Jurickson Profar

Position: OF

Bats/Throws: S/R

Age: 29 (2/20/1993)

2022 Traditional Stats: 152 G, 658 PA, .243/.331/.391/.723, 15 HR, 36 2B, 58 RBI, 140 H

2022 Advanced Stats: 111 OPS+, 110 wRC+, 3.1 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR, 11.1 BB%, 15.7 K%, .272 BABIP, .315 xwOBA, 2 DRS, -5 OAA

Rundown

Jurickson Profar had arguably the best season of his career in 2022. In his third season in San Diego, he was able to provide a spark as the leadoff hitter and everyday left fielder for the Padres. With his help, San Diego was able to make the postseason an advance all the way to the NLCS last season. 

Despite making his major league debut at 19 years old with the Rangers in 2012, Profar didn’t play his first full season until 2018 at age 25. This was partly due to a shoulder injury that sidelined him for the entirety of the 2014 and 2015 seasons, as well as him simply being unable to maintain a starting role when healthy.

Profar seemed to come into his own from 2018-2020, as he finally received regular playing time. After playing 146 games with the Rangers  in 2018, Profar was dealt to the Oakland A’s where he played in 2019 before being traded again to the Padres where he played the past three seasons. From the three-year stretch between 2018-20, (including the shortened 2020 season) Profar tallied 47 home runs and 169 RBIs with a .757 OPS and a 102 OPS+. While these numbers don’t exactly stand out, Profar proved that he could be a serviceable bat when healthy.

Profar took a step back and struggled in 2021, hitting just .227 with four home runs. However, he had a huge bounce back season in 2022, posting the best OPS+ of his career over a full season. He also improved defensively from the year before, showing more comfort staying in left field than moving around in a utility role. Profar went from a  negative-4 DRS in 2021 to plus-2 DRS 2022 and negative-7 OAA to negative-5 OAA.

Profar’s advanced metrics from the 2022 season show that despite having good strikeout and walk percentages, his whiff rate and chase rate were well above league average. Additionally, Profar was well below league average in average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage. He had one of his best seasons to date, but these metrics suggest that there are areas in which Profar needs to improve.

Contract

Spotrac.com estimates Profar to receive a contract of six-years, $89.4 million, which would be just under $15 million per year. Entering his age-30 season and not exactly a premier player, it’s hard to imagine Profar receiving this type of deal. Willson Contreras and Andrew Benintendi received similar deals and both players were unanimously regarded as being in a class above Profar this free agent cycle.

Players more on the level of Profar such as Cody Bellinger, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, and A.J. Pollock all signed shorter-term deals this offseason, and it would make sense if Profar received a deal like that. One-to-three years at $10-15 million per year seems reasonable.

Recommendation

The Mets’ everyday outfield seems to be set with Mark Canha, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte. At best, Profar would be a platoon option with Canha, and, at worst, would simply be a fourth outfielder. He doesn’t provide a ton of power, which is perhaps the Mets most pressing need, but he would be a bat that could be relied upon in a limited role.

If Profar is going to receive contract offers from teams similar to his Spotrac.com projection, the Mets should sit this one out. However, if he can be had for a more reasonable price, it would be worth the Mets’ time to at least look into how signing Profar could benefit the team.