A MMO Fan Shot by Marc M (Not4)

Sure, it would be great if the Mets signed Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto and George Springer, but taking on an additional $80 million of salary for multiple years for players on or near the wrong side of 30 is a dubious move at best, even if it did not put us very close to the luxury tax, without addressing other important areas.

The good news is that it does not require such an over-the-top foray into the FA market to improve this team to be a legitimate playoff contender.

There are several ways to go about it, although signing up to two of the three aforementioned free agents seems to be the easiest way to get there.

With the Mets’ current roster, including recently signed Trevor May, removing Robinson Canó’s $24M salary for 2021, using MLB Trade Rumors’ estimated arbitration numbers, and assuming $600K for most non-arb players, the Mets’ payroll currently stands at approximately $130 million.

While this includes Syndergaard and Matz’s anticipated salaries, it is not clear just how much we can count on either this year, which leaves question marks for two-fifths of our rotation.

One other point to make at the outset, while I really like a lot about the offensive profile of this team as is, and the players seem to have really come together as a team, the reality is that defense does matter, and this team could benefit from a stronger D. So, without further ado, here we go.

Option One:

Sign Trevor Bauer for 2/$64M, George Springer for 5/$125M, James McCann for 3/$36M, Liam Hendriks for 3/$30M.

Would still need to address the last two bench pieces, but assuming the NL keeps the DH (which is no guarantee, but seems perhaps more likely than not), it leaves us with a fairly stout lineup and high-end pitching (both top starters, particularly after Noah Syndergaard comes back, and in the bullpen), albeit with SP less depth than one would prefer for an all-in cost of approximately $198M.

Starting pitchers: Jacob DeGrom, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson and Steven Matz (with Syndergaard replacing Matz as soon as he is ready).

This assumes that we will also a couple of veteran FA pitchers as depth and it is always possible that one could uproot Matz if he pitches like 2020, but in the long run Syndergaard will hopefully be ready to take that last place in the rotation fairly early in the season.

Relief pitchers: Having Hendricks, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, May, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances as potentially six high-leverage pitchers could finally turn our BP into an asset.

The last spot (or two if the roster is still 26) would be filled by some combination of Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith and Miguel Castro (and possibly some other flyer arms that are signed this offseason).

Starting Lineup:

1B Dominic Smith
2B Jeff McNeil
SS Amed Rosario or Andrés Giménez
3B J.D. Davis
RF Michael Conforto
CF George Springer
LF Brandon Nimmo
DH Pete Alonso

Davis is still a bit of a weak link at third base, but his bat plays as does his strong arm, so hoping that he has the ability to improve at the position with more reps.

Plus, having Rosario/Gimenez and Luis Guillorme on the bench allows for late game substitutions. That said, as I believe it is important to improve the overall defense, and as hope is not a true a strategy, that brings me to…

Option Two:

All of the above, except trade J.D. Davis…and Pete Alonso – did I really just say that?

Okay, so I would really only want us to trade Pete if there is no DH in 2021 and it is not clear if the NL will adopt it in the next few years.

The truth is I love virtually everything about Alonso (except his D) and believe last year’s struggles was an aberration and his upside is still enormous. I expect him to be a career .270 hitter or better, which although average is the least of the measures that is important, it hopefully underscores how much of an aberration last year was.

But if the NL is not going with the DH, I’d prefer to see Smith at first base, as I believe Alonso still has tremendous value in a trade. I do not have a specific target in mind, but it does not necessarily have to be a third baseman.

The other option is to trade them for some top-flight young pitching and then perhaps sign DJ LeMahieu to man second base with McNeil sliding over to third.

That would push us up against (and possibly over) the $210 luxury tax threshold as LeMahieu will likely command an AAV of around $18M.

But perhaps we could make a few moves to shed payroll of non-essential players, like Matz, Miguel Castro and Gsellman.

* * * * * * *

This MMO Fan Shot was contributed by diehard Mets fan Marc M (Not4).

* It was submitted before the Mets signed James McCann.

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