MMO Crossfire: Snell or Yamamoto?

There’s a saying in baseball: you can never have too much pitching. For the Mets, that’s proven true over the past few seasons with injuries galore taking a direct hit to their rotation especially. With Kodai Senga and José Quintana the only penciled in starters for 2024 right now, the Mets need of depth. However, what they really need is an ace.

Senga had as good a rookie season as one could have hoped for and is a lock right now as the number one starter. The Mets need a new one-two punch, a new Max Scherzer–Justin Verlander. They need a new Jacob deGrom. With a stacked list of pitchers entering free agency, the Mets and Steve Cohen will go out of their way to outbid the player they want.

They will go after Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Even with all the money in the world, the Mets can only sign one. The question is, which one should they sign?

Snell is coming off a career year and is a shoo-in to win the NL Cy Young Award. It would be the second of his career, the first coming with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. He pitched to a league-wide best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings of work. In his 32 games, he went 14-9, striking out 234, and allowed 115 hits, 47 runs, 15 home runs and 99 walks. He led the majors in least amount of walks given up, ERA+ at 182 and H/9 at 5.8.

Yamamoto meanwhile took the worldwide stage when he pitched with Team Japan and led them to victory in the World Baseball Classic. He’s spent his entire NPB career with the Orix Buffaloes, debuting in 2017. Since then, he’s had a career 70-29 with a whopping 1.82 ERA and 922 strikeouts. In six years he gave up only 36 home runs and is expected to be posted this offseason.

With these facts in mind, MMO challenged two of their writers to make a case for signing Snell and signing Yamamoto.

Allison Waxman

Has Snell had somewhat of an up-and-down career? Sure. He’s human, all baseball players are. We’ve seen the best breakdown in the biggest starts of their careers. What Snell brings to a team is consistency. Now, I know it seems like I’m doubling back — you just said he’s had an up-and-down career. But Snell has either had elite numbers like this year or in his 2018 Cy Young year – a ridiculous 1.89 ERA or he’s been above average.

The Mets aren’t asking for an ace, Senga can become that guy. They need reliability and someone they know what to expect from. Snell’s contract might look similar to Yamamoto’s, but because innings have been a concern in addition to injury, there’s room for negotiation. With that extra money, the Mets can continue to round out their rotation and not spend all their money on one place, or person, in this case.

Another lefty would benefit the Mets, who have Quintana and a maybe-sometime reliable David Peterson. This kind of depth is exactly what they’ve been searching for, and Snell would be a weapon as a co-ace with Senga.

Andrew Tripaldi

Why stop with Kodai Senga?

The Mets successfully tapped the Japanese free agent market last offseason with Senga, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, quite frankly, in terms of track record, is better than Senga was one year ago at this time. He is worth pursuing, even more so than free agent pitcher Blake Snell.

Each of the last two seasons, Yamamoto has won the Sawamura Award (the NPB version of the Cy Young Award) and the NPB pitching Triple Crown (leading the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts).

Yamamoto is only 25-years old. Snell is five years older and has had some durability issues – he has averaged only 145 innings over the last three seasons as opposed to Yamamoto’s average of 183 1/3 during the same time period. 

During the last three seasons, Snell’s ERA has been 4.20, 3.38, and 2.25. Conversely, Yamamoto’s has been 1.39, 1.68, and 1.16.

See the pattern? It’s not that Snell isn’t good and wouldn’t help the Mets; the argument is that Yamamoto is a generational talent that should be pursued full-steam ahead!

Such a pursuit is not without risks. Reportedly, there will be a free agent feeding frenzy, piranha style, amongst several major league teams, including the Mets and Yankees. And since Yamamoto is only 25, he may want a 10-year contract which, for pitchers, is a bit outlandish.

But it’s Steve Cohen’s money, not mine and not yours. Based on his youthful age, historical track record, and the amount of interest he has gauged throughout the sport, Yamamoto is a worthwhile pursuit.