Joe Kelly
Position: RP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Date of Birth: 6/9/1988 (33)
Traditional Stats: 48 G, 2.86 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 50 K, 15 BB, 44 IP
Advanced Stats: 0.7 WAR, 10.2 K/9, 3.08 FIP, 144 ERA+
Rundown
Joe Kelly was drafted in the third round of the 2009 MLB Draft out of the University of California by the St. Louis Cardinals. The right-hander was mainly used as a starter early on in his minor and big league career.
He cracked the big leagues in June of 2012, taking Jaime Garcia’s place in the Cardinals rotation. He made his first career start the day after his 24th birthday and held Cleveland to just one run while striking out seven over five innings.
Kelly went on to make 24 appearances (16 starts) his rookie season and pitched well for the Cardinals. He posted a 3.53 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and struck out 75 batters over 107 innings pitched.
Kelly was included on the postseason roster and made appearances during both the NLDS and NLCS. He split the next season between the bullpen and the rotation but continued the success from his inaugural campaign.
Kelly made 37 outings (15 starts) and went 10-5 with a solid 2.69 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.01 FIP, and struck out 79 batters while walking just 44 over 124 innings pitched.
He made postseason starts during the NLDS, NLCS, and World Series that season. Kelly allowed two runs while walking three and striking out six over 5.1 innings pitched in his first career World Series outing against the Red Sox.
Speaking of Boston, Kelly was traded there at the 2014 deadline with Allen Craig for John Lackey and Corey Littrell.
He spent most of the season on the disabled list, but made 17 starts on the year and pitched to a 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.37 FIP, with 66 strikeouts. For the first time in his career, Kelly’s team did not make the postseason.
Kelly was oft-injured during the 2015 season, and he endured the worst year of his career. The injury bug got him again in 2016, and by the end of the year, he made the transition to pitching full-time out of the bullpen.
Kelly returned to the postseason with the Sox that year, and he made three appearances as a reliever, recording a trio of strikeouts.
Pitching out of the Boston bullpen in 2017, Kelly put together one of the best seasons of his 10-year career. He made 54 appearances and posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.49 FIP, and allowed just three home runs while striking out 52 batters.
Kelly played a key part in helping the Red Sox secure the 2018 title. He made eight appearances during the postseason, including a total of six shutout innings with ten strikeouts in the World Series.
The hard-throwing reliever must’ve made a good impression on the Dodgers during the series, as they signed him to a three-year deal that offseason. Kelly struggled early on in his tenure in LA, but with a few tweaks became a dominant reliever again.
During the first half of the season, he recorded a 5.28 ERA over 30 innings pitched. Kelly was able to make some changes and turned things around to the tune of a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over 20 second-half innings.
He pitched well in a small sample size during the pandemic shortened season. Kelly then underwent shoulder surgery to remove a cyst, and wasn’t able to return to the mound until May.
However, when he did return, Kelly put together one of his best seasons as a Dodger. The 33-year old right-hander saw a slight velocity increase and threw his changeups 115 times, the most he’s thrown since joining the Dodgers.
Kelly made 48 appearances and posted a 2.86 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 3.08 FIP, while allowing just three home runs and issuing 15 walks.
During the postseason Kelly made seven appearances. During his seventh and final appearance, Kelly was serving as the opener in Game 5 of the NLCS when he left injured and was shut down.
Kelly has a nice four-pitch arsenal consisting of a curveball, sinker, changeup, fastball. This past season he threw his curve 43% of the time, and both his fastball and sinker touched as high as 98 MPH.
Contract
The last contract Kelly signed with the Dodgers in December of 2018 was for three-year, $27 million. That deal included a $12 million option for this upcoming season, however, LA declined it, making Kelly a free agent.
As I mentioned above, Kelly left Game 5 of the NLCS injured and was shut down for the remainder of the postseason. After evaluation from team doctors, it was determined Kelly suffered a biceps strain.
Despite the injury, he is expected to be fully healthy and ready to roll for Spring Training. Kelly will be turning 34-years old this season but has still been relatively productive over the past few seasons.
Fangraphs crowdsourced results project Kelly to receive a two-year deal worth around $14 million. The hard-throwing righty should be a hot commodity when the lockout is lifted, with both the Dodgers and Cardinals likely showing interest in a potential reunion.
Recommendation
The bullpen is one of the biggest remaining needs for the Mets once the lockout is finally lifted. Kelly is one of the top relievers sitting out there, and he is definitely a guy the Mets should take a look at.
For starters, Kelly has shown he has what it takes to pitch in a big market. He’s been a successful reliever in his stints with both the Dodgers and Red Sox. Kelly would also bring valuable postseason experience to this Mets bullpen.
Kelly has made a postseason appearance in eight of his ten big league seasons and is a two-time World Series champ. Over that span, he has made 40 outings and posted a 3.55 ERA with 52 strikeouts over 58 innings of postseason baseball.
As currently constructed, the only reliever in the Mets bullpen with postseason experience is Trevor May. The veteran Kelly could be a nice pickup just on that aspect alone.
On top of that, similar to the May signing last offseason, Kelly takes the mound with the energy and intensity to thrive in New York. He wants the ball in his hands in any situation, pitches with no fear, and doesn’t back down from anybody.
If Kelly were to sign here, I could see him becoming a fan favorite very quickly, as was the case in both Boston and Los Angeles. Joe Kelly is definitely a name Billy Eppler and company should take a look at when the lockout is lifted.
