An MMO Fan Shot by Chris Maloney
I can’t believe some of the negativity I’m seeing this offseason from some Mets fans who lack confidence in our team. This one sucks, that one sucks, ad nauseam. So I decided to share some analysis just to show how good the Mets offense can be in 2015.
The charts below were created using most players’ career averages. Here’s a brief explanation.
1. I used career averages for batting splits for each player.
2. I adjusted to show as 162 games or 650 plate appearances.
3. I copied results for players vs RHP and LHP (Career splits based 650 PA)
4. I adjusted results using a 70/30 split, 70% of totals below weighted for RHP and 30% weighted for LHP.
The following example shows Murphy’s career averages vs both lefties and righties based on a total of 650 PA, 455 vs RHP and 195 vs LHP. So in his Career Average year his slash line would be .274/.306/.374/.681 vs LHP and .295/.342/.435/.777 vs RHP.
NY METS 2015 LINEUP VS RHP
I repeated the process above for each position player for the 2015 Mets 25 man roster. The below shows IMO the best possible lineup for the Mets against RHP. The batting order can be tweaked but this is how it should shake out. The average slash line as a team reads .271/.331/.442/.774. These are based on all players having an average year not a career year vs RHP.
BENCH VS RHP
The bench’s numbers are how they would perform given an equal number of AB vs RHP. Granted MDD is an incomplete for lack of AB, but I included him anyway for his 2014 numbers projected over 455 PA.
NY METS 2015 LINEUP VS LHP
Here is what the career average numbers look like against LHP. What, no Duda? What, no Flores? Look at the numbers. Tejada’s numbers against LHP are great .285/.368/.347/.715, Flores’ numbers are not very good vs LHP. So Tejada starts 30% of games and is a defensive replacement in late innings of close games. Bottom line for 2015 Mets .277/.340/.447/.787, is a killer lineup vs LHP.
BENCH VS LHP
The bench numbers are how they would perform given an equal number of AB vs LHP. Granted MDD and Flores are incomplete for lack of AB, but I included with 2014 numbers projected over 195 PA.
NY METS 2015 PLATOON LINEUP
Finally, the 2015 Platoon lineup uses aggregate career numbers for the six non platoon player’s vs both LHP and RHP. The Duda / Mayberry platoon I will get to that below. The Flores / Tejada is the best surprise for the nay-Sayers, .285/.336/.391/.727 which are great numbers for SS and with the rest of the 2015 offense you can sacrifice a little defense. Duda, same thing but maybe not as a straight platoon even though numbers strongly suggests it.
Platoon Duda?
The case to platoon Duda might be sacrilege to some because everybody loved what he accomplished in 2014. But as you can see below all the damage was done vs RHP. He leaves the Mets very vulnerable when he starts vs LHP. The Duda / Mayberry platoon career splits project a .265/.343/.509/.852 with 32 HR and 93 RBI. I realize these numbers are similar to what Duda put up in 2014 by himself in 596 PA.
Now if you were to combine Duda’s 2014 numbers vs RHP with Mayberry’s career numbers vs LHP you get the monster numbers below. Duda still starts over 70% of games and is a Huge Bat off the bench in late innings in games he doesn’t start. What other team can potentially get 39 HR and 110 RBI production from First Base.
Many are saying there are a lot of ifs and there are, but this outlook is based on players having an average year. Bottom line Team numbers of .274/.336/.445/.781 are awesome. Combine this with our pitching and the Mets should challenge the Nats for the NL East. I actually think we beat them head-to-head this year, the LaRoche numbers alone IMO won them 3-4 games last season and now he’s gone.
The numbers for the 2015 Mets reserves included above can be used to plug in if and when injuries occur and they look very good to hold down the fort if used correctly.
Let’s say for example Wright goes down with his shoulder. One choice would be to move Cuddyer to 3B and have a new RF platoon, choosing one of the below. If you go with MDD you now have a speedier lead-off hitter with much improved contact in second half of 2014, which is not included in his stats below. In any case these are not bad options if Wright is injured. So In the event of injuries we have the depth to Platoon are way forward.
So look at the numbers and you might change your mind about the team we have going into the 2015 season. Even if all the players have an average year this season, expect the team to be making some noise. Be positive and Lets Go Mets!
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This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Chris Maloney. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 25,000 Met fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to us at [email protected]. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.
