An MMO Fan Shot by Jason Levin
The late September series in Cincinnati where Lucas Duda went bananas and we clinched the NL East gave us the first glimpse at why 2016 should be even more fun and it wasn’t because of Duda’s heroics. That series was the first time that the Mets threw Jacob DeGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz onto the hill in consecutive games. We won all four and the quartet of flame-throwers dominated, to the tune of 34 strikeouts and 0 walks. Not a typo. 34 K – 0 BB. The quartet went on, of course, to lead us over the Dodgers and Cubs and take us to the ninth inning of Game 5 of the World Series.
Here are some numbers that will have you smiling through the winter. In 2015, those four young guns started 86 games. The Mets won 54 of those and lost 32, for a winning percentage of (.614). Here’s the breakdown of the Mets record (not the pitcher’s record) with those four starting.
- DeGrom: 19-10
- Harvey: 17-11
- Syndergaard: 13-10
- Matz: 5-1
So, let’s play around a little and project those four out to a full season in 2016. At 30 starts apiece, which means they’d miss or skip about 2 each in a five man rotation, that’s 120 games. I think we all believe each of the four should be even better next year, but let’s be somewhat conservative with these first projections anyway. Remember, this is projecting the Mets’ record in these games, not the pitchers’.
- DeGrom: 20-10
- Harvey: 20-10
- Syndergaard: 17-13
- Matz: 17-13
That projects out to 74-46 (.617)
That leaves starter #5, who would have been Jon Niese. Wait until you see the Mets record each season from 2010-2015 with Niese starting:14-16, 13-13, 15-15, 12-12, 15-15 and 14-15. Mind-boggling I know, but those are the real numbers.
So, with Niese shipped to Pittsburgh, those 30 starts figure to fall to the combination of “Big Sexy” Bartolo Colon and Zack “I’m picking up the phone and calling Alderson” Wheeler. Assuming 20 April-August starts for Colon and 10 for Wheeler from Aug through the end of the season, let’s project those two against the 15-15 Niese obviously would have given us.
Say Colon/Wheeler “go Niese” and give us his 15-15. That gets us to an 89-61 record with 12 games still unaccounted for. Smiling yet?
Go 9-3 with the fill-in starters (Verrett, Montero, Gilmartin, etc.) and we win 98 games. Division title, home-field advantage throughout.
Go 6-6 and we win 95. Ditto.
Fail miserably with the fill-ins, go 2-10 and we still win 91…..nice, huh?
Granted, all of that was projecting for good health, but also fairly conservative for the Fab Four, so let’s really have some fun with what will be the healthy competition within the rotation. They will be pushing and feeding off each other, like the young, talented, fired-up competitors they are, with post-season experience in tow, arbitration $ looming and no innings limits distractions save maybe for Matz. You have to think one of them, if not two is going to have a monster year, so let’s see what that might look like. Again, this is the Mets projected record in the games they start, not the pitcher.
DeGrom 23-7
Harvey 21-9…you could flip these top two, of course. Up to you.
Syndergaard 19-11…and he could easily be the 23-7 guy too, no?
Matz 17-13
That’s 80-40 (.667) and absolutely within the realm of possibility, especially with Cespedes back aboard to solidify the offense. For the purpose of comparison, the LA Dodgers’ record the past three years with their two studs was as follows: Kershaw (60-31) and Greinke (63-27).
What does a career year look like? The Dodgers went 23-4 (!) in 2014 with Kershaw and 22-8 this year with Greinke. The ’85 Mets were 28-7 when Dwight Gooden started and the ‘69 Mets were 26-9 when Tom Seaver was on the hill.
Back to our 2016 Mets. Add 15-15 for Colon/Wheeler to the 80 win high-end projection and we are at 95 wins with 12 games to go……6-6 from the fill-ins gets us to…….101 wins. Grinning ear-to-ear yet?!
Simply put, pitching wins, and it is a massive edge to run four ultra-talented starters out there series after series, and really adds up over a 162 game season. If you’re old enough to remember, that’s the main reason the Maddux/Smoltz/Glavine Braves dominated the NL East through the 90’s. Oh yeah, John Smoltz said repeatedly during the final few months of the season that this Met staff is more talented than his Braves.
Met history figures prominently here as well. The reason the Mets rolled through the mid to late 1980’s was because Gooden, Darling, Ojeda, Fernandez got the bulk of the starts. If you’re ancient like me you remember the late 60’s/early 70’s Mets trotting out Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, Gentry and Matlack to win one World Series and almost beat the dynastic A’s in another.
You ready?
Jason Levin was once the west coast editor of Baseball Digest and has written sports features for the Village Voice, LA Times Magazine, and numerous other publications. Raised in Manhattan in the late 1960’s, he fell in love with the Miracle Mets riding the 7 train out the Big Shea. He currently lives in LA and will be rooting on the Mets in every SoCal game they play. The Cespedes signing went a long way towards getting him over being at Citi Field for Game 5 of the 2015 World Series.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by Jason Levin. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
