Position: Starting Pitcher

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 39 (2/20/1983)

2022 Traditional Statistics: 28 GS, 18-4 W-L, 175 IP, 1.75 ERA, 0.829 WHIP, 185 SO, 29 BB

2022 Advanced Statistics: 156 ERA+, 2.49 FIP, 27.8 SO%, 4.4 BB%, 5.9 bWAR

Rundown

Drafted second overall in the first round by the Detroit Tigers in the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft, Justin Verlander has made his name known as one of the elite pitchers of this generation. His accolades back up this notion, as he’s collected many awards through the years:

  • 2006 American League Rookie of the Year
  • 2011 American League Pitching Triple Crown
  • Nine-time All-Star
  • Two-time ERA title champion
  • Three AL Cy Young awards (2011, 2019 and 2022)
  • ALCS MVP in 2017
  • Two-time World Series champion
  • American League MVP in 2011.

Boasting a career 77.6 WAR, Verlander has won 244 career regular-season games with a cumulative 3.24 ERA in 482 career starts across 3,163 innings pitched to go along with 3,198 strikeouts over 17 seasons. Additionally, Verlander has thrown three no-hitters (2007, 2011 and 2019), and it puts him on a list with other major league greats, such as Nolan Ryan, Cy Young, Sandy Koufax, and Bob Feller, all who have thrown three or more no hitters in their careers.

After undergoing Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2021 season, Verlander came back strong and was a force for the Houston Astros. He earned his third Cy Young award. This via the 18-4 record he posted with an incredible AL-leading 1.75 ERA. Verlander also tallied 185 strikeouts, a 0.829 WHIP, and 5.9 WAR all through 175 innings thrown.

To further delve into Verlander’s superb 2022 campaign, he struck out 27.8 percent of the batters he faced, along with a 4.4% percent walk rate. He relied on his four-seam fastball 50.4% of the time at 95.1 MPH, he also utilized his slider 28.3% at a speed of 87.5 mph and had batters swinging and missing at an 11.6% clip, which is above the major-league average for 2022.

Simply put, at age 39 Verlander had arguably one of the best year of his storied career. Setting him up for a huge payday in the off-season.

Contract

According to Houston Astros owner Jim Crane, Verlander is looking to sign deal similar to former teammate Max Scherzer, who signed a three-year, $130 million contract with the Mets prior to the 2022 season. This would mean that a team looking to sign Verlander would need to pony up close to $43 million a season for a deal that possibly takes him into his age 42 or 43 season.

Spotrac.com predicts Verlander current market value can net a two-year contract, close to $90 million and $45 million per season, which would make him the highest paid pitcher in major league baseball. The Mets would need to offer a contract similar or in the same ballpark in order to land Verlander, if the team so chooses to go in this direction.

Recommendation

Looming is the decision of what will happen with Jacob deGrom and whether he will return to the Mets or sign elsewhere. If deGrom walks, it appears Verlander is someone who would be on the Mets’ radar. Especially given this recent report that describes Verlander as a “prominent possibility.”

If Mets owner Steve Cohen is serious about spending money to help bolster the team, signing Justin Verlander, if deGrom walks, for the short term, is something that should be explored and potentially executed. While Verlander is up there in age and regression is bound to happen at some point, bringing in Verlander on a short term deal signals that the franchise is serious about winning a World Series within the stated three-to-five-year goal. It would also allow the Mets to bring in a top-tier player without having to trade any valuable assets.

If Verlander is brought in, and deGrom decides to sign elsewhere, Verlander and Scherzer would still provide a formidable one-two punch for a team looking to win now, with pieces such as Carlos Carrasco and David Peterson, as well as depth pieces such as Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill available as well.