Collin McHugh

Position: SP/RP
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: June 19, 1987 (32)

Traditional Stats: 4-5, 4.70 ERA, 1.232 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, 9.9 K/9
Advanced Stats: 0.4 bWAR, 0.5 fWAR, 4.43 FIP, 99 ERA+

Sometimes, you don’t know what you have. McHugh is case in point of that. While the Mets may have drafted him in the 18th round of the 2008 draft, and he would make his Major League debut with the team, the team did not see him as a real part of their future as they would trade him to the Colorado Rockies for Eric Young Jr.

Like the Mets, the Rockies didn’t know what they had in McHugh as they designated him for assignment nearly six months to the day they obtained him. While the Mets and Rockies didn’t know what they had in McHugh, the Houston Astros did.

In 2014, John Sickels, then of Minor League Ball, would call McHugh a “sleeper who woke up.” We didn’t know it at the time, but like with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, McHugh was the first pitcher the analytically driven Astros would reshape and turn into a much better pitcher than believed.

As noted by Fangraphs, this was the result of McHugh changing his release points and his delivery. As a result, he had an increased fastball velocity. This created a greater velocity difference between his fastball and secondary pitches. The following year, Eno Sarris, then of Fangraphs, would note McHugh started throwing his four-seam fastball more and began working more north and south in the zone.

The end result of the things he learned in the Mets system and the analytics of the Astros, McHugh would finish fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, and he would finish eighth in the Cy Young voting in 2015. That year, McHugh was the second starter for an Astros team who surprised everyone going from a 92 loss team to beating the Yankees in the Wild Card Game.

McHugh had a solid 2016 season, which was also his last time throwing at least 75 innings in a season. There were two reasons for that. First and foremost, McHugh would deal with tendinitis in his pitching shoulder and have elbow tightness. Between those injuries and the Astros having acquired the aforementioned Verlander and Cole, there was no longer room for McHugh in the rotation.

In 2018, McHugh thrived in the bullpen. He was top 30 in the league in fWAR, innings, K/9, K%, FIP, and K/BB%. His 1.99 ERA was the sixth-best among Major League relievers. Long story, short, he was a real weapon in the bullpen.

However, as Charlie Morton would depart the Astros for the Rays in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. undergoing Tommy John surgery at the end of the 2018 season, McHugh needed to rejoin the Astros rotation.

Things would not go well for McHugh as he would battle injuries all year long. First, he would lose his rotation spot, and then later, he would be shut down for the year with elbow soreness. That elbow soreness evidenced itself with McHugh experiencing reduced velocity on his fastball.

This all came at a bad time for McHugh was he is about to hit free agency. That leaves much up in the air for him because no one can be quite sure how healthy he will be next year or what role is best for him and his new team.

Contract

Last offseason, Marco Estrada and Matt Shoemaker were talented albeit injury prone pitchers who would hit free agency. The two starters would sign one-year deals worth $4 million and $3.5 million respectively. Shelby Miller, who was slightly younger than the other starters would sign a one year deal for $2 million.

Looking at these comparable starters and McHugh’s injury history, it is very possible he is going to have to settle for a one-year deal, too. With McHugh being a better pitcher than the aforementioned, we could expect him to sign for more money. Likely, this would put him above the $4 million figure Estrada made, but likely lower than the one year $10 million deal Matt Harvey signed with the Angels.

In the end, whether McHugh gets a comparable one year deal or a multi-year deal is going depend on his physicals and just how many teams are going to get scared off by his dealing with elbow issues in two of his last three years.

Recommendation

The Mets need pitching in the worst way. They need someone to replace Zack Wheeler in the rotation, and they are going to need to rebuild the bullpen. On both fronts, the Mets are going to have to weigh moving Seth Lugo back into the rotation much like the Astros did with McHugh this year.

If the Mets were going to contemplate that move, McHugh could take over Lugo’s role. It’s also possible McHugh could become the fifth starter. Perhaps, the Mets could really strengthen the bullpen by unleashing both McHugh and Lugo. Doing that could help ease the usage rates of both pitchers making them stronger and the bullpen better as a whole.

Overall, if McHugh is able to pitch in 2020, he could give the Mets options on how to handle both the starting rotation and the bullpen. It also could not hurt to have someone who pitched for the Astros come to the Mets and share some of the things he has learned. All told, McHugh is a very good fit for this Mets team, but only if he is healthy.