Anthony Rizzo

Position: First Baseman
Bats/Throws: L/L
Age: 33 (08/09/1989)

2022 Traditional Stats: 130 G, 548 plate appearances, .224/.338/.480/.817, 32 HR, 75 RBI, 104 H
2022 Advanced Stats: 131 OPS+, 132 wRC+, 2.3 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR, .216 BABiP, 10.6% BB%, 18.4% K%, .349 xwOBA, -3 DRS, -3 OAA

Rundown

After spending almost a decade in the Northside of Chicago, Anthony Rizzo came over to the Bronx in a trade last summer and continued to be productive in his first full season in pinstripes in 2022. Despite playing in just 130 games, Rizzo tied a career high with 32 homers, crossing the 30-homer threshold for the first time since 2017. Part of the reason for this uptick in power was a big spike in his fly ball rate, which jumped from 27.1% to a career-high 35%. Rizzo’s .256 ISO and 19.3-degree average launch angle are the highest marks of his career as well. The 33-year-old also recorded 40 barrels, the most he’s had since 2017. While his strikeout rate increased to a still respectable 18.4%, Rizzo’s walk rate jumped back up to 10.6% after falling into single digits last year.

While it was a great year in the power department for Rizzo, his game took a step back in a few categories. His .224 batting average is the lowest mark he’s registered over a full season, and while one could attribute that to his career-low .216 BABiP, his .239 xBA isn’t too encouraging. However, his 41% hard-hit rate and .374 xwOBACON indicate that Rizzo is still making decent contact. Rizzo’s defense also took a step back, registering negative-3 DRS and ranking in just the 17th percent of Outs Above Average.

Once one of the league’s best hitters against fastballs, Rizzo regained some of his old form by registering a plus-8 run value against four-seamers with a 50.8% hard-hit rate. He also hit 18 of his homers against fastballs. Rizzo was solid in the Yankees’ postseason run, going 8-for-30 with two homers, two doubles, five walks, and eight RBIs.

Oct 16, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo (48) reacts after game four of the ALDS against the Cleveland Guardians for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Contract

Rizzo opted out of the final year of his two-year contract with the Yankees, in which he was due to make $16 million. The Yankees have extended him a qualifying offer, which is worth $19.65 million this year. Should he accept it, Rizzo will remain in the Bronx for another season. If he declines, the Yankees will be entitled to draft pick compensation if the three-time All-Star chooses to sign elsewhere.

Spotrac.com estimates Rizzo to be worth a three-year contract and $64.2 million. The $21.4 million average-annual salary would be the third-highest for a first baseman next year, trailing Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt, and narrowly edging out Matt Olson.

Rizzo will be 33 for most of next season, and his power surge in 2022 gives clubs reason to believe he can continue to be productive in 2023. While not every ballpark has a short porch in right field like Yankee Stadium, it’s reasonable to expect Rizzo to hit between 25 and 30 home runs next season. Given his decline in defense though, he might not be able to play first base much longer, which could make teams hesitant to give him longer than a two-year contract or pay him upwards of $20 million per year.

Recommendation

The Mets already have Pete Alonso locked in at first base for the next couple of years, leaving Rizzo no spot on the infield. While they still have a hole at the DH spot, it’s unlikely Rizzo would sign a contract to strictly be a DH. Unless he’s willing to play first base only occasionally, it’s hard to imagine Rizzo in Flushing next year.