There have been a number of encouraging signs from the New York Mets through their first 11 games of the 2019 regular season, but one of the biggest has been the performance of the offense. With new hitting coach Chili Davis at the helm, the Mets are currently among baseball’s top teams with regard to cumulative wRC+.
And it’s not just the fact that the offense has been scoring runs and performing at an above-average rate when looking at advanced metrics — it’s the way in which they’ve gotten to this point thus far.
In recent years (and mostly during the Sandy Alderson era), New York put an emphasis on getting on base and hitting home runs. This year’s approach has been a hard-right turn and has been paying early dividends. If you’ve watched at least a couple Mets games this season, it’s easy to notice how often they’ve been hitting line drives up the middle and to the opposite field.
New York’s 24.2% line-drive rate is among the best in baseball, while they lead the league in opposite-field rate (33.5%) and are last in pull rate (35.3%). Among qualified hitters, most Mets players are at least generally following this pattern.
Except for — yes, it’s not a surprise after peeking at the headline — outfielder Michael Conforto.
Opposite of the Usual
Throughout his short major-league career, Conforto has typically used center and left field with regularity. Since debuting with the Mets in 2015, here’s a look at the direction of his batted balls on a yearly basis:
| Year | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 45.3% | 35.0% | 19.7% |
| 2016 | 42.7% | 32.6% | 24.8% |
| 2017 | 32.4% | 39.7% | 27.9% |
| 2018 | 43.0% | 31.7% | 25.3% |
| 2019 | 56.7% | 26.7% | 16.7% |
This isn’t necessarily a fair comparison because of how small 2019’s sample size, but given how noticeable the Mets’ approach at the plate has been from a team perspective, this is certainly interesting to note.
Conforto’s numbers don’t just jump off the page with New York — they jump off the page when looking at the league as a whole, too. That current pull rate of his is among the 20 highest in baseball with regard to qualified hitters, while his opposite-field rate is among the 40 lowest (in a pool of 185 hitters overall).
Rest of the Batted-Ball Profile
Conforto is the proud owner of a .372/.460/.674 line with three home runs, eight RBI, and 12 runs scored through 50 plate appearances, which is good for a 193 wRC+.
This current trend of pulling the ball with more frequency has been accompanied by some other stats that are sure to stabilize in the near future. The 26-year-old is currently sporting a .481 BABIP off the strength of a 33.3% line-drive rate and 40.0% hard-hit rate.
That line-drive rate will be coming down soon enough (his single-season career high came in 2017, when it was 24.4%), but his hard-hit rate will probably stay around 40.0%. Conforto has been on both sides of this number throughout most of his career, with his lowest single-season hard-hit rate coming last season (35.8%).
Of course, that’s partially due to his slow first half. Prior to the All-Star break, that number was down at 33.5% before watching it climb up to 38.4% following the midsummer classic.
If It Ain’t Broke, Don’t Fix It
Clearly, whatever he’s doing is working so far. This is one of those instances where you don’t question what’s happening and just ride it out as long as possible.
Right before players began reporting for spring training in February, I talked about how this was a pivotal year in Conforto’s development, and for a number of reasons. He certainly seems up for the challenge both on the field and in the clubhouse as one of the more senior members when it comes to time with the organization at the big-league level.
As long as he continues this current course, Conforto is in a great position to put together that true breakout season from start to finish. And it’ll be fascinating to see if he keeps making it happen doing the opposite of what a number of Mets hitters are doing, or if his numbers will eventually come back down to career norms.
