José Abreu

Position: First Base/Designated Hitter

Bats/Throws: R/R

Age: 35 (1/29/1987)

2022 Traditional Stats: 157 G, 679 PA, .304 BA, .378 OBP, .446 SLG, .824 OPS, 15 HR, 75 RBI, 183 hits.

2022 Advanced Stats: 131 OPS+, 4.2 bWAR, 9.1 BB%, 16.2 K%, .350 BABIP, .141 ISO, 51.9% HardH%.

Rundown

José Abreu could not follow the traditional route that most MLB players take to join the league. There was no draft day or initial international signing period for the Cuban-born Abreu. Instead, he had to prove himself in the Cuban National Series, Cuba’s professional baseball league, in order to draw the attention of MLB executives.

Abreu thrived in the CNS and slashed .341/.456/.622 with 178 home runs over 10 seasons. To further cement his status amongst MLB teams, Abreu also dominated the 2013 World Baseball Classic and hit .383 with three home runs in nine games.

After the 2013 WBC, it was clear that Abreu was ready to make the jump to MLB. In August of 2013, Abreu defected from Cuba and had a showcase held for himself in the Dominican Republic. Shortly after, in October, the White Sox signed the first baseman to a six-year, $68-million contract.

The White Sox’s investment in Abreu paid immediate dividends as he dominated MLB pitching right out of the gate. In 2014, Abreu won the AL Rookie of the Year and finished fourth in MVP voting after slugging 36 home runs and leading MLB with a 173 OPS+. The first year was not a fluke for the Cuban first-baseman either. From 2015-2022, Abreu slashed .289/.350/.497, slugged 207 home runs, and drove in 756 runs.

The exclamation point, however, came in 2020 for Abreu when he won the American League MVP during the COVID-shortened season. In 60 games, Abreu led the AL in hits and slugging percentage, and led MLB in total bases and RBI. His 2020 MVP performance also led the White Sox to the postseason for the first time since 2008, where they lost to the Oakland Athletics in the Wild Card Series.

In his nine seasons with the White Sox, Abreu established himself as one of the best and consistent all around hitters in MLB. He won three silver sluggers, attended three All-Star Games, and recorded five seasons with at least 30 home runs and 100 runs driven in with Chicago. Abreu also established himself as one of the greatest hitters in White Sox history as he is third on the all-time home runs list with 243, behind Frank Thomas and Paul Konerko.

Along with his numbers, Abreu has managed to stay on the field for the majority of his career. Outside of a strange 2018, in which Abreu was sidelined with an infection in his leg, he has played in at least 145 games every season.

Contract

Abreu, as mentioned, originally signed with the White Sox for six-years and $68 million. After excepting the qualifying offer for $17.8 million in November of 2019, the White Sox extended Abreu for three more years and $50 million.

While his annual-average value over the past two years has been $16 and $14 million, respectively, Abreu’s next contract shouldn’t be expected to be as high. The first baseman will be 37 years old before the start of the 2023 season. Despite showing doubles power, Abreu also hit less than 20 home runs for the first time in his career. According to Sportrac.com, Abreu’s market value is a one-year deal worth $9.1 million.

Will a team get him for that low? Unlikely, though this projection goes to show, Abreu may not be as pricey as one may think. As for term, given his age, a one-year deal with a team or mutual option would make sense. Anything longer than that, and you would be playing with fire.

Recommendation

The Mets should pursue Abreu in the offseason due to their lack of production from the designated-hitter position. In 2022, Mets’ designated hitters slashed .218/.314/.371 and hit only 18 home runs. Abreu would help improve the Mets against left-handed pitching as well. Last season in Chicago, Abreu recorded an .856 OPS against left handers. Another area where the Mets’ offense scuffled.

Most importantly, Abreu would be a cheaper option for the Mets this offseason. With players such as Jacob deGrom, Edwin Díaz, and Brandon Nimmo hitting the free agent market, the Mets should be inclined to take the cost-efficient option at designated hitter. This allowing them to allocate more funds elsewhere, and potentially bring back some of their own in the process.

Although the drop in home runs is concerning for Abreu, his advanced metrics do not indicate that his production will free fall. His hard-hit rate, fly-ball rate, walk rate, BABIP, and exit velocity percentages are all either around or higher than his career normals. Though regression is a given at his age, it should not be harsh as some have experienced in the past.

Between Dominic Smith, J.D. Davis, Darin Ruf, and Daniel Vogelbach, the Mets designated-hitter position was a disaster last year. Signing Abreu would lock down the position and give the Mets another threat in the middle of their line up. In doing so, it would also not put too much of a dent into the Mets’ offseason spending.