MMO Fan Shot: Taking Stock of the Mets, the Magic of Memorial Day

An MMO Fan Shot by Marc M. (Not4)

Memorial Day Weekend marks not only the unofficial beginning of summer but also is viewed as perhaps the first seminal day for determining whether a team’s hot start is for real.  It’s easy to dismiss hot starts as nothing more than anomalies borne from small sample sizes that will regress back to the mean once the sample size increases.

By the time Memorial Day rolls around, somewhere between 1/4 to 1/3 of the season is complete and, interestingly enough (to me anyway), over the past 20 years slightly more than 60% of the teams leading their division or wild card standings at Memorial Day have gone on to make the playoffs.  Of course, a lot can and will happen between now and the end of the season.  After all, there are still 4+ months left to play and plenty of teams that start off hot then fade into oblivion.  But, for now, with slightly more than 1/4 of the Mets season in the books, it’s not a bad time to take stock of where this team stands.

Looking beyond the statistical likelihood of the Mets making the playoffs at this bench mark date, it is also worthwhile to look at the good, the bad and the question marks – those that have been answered, those that have not and those that have been added.

Starting Pitching

Saturday’s start aside, Matt Harvey has been nothing short of a revelation, returning stronger and pitching very well sooner than could realistically be expected.   (We all hoped for it, but this truly exceeds expectations).  The no decisions suck for him, but his ability to pitch as a true Ace and still go relatively deep into games has been huge for this team. The rest of the starters have performed about as well as can be expected.

Jacob deGrom had a couple of hiccups, but that is not surprising for a second year player.  More importantly, he looks like the real deal just like last year and has done a nice job adjusting to the adjustments that the league has tried to make.  In fact, I’d say most of his issues have stemmed from some command issues early in the season where he was not spotting the ball quite as well in games he has been hit (which he seems to have fixed if his past 3 starts are any indication).

Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and Dillon Gee have all performed about as well as can be expected.  Colon will have an occasional bad game, but has been pitching great once again this year.  Gee was pitching well before being injured and seems to have responded well to being disrespected by the organization (pitching with a bit of a chip on his shoulder).  Niese had a nice start to the season and invariably will have stretches where he gets knocked around like his last two.  In years past, it was often an indication of a physical issue, but considering Niese’s high WHIP, he’s bound to have some games like these last two (many have been predicting a regression for him based upon his WHIP.  And the fact is that pitchers like Colon and Niese will have the occasional bad outing, which is fine if they can put up mostly solid outings and keep us in most games.

Noah Syndergaard has been better than expected in his three starts.  Looks like a combination of Wheeler and deGrom (not quite Wheeler’s nasty stuff and not quite deGrom’s command and pitching smarts – but has shown enough in his three starts to, which is pretty amazing for a 22 year old!)

Relief Pitching

Jeurys Familia has been a revelation as well.  He seamlessly slotted into the closer role once Jenry Mejia was suspended and while there inevitably will be blown saves and bad outings (let’s face it, all great relievers have off nights occasionally), he has exceeded reasonable expectations to date.  Jeremy Blevins was fantastic until he got hurt and should provide a nice boost to the BP when he returns.

The Torres boys (Carlos Torres and Alex Torres) have both been very reliable, even though they have also been forced to pitch in more high leverage situations than expected.  Hansel Robles, Erik Goeddel, Sean Gilmartin and Jack Leathersich have not pitched enough to know for sure what we have, though it’s possible that maybe two of them can contribute meaningfully this year.  Blevins’ return (whenever that may be) will be big.

Bobby Parnell and Vic Black remain potentially big additions, or simply teases who may not pitch (or at least effectively) this year.  Unless one or maybe both can return and contribute, my guess is that the FO will need to do something to add much needed depth to this Pen, whether it is a mid-season trade and/or more callups that stick.

Buddy Carlyle will also help when he returns.  Adding Mejia when he comes off the DL is very much needed at this time, as another back-end, high leverage pitcher (7^th and 8^th inning).  I know he cannot pitch in the playoffs, but if Collins continues to pitch Familia and the Torres boys as much as he has, he will likely burn them out (if not worse).

Position Players

As everyone knows, the biggest Achilles heel for this team has been its hitting and run production, particularly the past several weeks since David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud were injured.

• D’Arnaud was producing very nicely before hitting the DL (both offensively and defensively).  Wright was okay – some good and some bad; though it should be noted that both have barely played this year at all because of those early season injuries. d’Arnaud looks like he is on track to return next week, which is huge for this lineup.  Wright is a question mark for both this season and beyond.
• Lucas Duda has been pretty good, but until last Thursday, had not been hitting home runs or driving in runs like we need out of him.  Hopefully he can continue to do both, and particularly when it comes to hitting RHP.  We need him to be the beast that he was for much of last season.
• Granderson has been a decent leadoff batter who, despite a slow start hitting his first 7 games (1-18), has actually out-performed most expectations (.264/.338/.421/.759 in his last 39 games (157 PAs), while walking at a nice 16% clip overall (though that has come down to 10% in this last 39 game stretch) and making pitchers throw a lot of pitches.
• Lagares has gone from streak to streak – cold to hot to cold to lukewarm at best.  His overall offensive production is below par and needs to improve.
• Cuddyer has been a disappointment and is severely under-performing his contract, his recent and long term history and what the Mets need out of him.  He needs to turn his season around and soon!  He’s showing some life the last 4 games, but we need consistent production out of his bat (particularly with Wright being such a question mark).
• Murphy started the year horribly through is first 18 games, but has picked it up significantly offensively since then (over the last 28).  He just turned 30 and has been remarkably consistent the past few years, so it’s fair to assume similar production from him.  His defense at 2^nd seems to be worse than ever, though he has leveled out a little.  With Wright out for what looks like an extended run, I’d move him to 3B and bring up Reynolds to play 2B for now.
• Flores has really been a mixed bag, but big picture, he needs to produce more than he has and I believe he is capable of doing just that (and has been doing it over the past dozen games.  He seems to have settled down defensively, which is important.  He needs to continue to play defense the way he has the past dozen or so games (like he did last year) and hit like he has the past dozen games, which I think is not only possible, but that he is perhaps capable of more this year (albeit with more double and less HRs – 3 HR in 12 games equates to 40 for the season and that is just not realistic for him, but more doubles is certainly realistic and in line with his historical performance).

The Bench

Our bench production has been below par, thus far.  Kirk Nieuwenhuis really struggled before being DFA’d. – and he was supposed to be the biggest bat off the bench (along with John Mayberry, Jr., who has been struggling almost as bad and could be a DFA candidate at some point in the near future if he does not start hitting).  Ruben Tejada has been replacement level at best – mostly solid defense, horrible bat, nice BB%.  Eric Campbell, Anthony Recker and Johnny Monell have all been below par.  Too soon to tell with Darrell Ceciliani or Danny Muno.

Final Thoughts

Overall, even with all their faults, this team can and should continue to compete throughout this year.  The extent to which they compete and win will be dependent upon several things, including:

1. Getting Travis d’Arnaud back and performing.
2. Lucas Duda hitting more HRs and driving in more runs.
3. Michael Cuddyer improving dramatically offensively.
4. Curtis Granderson hitting like he has in the past five weeks.
5. Wilmer Flores hitting like he can and like he has the past dozen games.
6. Juan Lagares picking up his production at the plate.
7. Noah Syndergaard remaining in the rotation, as long as he is performing as he has so far with a little room for growing pains.
8. Bolstering the bullpen before our few effective pitchers’ arms fall off.
9. Middle infield defense stabilizes (which, as many suggest, will probably be contingent upon Murphy playing 3B while Wright is out, or perhaps eventually being traded).
10. Re-working the bench to have players who can contribute to wins and deliver when called upon.
11. Bringing up Steven Matz at some point in the next couple of months (probably in conjunction  with trading one or two of Gee, Niese and Colon – which can hopefully net us some BP help and some prospects and maybe a nice bench piece.

To be clear, not all of these will happen, nor do all have to happen for this team to compete and win.

Obviously, the more that do occur, the more success the team will experience.  For instance, if Cuddyer can really turn things around, this team could probably still succeed even with the moderate offensive contributions from Granderson, Flores and Lagares; conversely if Cuddyer continues to underperform, two of Granderson, Flores and Lagares will need to improve their production to offset Cuddyer’s under-performance.

Put simply, it is a sliding scale with many variables that can offset (or exacerbate or bolster) the other variables and the team’s overall result this year.

Now that we have passed the first litmus test date, taking stock of the Mets, we see a team that could win as few as 80ish games, or as many as the low-90s depending upon how things shake out from here forward.  The likeliest result is somewhere in the mid- to upper-80s – just about where many had them pegged at the beginning of the season.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Marc M. (Not4). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to us at [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.