Javier Báez
Position: 2B/SS
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 28 (12/1/92)
Traditional Stats: 138 games, .265/.319/.494, 18 2B, 31 HR, 87 RBI
Advanced Stats: 116 wRC+, 3.6 fWAR, 4.5 bWAR .344 wOBA, 5.1 BB%, 33.6 K%
Defensive Stats: -0.6 UZR, 3 OAA
Rundown
Javier Báez has been one of baseball’s most exciting players since becoming a regular in the Chicago Cubs lineup in 2016. The Puerto Rican shortstop is known for his all-or-nothing approach at the plate and his ability to make highlights anywhere on the field. His newfound plate discipline after joining the Mets has put him in an interesting spot amongst the big free agent shortstops.
In 47 games with the Mets, Báez hit .299/.371/.515 with nine home runs. While the power is nothing new, that on-base percentage would shatter his career high of .326 if he were able to sustain it. He drew 13 walks in his short time in New York, which is nearly half way to his career high of 30 for a season. In his best years in 2018 and 2019, Báez did it all at the plate. Despite the high strikeout rates, he was able to hit for average and power. If that version of Báez can add plate discipline to his game for an extended period, he could find himself being in MVP discussions again in the future.
Báez’s bat is definitely capable of making headlines, but the nickname “El Mago” was earned with his glove. Báez is a plus-defender at shortstop, second base and third base and is no stranger to making highlight reel plays. He expressed his desire to remain at shortstop if he isn’t playing alongside Francisco Lindor in a Spanish interview with Mega 106.9 FM before the Mets acquired him, but having a proven track record of being able to move around the infield is certainly a plus. Báez won a Gold Glove in 2020 and has won four Fielding Bible Awards over the course of his career. His 77 Outs Above Average since 2016 is fifth in baseball, trailing just Nick Ahmed, Lindor, Andrelton Simmons and Nolan Arenado.
Báez has also shown he can be a game changer on the bases. He is in the 86th percentile in sprint speed according to baseballsavant.com, and he showed how was legs can be a difference maker in his time with the Mets. One of his most famous moments as a Met was when he scored from first on a single against the Marlins before losing his earring. When his speed alone is not enough to get an extra base, he has shown a unique ability to avoid tags at a higher rate than most. While it looks like it may just be luck when he swims around a tag, the number of times he has been able to pull it off in his career proves that it is a skill he has mastered. He also stole 18 bases in 2021, just three shy of his career high of 21 from 2018.
Overall, Báez has shown an ability to change a game in a number of different ways. While he is not a perfect player, his combination of average, power, speed and defense should make him highly sought after in the free agent market. If teams believe his plate discipline is real and not just a product of a small sample size, he could end up being the most intriguing short stop on the market.
Contract
With teams rumored to be hesitant to give Carlos Correa or Corey Seager $300 million dollar contracts, Báez’s market could heat up quickly. Any team looking to add a shortstop could look towards Báez or Trevor Story at a lesser cost.
Projections for Báez’s next contract range from 5 years for $100 million to 7 years for $150 million. With questions surrounding Báez’s ability to keep up his plate discipline, it is difficult to estimate how far teams will go. More teams looking to avoid a mega-contract at shortstop could certainly help Báez get top dollar in that range.
Recommendation
Bringing Báez back to Queens should be a top priority for the Mets. After the reported signings of Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha and Starling Marte, the last remaining position for the Mets to take care of besides pitching is second base. The best option to fill that spot is sticking with their own guy. Báez made it clear that he wanted to play with Lindor before the Mets acquired him, and the success they both had while playing together should make it a no-brainer.
(As of publishing, the Mets were reportedly apart on price with Báez with regards to bringing him back.)
Although it is unknown if Báez can maintain the changes he made when he arrived in New York, the beauty of having the richest owner in the sport is he can afford to take that chance. If Báez can continue with the improved plate discipline, he can easily be the biggest steal of this crop of free agents. If he reverts back into the more free-swinging version of himself that we saw for all those years in Chicago, he will still be valuable and the contract shouldn’t be a backbreaker.
