MMO Fan Shot by Chris Cappella

It sometimes feels like a hot take to say Michael Conforto is good, which is ridiculous because of course Michael Conforto is good. His 12.1 fWAR since 2016 ranks him 17th among qualified outfielders, a figure that would have only increased if not a fluky shoulder injury in August 2017. While not the best defensive player, he has shown at least capable of playing all three outfield spots.

Now with two years of arbitration remaining, the clock is ticking on what the Mets plan to do with him.

Extend or trade?

The solution should be simple. Conforto is the best home-grown position player the Mets have produced sign David Wright. It’s a mantle that will be soon given up to Pete Alonso, but for now we can count on Conforto’s consistency (Lucas Duda, for what it’s worth, is probably second on this list).

Yes, Conforto is going to struggle against the lefty specialist. Yet he managed a .252/.366/.390 clip against lefty starters in 2019. And yes, he probably does strike out too much for a player with a swing as subjectively pretty as his (23.0% strikeout rate, 40th in the league). Yet his walk rate was at 13%, 16th best in baseball. Like all players, you take the good with the bad.

I think an argument could be made that Conforto is only going to get better. Nearly all of Conforto’s Statcast numbers – that is hard hit rate, barrels, exit velocity, etc. — from 2019 were an improvement from 2018, yet not quite back to where they were in 2017.

There’s room to improve off of his best statistical season because we’ve seen it. Based on lineup construction, he could also receive protection from Pete Alonso or, hopefully, an improved Robinson Cano. I’m not saying he’s going to turn into Mookie Betts in 2020. What I am saying is he’s going to far out-perform his 2020 projected price tag of $9.2 million. His age-28 season, 2021, will be his final year of arbitration.

Then what?

The Mets could have a Michael Conforto issue. This isn’t because Michael Conforto is bad, it’s because Michael Conforto might be too good. It’s about the team’s roster construction and payroll in 2020, 2021, 2022 and beyond.

Anybody who has watched Mets baseball can agree the Mets need to improve defensively – especially for a team that is supposed to be built on pitching. The problem is, there’s really no true path to becoming a better defensive team. Cano is not going to be a second baseman with range anymore. Wilson Ramos is a strong man but not a strong defender. Perhaps Amed Rosario can continue to improve defensively, but realistically, what does his ceiling look like?

Jeff McNeil was an above-average defender at third base, second base and right field, but can’t play all three at one time. To get JD Davis’ bat in the lineup means sacrificing defense. The same goes for Dominic Smith. Then there’s Jed Lowrie and Brandon Nimmo. Oh, and Cespedes?

GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters he would like to improve the team’s defense. With so many guys in place who are not even average, let alone above-average defenders, that leaves center field one of the only spots to improve.

Michael Conforto in center field is not an answer to improving the defense. It just isn’t. Baseball Reference had his Total Fielding Runs Above Average at -8 in 268 innings in center field last season. You can live with Michael Conforto (or Brandon Nimmo for that matter) if improving the defense is lip service only.

So, if the Mets are serious about improving as a defensive team and aren’t going to lock Conforto up through the prime of his career, they should trade him.

An above-average outfielder making below market value for two more seasons is the second-most valuable trade chip the team has right now. They could acquire a true center fielder or acquire prospects to replenish a farm system decimated from trades with Seattle and Toronto. Brandon Nimmo, a worse – yet cheaper – option can fill his role.

The problem is, it really shouldn’t come to this. The Mets have two – TWO – non-arbitration eligible players currently on the roster for the 2022 season. TWO! When critics point out the spending habits of ownership, the focus shouldn’t be completely on free agent spending.

Defenders of the Mets will point to the 2019 opening payroll and show it was eighth in baseball. True. It’s also a number inflated from the band-aid, short-term deals inked by players like Jed Lowrie, Jeurys Familia and Wilson Ramos (and Jason Vargas before that, and Todd Frazier before that, and… you get the point).

A true investment in the team isn’t signing a 31-year old catcher to a three-year deal. It’s building the core of the team. It’s not just extending Jacob deGrom, it’s extending Michael Conforto and Noah Syndergarrd and signing Anthony Rendon to an eight-year deal because he’s Anthony freaking Rendon, a future Hall of Famer looking for a team.

But Fred and Jeff Wilpon have refused to do that to this point. A player like Michael Conforto should be getting extended through the prime of his years right now. Not in 2022. Now. Instead, ownership will wait until 2022 and ink Conforto to a long-term deal that will extend past his prime for big money. The excuses will carry on.

The Mets constructed a roster with six legitimately viable outfield options yet still need a center fielder who can actually play center field. They’ve created a payroll inflated by short-term deals while still managing to only have two non-arbitration eligible players extended for the 2022 season. Now, they have one of the best outfielders in the National League entering his final two years of arbitration with an agent who is notoriously hard to handle.

The Mets have a Michael Conforto problem, but it will soon be a problem far larger than that.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Chris Cappella. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 26,000 Met fans who read this site daily.

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