“It’s Mets March Madness, Baby!!!”
An MMO Fan Shot by Spencer Barnes
In honor of the phenomenon that brings grown men to tears, turns underdogs into Cinderellas, and makes young children look smarter than ESPN analysts, I present to you March Madness—New York Mets edition. In the spirit of all things optimistic, let’s call it the Bracket of Hope. Basically, the top (“Elite”) eight reasons why Mets fans should be excited about this year’s edition of the team. (We will begin at the Elite Eight because, c’mon, even the Nats don’t have 64 reasons to be hopeful.)
The Elite 8
(1) MATT HARVEY’S HEALTH vs. (8) MINOR LEAGUE BATS
Like every good tournament, this one has a Cinderella. For as much attention as all of the Mets’ young pitchers get (which will be discussed later), the organization does have some underrated minor league hitters that could certainly make contributions come mid-to-late summer. Should injuries or performance force presumed starting shortstop Wilmer Flores out of the lineup for an extended period of time, Matt Reynolds is an option. Like Flores, shortstop is not Reynolds’ natural position, but the transition to it has been relatively smooth for him. Hitting a combined .343 over 478 at-bats between AA Binghamton and AAA Las Vegas, there is reason to believe he can be at least an average major league shortstop. And while, barring an injury the chances are slim, there are whispers of him making the MLB roster out of spring training.
Dilson Herrera is another name that Mets fans will be hearing a lot of later this season and for years to come. Herrera got his feet wet in the majors in 2014, and with 2015 likely being Daniel Murphy’s last year in New York, he is the second baseman of the future. Despite his 5’10”, 150lb. frame, his 3 homers in 66 MLB at bats last season and .323 minor league average in 2013 provide glimpses of his offensive ability.
Catcher Kevin Plawecki is another player to watch. While lacking real power, he has been a .300 hitter each of the past two seasons in the minors. The Mets may have to make a decision between Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud at some point (possibly as early as this year), and testing Plawecki at the major league level would provide some reassurance in deciding one way or the other.
Keeping all of this in mind, there will be no upset here. Harvey is the Kentucky Wildcats of this bracket, and he has a better chance of winning this matchup than the chances the world will ever see Jacob deGrom in barely more than a Speedo. When the Dark Knight made his first spring training appearance on March 6 (and his first “competitive” appearance since his injury in August 2013), the build-up to the game was described by some as a “playoff atmosphere.” I know I had a smile on my face and Prince Fielder-sized goose bumps on my arms when I saw him strike out the first batter he faced.
Bottom line: Harvey is the unquestioned ace of the staff, and though David Wright will always be the captain as long as he is a Met, Harvey has a certain swagger about him that cannot be matched. Harvey advances.
(2) HEALTHY DAVID WRIGHT vs. (7) WILMER FLORES EXCEEDING EXPECTATIONS
Next to Matt Harvey’s return, there is nothing more exciting about the 2015 New York Mets than a fully healthy David Wright. Being the no-excuses person he is, Wright is careful not to place blame on his shoulder for his, let’s just say, below average 2014 season. However, it was obvious that his injury definitely hindered his year. All reports regarding Wright have been positive, and barring any setbacks, there is no reason to think Wright can’t put up .290/ 20/ 80 numbers at minimum.
The only thing talked about more this offseason than this (white?) dress may have been the Mets’ shortstop situation. The consensus among the Mets fan base seems to be that anybody—Everett Cabrera, Stephen Drew, Ian Desmond, Troy Tulowitzki, Will Ferrell—would be a better shortstop than Wilmer Flores, regardless of what it cost to acquire them. I think I speak for the minority (and Aaron Rodgers) when I say, “R-E-L-A-X.” Yes, I realize Flo is not going to be the best defensive shortstop the Mets have ever had (although he has made a number of impressive, above-average-difficulty plays already this spring). But he should be at least serviceable, and should he hit like he has shown he can, he easily becomes one of the better players in the league at his position. Shortstop is not our strong suit, but it’s not a glaring weakness either. Wilmer should provide some hope for a possible playoff run this season.
Bottom line: Every avid college basketball fan knows the upset-potential of a 2-7 matchup. But in this case, David Wright survives and advances.
(3) STARTING PITCHING DEPTH vs. (6) THE BULLPEN
While each of these have taken recent hits to their overall potential dominance, they do both remain strengths for the Mets. Let’s begin with the starting pitching. The Mets are close to ten deep in terms of starters. Or at least they were until it was announced Monday that Zack Wheeler would have season-ending Tommy John surgery. This was supposed to be Wheeler’s year to shine, building off of his solid second half of 2014 (6-3, 3.04 post all-star break). Instead, we can only hope he will be ready by Opening Day 2016. So where does this leave the Mets? The hole left by Wheeler will be filled by one Dillon Gee, who seemed destined for the bullpen if all starters remained healthy. This move means that Rafael Montero should start the season as the long man in the pen, forcing one-fifth of what should be an extremely talented AAA rotation into the majors already. If and when another starter succumbs to injury, something we know is eminent (a team typically needs about 8-9 starters to get through a season), Wheeler’s injury ensures that either Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz (an under-the-radar lefty who Las Vegas manager Wally Backman believes is a better pitcher than the highly-touted Syndergaard) will get a long look. Future Mets starter Cory Mazzoni could make an impact in the bullpen at some point this year, and Matt Bowman is an underrated prospect who could be that eighth or ninth starter in August or September.
New York’s bullpen is this tournament’s version of a team like Notre Dame; if they get hot and make their threes, they have proven they can beat teams like Duke and North Carolina. Can they go cold, completely fall apart, and lose by 30 to Duke? Without a doubt. One of the main goals of the Mets front office this offseason was to sign an established left-handed reliever to join Josh Edgin as the only two lefties in the bullpen. They failed to accomplish this, and Edgin, like Wheeler, has been lost to Tommy John for all of 2015. So… Sean Gilmartin? Jack Leathersich? Scott Rice anyone? Getting left-handed hitters out late in games could be a major problem. But hey, at least Adam LaRoche is out of the division! Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia were dependable in 2014, but who knows if Bobby Parnell will be his old self right away when he returns from Tommy John himself?
Or…
The Mets make their metaphorical threes. Leathersich has walked 108 batters in 197.1 career innings in the minors, but has struck out 334 batters (15.2 K/ 9!) with a 3.42 ERA, illustrating just how unhittable he is if he can throw enough strikes. Dario Álvarez is another young lefty option to consider, and right-hander Vic Black proved to be more than adequate in late-inning roles last year. Black, Mejia, and Familia lock down innings six through eight, and Parnell comes back in May as strong as ever to shut teams down in the ninth. For as deep as the Mets are at starting pitcher, the bullpen is the wild card that will play an underappreciated role in the Mets’ playoff push.
Bottom line: If the pen can stay healthy enough and pitches as well as it can, it will be among the MLB’s best. The 6-seed pulls the upset.
(4) KEVIN LONG vs. (5) ADVANCEMENT OF YOUNG HITTERS
Juan Lagares. Travis d’Arnaud. Wilmer Flores. The Mets offense is going to have to rely on young bats like these to make strides and become reliable hitters in 2015. It is going to be frustrating losing games 1-0 or 2-1 as the Mets will do often. However, if Flores can be what he is expected to be from an offensive standpoint, that will be enough from the shortstop position. Which d’Arnaud will we get this year? He was batting .180 before getting sent down to AAA Las Vegas on June 8. After getting called back up sixteen days later, it was a new d’Arnaud. His 10 homeruns and .272 average post-call up are proof that he has the ability to be an above-average catcher offensively. Center fielder Juan Lagares is the favorite to hit leadoff, which puts more emphasis on him growing as a hitter. If he is to be the leadoff man, the Mets would be thrilled with an average near .300 and 20 to 30 stolen bases. This may be a lot to ask of a 26 year-old outfielder whose calling card is defense (he won a Gold Glove in 2014), but it’s players like Lagares that are going to have to progress for New York to contend.
And how are these hitters supposed to get the most out of themselves?
The answer: new (and former Yankee) hitting coach Kevin Long. No one is expecting the Mets to score 900 runs this year and win every game 6-1. However, with the addition of Long, expectations have been raised in regards to offense. He is already receiving rave reviews from players like prospect Brandon Nimmo all the way to—wouldn’t you know it—former Yankee Curtis Granderson. One would like to think that reuniting Long and Granderson can get Curtis back on track toward his 2012 self (43 homers, 106 RBI). Another lefty power hitter who should benefit from Long’s presence is Lucas Duda. The only complaint about Duda’s 2014 campaign is his lack of production vs. left-handed pitchers, but the Mets will be thrilled with Duda should he put up identical numbers to last year (.253/ 30/ 92), and Long needs to make sure there is no drop off.
Bottom line: The Mets have the potential to be a solid team offensively this season due in large part to their young hitters. But the driving force behind these young hitters? Kevin Long. The 4 beats the 5 in a close one.
The Final 4
Now you know all of the “teams” in the bracket and we have ourselves a Final Four. In honor of Virginia’s pack-line defense and possession-limiting offense used to run clock, I’ll try to give you a champion as quickly as possible. In the first semifinal…
(1) MATT HARVEY’S HEALTH vs. (4) KEVIN LONG
I think we all know the way this one is going to go. If the Mets do end up in the playoffs, Kevin Long will no doubt have played a huge part in getting there. However, Matt Harvey is the team’s lynchpin; as he goes, the Mets go. If he returns to 2013 form, New York will have a legitimate Cy Young candidate and an extremely strong chance to win every five days. Every Final Four team needs its role players. But it’s the star that can put a team on its back and carry them to the Promised Land. And more importantly, in this “bracket of hope,” which gets you more excited: a 48 year-old hitting coach whose impact will only be truly noticed in the long run, or Matt Harvey? That’s what I thought.
Bottom line: The favorite advances to the final. Can Harvey complete his Kentucky-esque run?
(2) HEALTHY DAVID WRIGHT vs. (6) THE BULLPEN
The bullpen comes into the semifinals as the loveable underdog after upsetting the starting pitchers, but even VCU and George Mason’s magical runs eventually came to an end. With all of the power arms the bullpen possess, late innings should be just as exciting to watch as the earlier ones completed by starters like Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. But let’s be real here; raise your hand if you cannot wait to see the true David Wright return to the field in 2015. There is no denying that Wright is on the wrong side of 30 and that his .302/ 33/ 104 days (2008) are behind him. At the same time, he is finally back to full health for the first time since early-to-mid 2014, and he should be able to be counted on as a leader off the field and one of the team’s best players on it. He is the only current Met that was a member of the 2006 Mets team that teased us with World Series hopes all the way until the bitter, Molina-and-Wainwright filled end, and a healthy Wright is a great reason to believe we can get there again.
Bottom line: For as important and fun-to-watch as this bullpen could be, it is no match for our captain. Wright vs. Harvey in the championship.
Championship Game
The Cinderellas were dangerous early. One even made a push into the Final Four. But when it comes down to it, it’s the big boys in the finals.
(1) HEALTHY MATT HARVEY vs. (2) HEALTHY DAVID WRIGHT
The classic Goliath vs. Goliath. If it were allowed, I would have seeded these two as 1Aand 1B. It should first be noted that the Mets were able to win 79 last season without Harvey throwing one pitch, and Wright being either injured or completely out of the lineup for the majority of the year. Anywhere near 30 starts from Harvey and 150 games from Wright are reason enough to think New York can make the jump to wild card contention and close to 90 wins. It’s not unreasonable to think they could each be Comeback Player of the Year candidates. Now, which return to prominence gives the Mets’ fan base more reason to be optimistic about the upcoming season? The winner is… Matthew Edward Harvey. He finally meets a formidable opponent this round, but his proven elite ability and superstar, “Dark Knight” persona put him over the top. (His 99 MPH fastball and newly rediscovered curveball don’t hurt either.) I fully expect to be able to tell which days Harvey pitches based on solely attendance numbers at Citi Field, and that’s something David Wright just can’t compete with. “Harvey Days” get Mets fans excited like nothing else can’t, and whether it’s Opening Day, the second game of the season, or the Mets’ home opener, the first regular season Harvey Day cannot come soon enough.
Bottom line: Congratulations, Matt. On a young team with so many points of hope, you are the greatest.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Spencer Barnes. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to us at [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
