Blake Snell

Position: SP
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 31 in 2024 (12/4/1992)

2023 Traditional Stats: 32 G, 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 234 K, 180 IP
2023 Advanced Stats: 4.1 fWAR, 6.0 bWAR, 3.44 FIP, 3.77 xERA, 10.9 BB%, 29.7 K%

Rundown

Blake Snell is going to win the National League Cy Young in November.

In a contract year, Snell put together his best season in five years—the last time he won a Cy Young or was even really in contention for one.

Spanning 32 starts and 180 innings, the southpaw notched a 2.25 ERA and struck out 31.5% of the batters he faced. He was a lone bright spot for the Padres, who just never seemed to be able to consistently good outings from their pitchers and offense at the same time. When Snell was on the mound, though, the Padres didn’t have to worry much.

Snell allowed more than three earned runs just twice (four and six runs) across his 32 starts, and those both came in the first seven weeks of the season. He actually didn’t start all that hot, allowing multiple earned runs in each of his first nine starts. But from May 25 on (his 10th start of the year), Snell allowed just 18 earned runs over 135 innings. That’s a 1.20 ERA! He allowed nine more earned runs in his first nine starts (27 ERs) than he did in his final 23 (18 ERs)!

One of those brilliant starts came on July 8 against the Mets, where he blanked the Mets over six innings, racking up 11 strikeouts in the process. At the time, it was his fifth double-digit strikeout performance in six starts. It was also just one of 13 (!!) scoreless outing over the year.

Snell’s biggest moment the last half-decade was all about what he didn’t get the chance to do: pitch through six innings while he was hot. (It also turned out to be his last moment with the Rays.) He was pulled after 5.1 innings, the Dodgers promptly scored two runs, and then won the World Series. This year, Snell pitched six innings in 20 of his 32 starts and in 11 of his 13 scoreless outings.

And all of this was impressive while his walk numbers reached the highest of his career—his 13.3% walk rate was the highest among qualified starters. But he also finished second to Spencer Strider in strikeout rate. His defense and some batted ball luck certainly helped deflate his ERA, but there’s no doubting that Snell was the best—and most consistent—starter in the National League this year.

Contract

Because of that, Snell will look to get paid handsomely this offseason.

There is debate as to who among  will get the largest starting pitching contract this offseason.

The most similar comparison for Snell might be Carlos Rodón, who entered free agency at a similar age and off a strong season. Though Rodón might have a deeper injury history than Snell, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Snell get around the six years and $162 million ($27 million) Rodón got. Other pitchers like Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray earned around $23 million per year in their deals a couple of offseasons ago.

Whatever the final years and numbers are, expect Snell to be paid more than any other starter—outside of potentially Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is nearly six years Snell’s junior.

I’ll settle on a guess of six years and $155 million.

Recommendation

Given that number, should the Mets try to sign Snell?

Of course they should try. But I’m not sure Snell profiles out as a front-line starter worth close to $30 million per year into his mid- and late 30s. He walks a lot of guys, and while expected stats aren’t the end-all, be-all, there was a pretty big difference between his expected ERA, slugging, batting average, and more and the actual results. That could suggest some regression to the low to mid-3s ERA moving forward.

Could he be a really good second starter on a team? Sure, but someone who wins the Cy Young certainly won’t view himself as that—especially heading into his last big pay day.

The Mets need an anchor in their rotation, and Snell could be a good fit. But would it be worth that long-term commitment? I don’t think so. If they’re going after a big money starter, Yamamoto makes a little more sense—if anything, purely off upside. He’s only 25, and a six-year deal would take you to… about the age Snell is now. Yamamoto is ideally entering his prime rather than in the middle of it.

But, as David Stearns gets his era of Mets baseball going, I doubt anything is off the table. He’ll have the opportunity to spend if he wants to.