Joe Kelly

Position: RHP

Bats/Throws: R/R

Date of Birth: 6/9/1988

Kelly has seemingly been in the league forever largely due to his early work with the Cardinals. He made the Majors after essentially one full year in the minors.

He began his career as a starter with his best season coming in 2013. That year he posted a 2.69 ERA in 124 innings pitched that year. Even with that 2.69 ERA though, Kelly had warning signs of coming back down to earth as told by his 4.00 FIP and 5.73 K/9. As expected, his numbers fell in 2014 and he was dealt to Boston in exchange for John Lackey and was pretty mediocre as a starter there too for a little more than a year.

Kelly began the 2016 season as a starter but after an injury, Boston did what most teams do with guys who throw hard, can’t strike anyone, and are coming off an injury. They put him in the bullpen.

His first season in the bullpen was 2017 and it was a huge step in the right direction. His ERA/FIP/xFIP was 2.79/3.49/4.07. His strikeout numbers increased from a number typically in the mid-teens as a starter to 21.9% as a reliever. His ERA/FIP/xFIP in 2018 was 4.39/3.57/4.04 which was better than his numbers as a starter but it does not exactly scream excitement. He is coming off a dominant postseason to his credit which essentially showed the ceiling that Kelly possesses.

Contract

A dominant postseason does not guarantee anyone a huge contract, just ask Daniel Murphy. Kelly will likely be seen as a high walk reliever with a middling strikeout rate but one that can also break into a dominant reliever at some point. He has all the tools to be a great reliever but has not shown enough to get the contract of one. I’d imagine he wants a two-year deal and will likely get $5-to-$6 million annually.

My Suggestion

Kelly makes sense if the Mets plan on adding a reliever from the tier above him and also add other interesting pitchers to the roster. Kelly by himself would not represent a large enough upgrade to the Mets bullpen.

Put it another way, Joe Kelly should be a contending teams third or fourth best reliever. If he joins the Mets as they are currently, he would be the second best reliever. On the Red Sox, Kelly was behind Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes on the depth chart and in the postseason, he was more of a number four guy given how Alex Cora deployed his bullpen. That’s not to say Kelly couldn’t elevate himself into the status of being an elite reliever. He just has not proven that he is one over the course of a regular season yet.