MMO Fan Shot: Who Says Cespedes Can't Hit Good Pitching?

An MMO Fan Shot by Peter S.

I have to admit, I can’t believe how many fans are buying into the “Yoenis Cespedes can’t hit good pitching” rhetoric. We are playing right into the Front Office’s hands by believing he is not good and isn’t worth a contract this offseason. Well, I don’t fall into that category. We are letting the Front Office let the best player we’ve ever had (besides Beltran) walk. Ok, Wright in his heyday was better – but you get my point.

So, I decided to do a little bit of research. I didn’t go into OPS as I believe it is not a good stat in small samples as a couple of homeruns can really weigh it in a players favor. Here goes:

The Question:

How would the top nine free agent hitters fare vs the last 10 winners of the Cy Young Award over the previous six seasons from both leagues?

The Cy Young Award Winners:

The Top 9 Free Agent Hitters:

Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Alex Gordon and Denard Span

So I pondered…what would these guys do, over 600 at-bats, vs the top pitchers in the game from the last 6 years? I mean, surely, the Cy Young winners is a good and fair barometer, right? So let’s start with the actual AB vs these pitchers:

Cumulative Numbers:
	H	AB	BA	HR	RBI
Cespedes	41	147	.279	8	20
Upton	23	114	.202	5	13
Heyward	23	86	.267	1	5
Zobrist	40	214	.187	5	15
Murphy	22	74	.297	5	10
Davis	40	153	.261	4	17
Desmond	18	103	.175	3	4
Gordon	52	231	.225	8	25
Span	44	167	.263	1	10

Now, let’s look at each player’s career numbers over 162 games:

Career 162 Game Average:
	H	AB	BA	HR	RBI
Cespedes	172	634	.271	30	103
Upton	161	592	.272	26	84
Heyward	156	583	.268	19	68
Zobrist	156	588	.265	17	77
Murphy	173	602	.287	11	72
Davis	146	574	.254	37	101
Desmond	160	608	.263	19	75
Gordon	163	605	.269	19	75
Span	187	651	.287	6	57

And finally, what would those guys’ numbers look like if they each faced this group of pitchers over 600 at-bats, to me, the best way to judge what that small sample really means:

Numbers over 600 AB
	H	AB	BA	HR	RBI
Cespedes	167	600	.279	33	82
Upton	121	600	.202	26	68
Heyward	160	600	.267	7	35
Zobrist	112	600	.187	14	42
Murphy	178	600	.297	41	81
Davis	157	600	.261	16	67
Desmond	105	600	.175	17	23
Gordon	135	600	.225	21	65
Span	158	600	.263	4	36

I never thought I’d see Murphy’s numbers pop out like this, but it shows how well he fares vs good pitching. Of course, that is nowhere near his regular career home run numbers. So perhaps it’s just an outlier.

Cespedes, on the other hand, came in at .279 – 33 – 82 even though all we’ve been hearing is that he cannot hit good pitching. Obviously, these numbers prove otherwise. In fact, these numbers show that just about half of these guys can’t hit good pitching consistently (Desmond, Zobrist, Gordon & Upton hit .225 or worse). Power wise, Cespedes is ahead of every free agent OF on this list, and well ahead of prodigious home run hitter Chris Davis.

Denard Span, who is reportedly a Met target, had a woeful showing so how is he going to help replace Cespedes? You want Zobrist over Murphy? I hope you see the difference in consistency vs good pitching.

But of course, this is a very small sample, and does not mean anything. But, can we stop saying that Cespedes can’t hit good pitching? Can we please stop talking like Zobrist is the answer? Judging either of these guys based on 150 AB or so makes a lot more sense than judging them based on playoff numbers. But, just in case people are wondering, career numbers for each player in the playoffs:

Postseason Career:
	H	AB	BA	HR	RBI
Cespedes	26	94	.277	3	14
Upton	11	48	.229	2	4
Heyward	11	53	.208	2	6
Zobrist	34	132	.258	4	9
Murphy	19	58	.328	7	11
Davis	5	24	.208	0	2
Desmond	10	37	.270	0	0
Gordon	24	108	.222	3	17
Span	12	47	.255	0	1

And if you extrapolate their postseason performance over 600 ABs:

Numbers over 600 ABs:
	H	AB	BA	HR	RBI
Cespedes	166	600	.277	19	89
Upton	138	600	.229	25	50
Heyward	125	600	.208	23	68
Zobrist	155	600	.258	18	41
Murphy	197	600	.328	72	114
Davis	125	600	.208	0	50
Desmond	162	600	.270	0	0
Gordon	133	600	.222	17	94
Span	153	600	.255	0	13

To be fair, Cespedes’ power numbers are cut in a 1/3 off his career, but in terms of batting average, he is right on par with his career numbers. Ben Zobrist can’t shine Murphy’s shoes over 600 playoff AB. Alex Gordon, Mr. “KC Royals approach” – he has a career .222 BA in the playoffs. Not exactly consistent.

And of course, the one guy who will likely get the biggest contract this offseason is Jason Heyward. Please review his numbers above, and think to yourself… Is this guy really getting a better deal than Cespedes? Please, he is not a great player. He is not in Cespedes’ class offensively.

OK, so this argument has major flaws. I get it, there are more overall stats and the old “eye test” to consider. I mean, the NL figured out Cespedes, he can’t possibly make adjustments because he is a head case. I know, I know. He is not worth $20 million a year. I get it. People are scared. Just please, don’t tell me he can’t hit good pitching. It’s just not true. In fact, statistically speaking, he is the second best free agent hitter available vs good pitching. Of course, Sir Murphy is No. 1.

Thanks for giving me a few minutes to vent.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by Peter S.. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily.

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