agent. The Mets do not have an option to try the same rotation again and see if the results differ. They need to try something new and Kevin Gausman would be that. The Mets likely need both Stroman and Gausman let alone one or the other.
