Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Position: LHP
Bats/Throws: R/L
Age: 6/17/1990 (32)
Traditional Stats: 64 G, 2-3, 2.83 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 67 K, 57.1 IP
Advanced Stats: 0.9 fWAR, 3.06 FIP, 2.92 xERA, 7.8 BB%, 27.6 K%
Rundown
Andrew Chafin was drafted in the first round of the 2011 MLB Draft by the Arizona Diamondbacks. He began his career as a starter and after a few successful minor league campaigns, received a cup of coffee in the big leagues towards the end of 2014.
He was quickly transformed into more of a reliever the next season, and he ended up having a very solid year. Chafin made 66 appearances out of the Diamondbacks bullpen and posted a 2.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 58 strikeouts over 75 innings.
Like most of the 69-93 Diamondbacks, Chafin struggled the following year. He made just 32 appearances and posted a 6.75 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and had 28 strikeouts over 22 innings. Despite the struggles, Chafin allowed just one home run on the season.
The southpaw bounced back in 2017 with a 71 appearance campaign. He allowed just five home runs, issued just 11 walks, and struck out 61 batters while posting a 3.51 ERA in 51 innings.
He made 77 appearances each of the next two seasons, pitched to a combined 3.44 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.96 FIP, and struck out 121 batters. With the three batter rule being put into place, Chafin struggled during their first half of the 2020 season.
He was traded to the Cubs at the deadline, where he put together a decent small sample size. He re-signed with Chicago on a one-year, $2.25 million deal with a mutual option for this season during the offseason.
Chafin returned to his old dominant form during the first half of the year. He was again traded at the deadline, this time to the Oakland Athletics, where he continued his strong 2021 campaign.
He finished the year with 70+ appearances again (71) and posted a career-low 1.83 ERA. He also recorded a 0.93 WHIP, 2.98 FIP, 64 strikeouts, issued 19 walks, and allowed just four home runs.
Coming off another strong year he entered free agency. He chose to sign a one-year $6.5 million deal with a player option for 2023 with the Detroit Tigers. The Mets were rumored to be interested.
He relies on four pitches; low-90s sinker, low-90s fastball, mid-80s slider, and mid-80s changeup.
Contract
Back in November, MLB Trade Rumors projected Chagin to get a two-year, $18 million deal. Chafin is coming off the two best seasons of his career and is currently the top lefty on the market.
Chafin’s market has been slow to develop. He initially came out saying he’d be interested in a return to Detroit and not much buzz has been generated since. It’s possible that teams are waiting for the 60-Day IL designations to open up spots on their 40-man roster to sign a player like Chafin.
The Mets are clearly ready to spend for top-of-the-line bullpen help but finding a proper late-inning role for him won’t be as easy with the money he eventually demands.
Recommendation
Should the Mets sign Chafin? Yes. Will they? Likely, no. It’s unfortunate but looking at their projected bullpen, there are no “late-inning” roles open with Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson, and Brooks Raley lined up.
Although only two lefties – Raley and David Peterson – are estimated to be in the pen right now, the addition of Chafin would make the Mets bullpen a demonstrable force.
Chafin’s name has circled the Mets for what feels like an eternity. At every free agency period or trade deadline, his name has popped up in talks. The Mets just seem hesitant to pull the trigger.
The Mets expect the return of left Joey Lucchesi to the pen after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Is that good enough a reason to not build out what could be the best bullpen in baseball? No. Nor is it what fans want to hear. Chafin should be a Met with the scarcity of left-handed relief help on the market but he doesn’t seem like the player even Steve Cohen is willing to break the bank again and again for.
