MMO Crossfire: Edwin Díaz’s Contract

The dust had hardly settled on the Houston Astros winning the 2022 World Series before the New York Mets made the first major move of the offseason, signing elite closer Edwin Diaz to a record five-year, $102 million contract last Sunday.

It was an Earth-shattering move that sent seismic waves throughout the baseball world, while proving quickly that owner Steve Cohen and the Mets mean business this winter. Diaz was always believed to be a top priority heading into the offseason and the front office wasted no time in locking up arguably one of the most important players on the roster.

Diaz will be paid $20.4 million a year, surpassing the $18 million that Liam Hendriks currently makes with the Chicago White Sox. It is the largest and richest ever contract for a reliever in baseball and it shows the Mets are all in when it comes to competing for a championship in 2023 and beyond.

There is no doubt that Diaz’s new deal is historical in every single aspect but there are some, like The Athletic’s Keith Law, that wonder if the Mets will live to regret giving their superstar closer a gigantic payday. So, with that in mind, MMO challenged two of their writers to argue for and against Diaz’s new record-setting contract.

Andrew Steele-Davis: Yes To Diaz’s Contract

Greatness comes with a price and the Mets knew if they were to retain the services of the best closer in baseball right now, then they would have to come up with the big bucks in order to do so. After what was a stellar 2022 season, Diaz was always going to demand a monster contract and he has earned every penny.

Like a quarterback in football, a point guard in basketball or a goaltender in hockey, the reliever carries a certain amount of prestige and importance in baseball, and Diaz established himself as the best of the best thanks to a dominant 2022. He pitched to a stellar 1.31 ERA with 118 strikeouts and 32 saves in 62 innings pitched, to go along with a 0.83 WHIP.

Diaz’s underlying metrics were also incredibly impressive. Per Baseball Savant, the righty ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA, strikeout rate, xSLG, xERA/xwOBA and whiff rate last year. He was also in the 99th percentile in fastball velocity, the 97th percentile in chase rate, the 96th percentile in average exit velocity and the 93rd percentage in barrel percentage.

What was perhaps most impressive about Diaz’s remarkable year was the way he perfected his biggest weapon – the slider. What was already a filthy pitch morphed into an unstoppable force as the veteran leaned on the pitch 58.1% of the time in 2022. It had a whiff rate of 54.7% and a strikeout rate of 54.3% – both marks ranked second in the majors – and batters could only hit .114/.134/.154 against the pitch.

It wasn’t just last year where Diaz excelled though. While he pitched at the very peak of his powers in 2022, the elite shutdown arm has delivered the goods for the Mets over a sustained period of time now. In 150.1 innings over the last three seasons, Diaz boasts a 2.27 ERA, a 1.78 FIP and 0.99 WHIP, while striking out 257 batters. The fact that the two-time All-Star has got the job done to a high level over a large sample size should be factored into the discussion about whether his new deal was good business.

Of course, everything in life isn’t without risk and that’s especially the case in professional sports. Franchises make huge investments in players without ever really knowing what could happen tomorrow, and the history of relievers being given monster contracts is not good. However, history is there to be rewritten and Diaz is a special, special talent. He’s going to put in the work to keep honing his craft and keep getting better, and elite shutdown guys should be paid the big bucks given their importance.

After all, Diaz is going to be fundamental in any run the Mets make at winning the World Series and, at 28-years-old, he’s still got plenty of his peak years in the tank. Given the trajectory the righty is on, this deal could actually end up looking like a bargain by the time it is over and the front office had to lock up one of their most clutch performers. Greatness comes with a price and the Mets won’t come to regret giving this contract to Diaz if they end up getting one World Series from it.

Jack Markowski – No To Diaz’s Contract

I hate to be a downer here, but there are some concerns to be raised about Edwin Díaz’s contract. The main point in this regard, which has merit, is the track record of long-term and big-money reliever contracts not aging particularly well. Wade Davis is one recent example, who signed a three year, $52 million dollar deal with the Colorado Rockies before the 2018 season and went on to produce only a 0.2 fWAR and a 6.49 ERA over that span.

Another is Will Smith, who inked a three-year, $40 million dollar deal before the 2020 season with the Atlanta Braves and put up -0.3 fWAR during that stretch. Building off of that, it’s worth wondering if dedicating a significant amount of money to a closer is advantageous just based on usage and overall value.

Díaz is the best closer in the game, but he is only used in just over a third of the team’s games, meaning that his overall impact isn’t overly substantial on a game-to-game basis. Re-signing Díaz is a move the Mets had to make, and it always made the most sense for both parties to reunite this offseason. Díaz’s contract has a chance to age much better than similar ones from the past, but there are multiple reasons to be a bit weary about how it all ends up playing out.