Carlos Rodón

Position: Starting Pitcher
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 29 (12/10/1992)
2022 Traditional Stats: 31 GS, 178.0 IP, 2.88 ERA, 1.028 WHIP, 14-8 W/L, 237 K, 52 BB
2022 Advanced Stats: 140 ERA+, 33.4 K%, 7.3 BB%, 2.64 xERA, 2.25 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 6.2 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR

Rundown

Carlos Rodon is a left-handed starting pitcher and an eight-year MLB veteran. Rodón, the third-overall pick in the 2014 MLB Draft, had a quick rise to the majors making his major league debut at 22 years old for the Chicago White Sox in 2015.

Rodón enjoyed early success. Rodón made 23 starts in his rookie season, pitched to a 3.75 ERA, and showed his potential with a complete-game victory. Rodón’s career would stagnate while in Chicago. The lefty struggled to match his potential and ability while battling injuries, including undergoing Tommy John in 2019 and only making four starts in the shortened 2020 season. Rodón was non-tendered by the White Sox but ultimately rejoined them on a one-year, $3 million deal for 2021.

That’s when things changed.

Rodón earned every penny of his one-year redemption deal. On April 14, 2021, he threw a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians. He was named an All-Star for the first time. And he finished the season in fifth place for the Cy Young Award, posting a 13-5 record with a 2.37 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 132.2 innings pitched.

Rodón hit the open market last season, inking a 2-year, $44 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. Rodon showed that 2021 was no fluke. He made the All-Star Team for the second straight season and broke Tim Lincecum‘s team record for most double-digit strikeout games in a season with 11.

Now Rodón has an option. He can opt-in and stay with the Giants for 2023 while making $22.5 million. Or he can get out of his contract a season early and hit the market. The Giants weren’t able to replicate their magic of 2021 but are willing to spend this offseason to compete. Rodón still needs to officially opt out but is certainly in line for a raise.

Contract

Rodón is represented by Scott Boras. Under Steve Cohen, the Mets have seemed to become at least friendly with the mega agent. Knowing the way Boras and his clients operate, it’s expected Rodon will opt out of his deal.

Giants president Farhan Zaidi even said, “obviously we fully anticipate Carlos to opt-out and that will create an opening on our pitching staff.”

Zaidi said there is communication between the parties that there is mutual interest in a return. There’s also an interest in returning to Chicago but on the other side with the Cubs. Per ESPN Chicago’s David Kaplan, Rodón loved pitching in Chicago and is a team that needs a top-of-the-rotation arm.

It’s clear there will be competition for Rodón’s talents this winter. Competition in the market means adding years to a deal to further entice a veteran like Rodón.

Coming off back-to-back All-Star seasons, Rodón should eclipse the mark of $22.5 million AAV he made this past season. A raise in the range of $28-32 million per season is certainly not out of the question.

Best guess is a four-year, $125 million deal.

Recommendation

Adding Rodón is admittance and acceptance that you’re not bringing Jacob deGrom back to your baseball team. It’s really a question of who you think will have the better part of the next four years. Rodón is younger but no one calls him the best pitcher in baseball.

If you do add Rodón and keep deGrom then you let go Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Carlos Carrasco and roll into the season with awful pitching depth. That’s something the Mets know they’ll need.

I would sign Rodon to be a Met if deGrom and Bassitt choose to move on elsewhere. The Mets are a win-now team and will have to keep spending on premier pitching after failing to show any starting pitching development since the days of the touted deGrom, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, etc. rotation. You can’t go into the season with Max Scherzer, David Peterson, and Tylor Megill and two more mid-level starters. They need an ace like Rodón.