An MMO Fan Shot by Sean
The last few weeks of Mets baseball have disappointed me in more ways than one. Our heralded veteran mashers, Cano and Ramos, can’t seem to get the ball off the ground. Our young stars, Conforto and Nimmo, have struggled to pull out of their slumps. And our starting pitchers, while showing some signs of improvement, have now fallen victim to the injury bug. This season is still young, and I haven’t lost hope, but this team needs to turn things around immediately.
Our pitching staff is clearly the weak link in this organization in terms of depth and performance right now. With Matz dealing with nerve issues and Vargas hitting the IL, the Mets’ staff is currently in no position to take on the Phillies as the season rolls into the summer months.
If the Mets aren’t going to spend the money to go “all in” this year, then perhaps it’s time the Mets start operating like a true Moneyball team: the Tampa Bay Rays. This week, SI put out a feature on the Rays’ innovative approach to win games on the cheap. Most notably, the article outlines how the team has utilized openers to limit the exposure of their starters to the best hitters in the opposing team’s lineups. It truly makes you wonder if the Mets would benefit from utilizing this approach.
The logic of the approach is statistically sound: put one of your best relievers, such as Seth Lugo, out to begin the game and face your opponent’s top hitters. In the second or third inning, your “starter,” or primary pitcher comes in and gets less exposure to the top hitters in the lineup, allowing them to go deeper into the game. To visualize this against the potent Braves lineup, it might look like this (green is hit or walk, red is out):
| Hitter | Pitcher 1st Time Through Lineup | Pitcher 2nd Time Through Lineup | Pitcher 3rd Time Through Lineup | Pitcher 4th Time Through Lineup |
| Albies | Lugo | Wheeler | Wheeler (5 IP) | J. Wilson |
| Donaldson | Lugo | Wheeler (3 IP) | Wheeler | J. Wilson |
| Freeman | Lugo | Wheeler | Wheeler | J. Wilson |
| Acuna Jr. | Lugo (1 IP) | Wheeler | Wheeler | J. Wilson (8 IP) |
| Markakis | Lugo | Wheeler | Wheeler | Diaz |
| Swanson | Lugo | Wheeler | Wheeler (6 IP) | Diaz |
| McCann | Lugo (2 IP) | Wheeler (4 IP) | Wheeler | Diaz (9 IP) |
| Inciarte | Wheeler | Wheeler | Wheeler | |
| Pitcher | Wheeler | Wheeler | Wheeler (7 IP) |
With this setup, Wheeler faces hitters 1-5 in the lineup only twice before getting pulled from the game. The only hitters that seem him three times are hitters eight and nine. Naturally, Freeman goes 3-for-4.
Comparatively, to pitch 5 innings as the starting pitcher, he would have to get into the top of the Braves lineup for a third time as he was nearing 100 pitches, risking a meltdown before handing it off to the bullpen.
I am the first to concede that this kind of planning seems ridiculous in a game so dominated by chance and variation. However, in the long-run, this kind of strategy could be beneficial to pitchers like Wheeler and Matz.
In Wheeler’s career, he has an ERA of 3.01, 3.58, and 4.79 in the first, second, and third time through the order, respectively.
In Matz’s career, he has an ERA of 4.17, 3.57, and 4.36 in the first, second, and third time through the order, respectively, helping Matz face the weakest hitters in his first time around before settling in.
Even deGrom could theoretically benefit from this (1.93, 2.60, 3.66 ERAs in that order each time), though I would worry about changing anything about what he does.
In 2018, the Rays had a higher winning percentage while using an opener (.582) than with a traditional starter (.542). While getting the pitching staff to buy into this concept mid-career would be a challenge beyond my paygrade, you have to wonder if the Mets would benefit from operating like their peer small-market clubs.
Change for the sake of change is dangerous, but the Mets are practically in free fall. This fresh approach to the game could help our weak pitching staff turn around its season and boost the Mets back into contention.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO community member and die-hard Mets fan Sean. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Send your article to [email protected] or use this Contact Form. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
