Series Preview: Mets Host the Cubs

After a dramatic walk-off victory over the Cardinals on Sunday, the New York Mets (14-13) will host the Chicago Cubs (17-11) for a four-game series.

Despite losing the first two games of their series against the Cardinals, the Mets bounced back on Sunday with a winning effort. Jose Quintana paved the way with eight brilliant innings, providing the Mets bullpen with much-needed rest ahead of this four-game series. Consequently, the bats came alive when Harrison Bader singled, and Mark Vientos homered in extra innings to avoid the sweep.

As for the Cubs, they also lost their latest series, headlined by a humiliating 17-run loss to the Red Sox on Saturday. With the recent injury suffered by Cody Bellinger, the Cubs’ offense is trending downward heading into this series. Former Mets prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong was recalled to replace Bellinger and has looked sharp to begin his 2024 season.

The Mets and the Cubs have some ground to make up in their respective divisions, so this should make for an interesting series.

Let’s preview the upcoming pitching matchups!

Monday, April 29, 2024: RHP Jameson Taillon (2-0, 1.69 ERA) vs. RHP Luis Severino (2-2, 2.67 ERA)

Jameson Taillon will pitch for the Cubs on Monday. Despite his lack of strikeouts to begin the season, Taillon has relied heavily on his control and ability to avoid barrels. He ranks in the 86th percentile in walk rate and the 88th percentile in barrel rate. One potential catalyst for his good fortune is his decrease in sinker usage, from 10.4 percent last year to just 1.9 percent in 2024. This has allowed his fastball to gain more usage, and batters are hitting just .143 against it this season. Taillon enters the action on Monday with a career 2.33 ERA against the Mets.

Luis Severino will open the series for the Mets. Severino has been a major revelation for the Mets this season, collecting a quality start his last time out against the Giants. The main difference for Severino has been the effectiveness of his fastball. Last season, hitters were very successful against the pitch, batting .355 with a .692 slugging percentage. Consequently, opponents are batting just .222 against it this season with a .267 slugging percentage. 

His fastball spin rate, velocity and usage rate are nearly identical to last season’s numbers, so it is unclear whether those figures correlate to this success. However, Severino’s ground ball rate has jumped by over 13 percent from 2023 to 2024, showing that he is generating more favorable contact. Severino has a solid track record against the Cubs, with a 1.38 ERA against them in his career.

Tuesday, April 30, 2024: RHP Javier Assad (2-0, 2.00 ERA) vs. LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.33 ERA)

Javier Assad will pitch on Tuesday for the Cubs. Assad has been among the best in run prevention, ranking in the 95th percentile in pitching run value and the 96th percentile for fastball run value. With a hard-hit rate of just 27.5 percent, Assad places in the 91st percentile among qualified pitchers. While Assad’s calling card is not the strikeout, he is adept at limiting hard contact. His sinker, which he uses primarily, has generated an average exit velocity of just 78.8 mph to start the season. In Assad’s only start against the Mets in his career, he tossed six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts.

Sean Manaea will pitch for the Mets on Tuesday. While he has been inconsistent to start the year, his decision to use the sinker as his primary pitch has paid off. Opponents are batting just .161 against it, compared to their .286 average against his four-seam fastball. By cutting his four-seam fastball usage by nearly 40 percent, Manaea has allowed his more effective pitches to shine, including a sweeper that has generated a 50 percent whiff rate this year. Manaea enters the game with a career 4.67 ERA against the Cubs across four starts.

Wednesday, May 1, 2024: LHP Shota Imanaga (4-0, 0.98 ERA) vs. RHP José Buttó (0-1, 2.86 ERA)

Shota Imanaga has been highly impressive to start his MLB career. He mainly relies on a four-seam fastball and a split-finger, occasionally incorporating a sweeper, curveball, and sinker. His split finger has been effective early, with a whiff rate of 42.9 percent. Further, Imanaga has been adept at limiting walks, with a walk rate of just 2.8 percent, placing him in the 94th percentile. While he is not known for the strikeout, he has amassed a chase rate of 37.6 percent, which places him in the 96th percentile in that statistic. His ability to deceive hitters, combined with his precise control, has contributed to his success with the Cubs.

José Buttó will start for the Mets on Wednesday. Like Manaea, Buttó has increased his sinker usage, yielding good results. Opponents are batting just .125 against the sinker, which he has used 22.4 percent of the time compared to just 5.6 percent last year. This has allowed his fastball to gain more prominence, as it has generated a whiff rate of 34 percent while being used 32.7 percent of the time. Buttó’s main struggles have come in walks and hard contact. His 13.3 percent walk rate and 50 percent hard-hit rate are among the worst around the league and have led to some problems in his outings. He enters Wednesday’s contest with a chip on his shoulder, as the team awaits the return of starting pitcher Tylor Megill from an injury.

Thursday, May 2, 2024: RHP Ben Brown (0-1, 4.30 ERA) vs. RHP Adrian Houser (0-3, 8.37 ERA)

Ben Brown will pitch for the Cubs on Thursday. The rookie has spent time as both a reliever and starter this season, and it appears he will be acting as a starter on Thursday. He relies on a fastball and a knuckle curve, with the occasional changeup. While his fastball has been largely ineffective, his knuckle curve has held opponents to a .167 batting average with a whiff rate of 40.6 percent. Accordingly, he ranks in the 94th percentile for breaking run value, and the 31st percentile for fastball run value. Besides a six-inning outing earlier this year, Brown has not reached the five-inning mark in any of his other starts.

Adrian Houser will pitch on Thursday for the Mets. Houser’s struggles have been well-documented this season, especially given the aforementioned impending return of Tylor Megill. As for why Houser is off to such a horrendous start, his walk rate of 14 percent is partly to blame. Further, his barrel rate has gone up, and his ground ball rate has decreased, indicating that Houser is generating unfavorable contact this year. Interestingly, his four-seam fastball has been his most effective pitch, despite Houser using it just 16.4 percent of the time. Perhaps he should shy away from the sinker in favor of the four-seam fastball to change his fortunes against the Cubs, who he has a career 3.74 ERA against.

Players to Watch

Mark Vientos (NYM)

Mark Vientos has made the most of his limited opportunity in Queens this year after being recalled from Syracuse. He has three hits in four at-bats, including a timely walk-off home run on Sunday to give the Mets the victory. The home run traveled 404 feet with an exit velocity of 105.8 mph, showcasing Vientos’ raw power.

When asked about Vientos’ clutch home run, manager Carlos Mendoza indicated that the third baseman will likely be in the lineup on Monday. With a massive chip on his shoulder, Vientos will continue making the most of his opportunity in this series.

Michael Busch (CHC)

Michael Busch is off to a great start for the Cubs after struggling in his 2023 campaign. He is batting .278/.340/.522 with six home runs in 103 plate appearances. Everything has been clicking for Busch, who has decreased his ground ball rate from 58.7 percent in 2023 to just 27.6 percent this year. Also, his barrel rate of 17.2 percent places him in the 95th percentile among qualified hitters. He has hit fastballs particularly well, batting .327 against them, including three of his six home runs.

Busch has struggled in the strikeout department, with a K rate of 32.3 percent and a whiff rate of 29.2 percent. Many of these swings-and-misses have come from the breaking or offspeed pitches, as Busch has a whiff rate of 38 percent on breaking balls and 40.5 percent on offspeed. So, expect Mets pitchers to provide Busch with a steady diet of breaking and offspeed pitches, as his dead-red approach has brought him much success early on.