An MMO Fan Shot by John Sasso
Editors Note: This Fan Shot was written before the Mets announced they had signed Bartolo Colon. There’s still some value here and I hope you appreciate the work John put into this.
With the recent trade of Jon Niese, the Mets enter the 2016 season needing a fifth starter. With realistic playoff aspirations a cut above the typical minor league free agents should be a priority, while the eventual return of Zack Wheeler should preclude shopping on the higher end of the free agent market. With the escalating costs of mediocre back end starters (Mike Pelfrey, two-years, $16 million?) shopping for bargains has gotten a lot more difficult.
Listed below are the options that are readily available that I arbitrarily decided should get a major league contract at or below $10 million.
Bartolo Colon – The “BIG Sexy”; his signing was widely criticized at the time, yet all he did was provide family fun entertainment while pitching 397 innings. While he ate up some of the leagues weaker lineups he did provide some gems when the team needed those most. What to expect in 2016 is the same lovable yet fallible pitcher we have watched over the last two seasons. Fangraphs has him getting 1 year, $10M
Mat Latos – Had a horrible 2015, but prior to that was an above average pitcher. A career low LOB% and a career high BABIP appear to be outliers, as his K/9, BB/9 and type of contact trended towards his career averages. He has gotten away from using the slider, throwing less than 20% of the time for the first time in his career, in favor of what Fangraphs is classifying a splitter. A solid rebound candidate, who with a season under Dan Warthen could improve his stock going into a much less crowded FA class in 2016. Fangraphs is a bit overly optimistic in my view at 2 years and $22 million, I have him at one year with a $6 million guarantee and incentives that can bring it up to $10M.
Tim Lincecum – The former multi-Cy Young winner has been a shell of his former self since 2011. The last few years have seen him reduced to a back end starter/long man. Recovering from hip surgery, he is expected to hold a showcase next month to demonstrate his progress. It doesn’t sound hopeful that he will be ready by opening day. Fangraphs has him at 1 year, $6M
Cliff Lee – Another former Cy Young winner on the mend, Lee has recently been given the all-clear by doctors that he is healthy enough to pitch in 2016. I haven’t heard of a showcase on schedule, but it would be a safe assumption one will be announced shortly. He reportedly wants to sign with a winning team. Jon Heyman recently tweeted “probably gets more than you’d think” in regards to the salary expectations. Not listed among the Fangraphs top 82, I would expect a $3M base with heavy incentives based on starts and innings pitched.
Henderson Alvarez – Has up to a dozen teams showing interest. He has youth and the recent track record that justify the amount of attention he is garnering at the moment. Though with the expectation that he will miss the start of the 2016 season, and with shoulders being less reliably rebuilt than elbows (ask Johan) Alvarez doesn’t fit what the Mets need. He was due to make around $4M in arbitration before he was non-tendered, a deal in that range should still be enough to bring him in.
Justin Masterson – The enigmatic starter hasn’t touched 200 IP since 2012, and hasn’t performed above league average since 2013. He reportedly has as many as five suitors. Masterson’s stuff can be tantalizing, even if the results are incongruous. I imagine most pitching coaches believe they can fix him, which then leads me to comp him to Zambrano, which is enough to scare me away. Somehow got $9.5 last season, anything more than $5M would be an overpay.
Doug Fister – Another decent pitcher who had a down season in 2015. Fister signing on a one year deal to put himself back on the market next offseason makes a ton of sense. The velocity dip is cause for concern, especially for a pitcher who never threw that hard to begin with. He appears to have a fair amount of teams looking at him to rebound, probably just enough to price him out of a typical rebound contract. I think he signs a 1 year, $10M somewhere, a little too rich for my taste.
Bronson Arroyo – He was always a frequent target during the 2013 and 2014 off-seasons. At the time, the big selling point was his consistent health and durability. All of that changed with TJS in 2014. Traded twice this previous season, he finds himself on the mend and looking for work. I would imagine at his advanced age, playing for a winner would be among his top priorities. He could conceivably replace Colon’s production, just not as entertaining. A major league contract could be enough to bring him into camp Let’s say $1 million with lots of incentives.
Brandon Morrow – A very enticing arm at one time, never really needed “fixing” it’s just he has never been able to stay healthy. He is once again coming back from injury with a timeline to begin throwing shortly, a deal similar to last season’s, leaning heavily on incentives with minimal cash guarantee appears to be his ceiling.
Five years ago one could have built a rotation that would be the envy of the league with this list, but today it doesn’t add up to much. The volatility of a pitcher’s health is all the more reason to have additional arms on hand to start the year. Most teams typically use about 7-8 different starting pitchers in a season. In 2015, the Mets used ten. While we all hope to see all of the Mets’ Big 5 in the rotation at the same time this season, the probability of that happening for a long duration is probably overly optimistic.
Logan Verrett, Rafael Montero, and Sean Gilmartin could all be in the equation. I for one would feel better about the depth if Verrett and Gilmartin are starting at Triple-A Las Vegas in case they are needed at some point while Wheeler mends. I have seen enough Carlos Torres spot starts over the last few years to know I don’t want to deal with him for a few turns through the rotation.
With all that said I am actually in favor of bringing in two of the above pitchers. While a return of Colon appears to be in the bag, I would lean towards Latos at a lower cost and a higher upside, and I like Morrow knowing the very real possibility he likely ends up in the bullpen.
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