When the San Diego Padres acquired outfielder Trent Grisham — as well as right-hander Zach Davies — from the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday afternoon, it may have signified the end of center fielder Manuel Margot‘s tenure with the Friars.
If that is the case, New York Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen should be reaching out to Padres’ GM A.J. Preller to talk turkey regarding the 25-year-old Dominican native.
With the addition of Grisham, who can play all three outfield positions capably, San Diego now has eight outfielders on their 40-man roster. Something’s gotta give, there.
Though, if Margot is available, Preller may need to be truly enticed in order to move him and his projected $2.1 million 2020 salary (via MLBTR). This is his first year of arbitration eligibility and he’ll be a free agent for the first time in 2022. Concerningly, that’s worth something in today’s game.
The questions regarding Margot’s offense are more than justified, but his defense is arguably worth the risk. And he’d certainly cost less in return value than Pittsburgh’s Starling Marte, a reported trade target of the Mets. What it might take to land him is debatable, though, it’s certainly worth investigating.
Margot’s offense doesn’t jump off the page by any means (.234/.304/.387, 12 homers, 19 doubles, three triples, 37 RBIs over 151 games in 2019; 441 plate appearances), but, wow, can he field his position.
His +6 defensive runs saved and 7.5 ultimate zone rating per 150 games (FanGraphs) ranked fifth and fourth, respectively, among qualified MLB center fielders last season, and Margot’s 11 outs above average (Baseball Savant) was good for seventh among all qualified major league outfielders.
The Mets’ (presumably) current outfield alignment of Brandon Nimmo in the middle, Michael Conforto in right, and a combination of Jeff McNeil and J.D. Davis in left is serviceable. But for a team who ranked dead last in the NL last season in defensive runs saved (-93), a defensive-minded upgrade is probably wise.
After a promising 2017 at the plate (.263/.313/.409, 90 wRC+ in 126 games; 529 PA), Margot’s production levels dipped considerably over the next two years (.245/.292/.384, 81 wRC+ in 2018; .234/.304/.387, 82 wRC+ in 2019).
Under the tutelage of Mets skipper Carlos Beltran and hitting coach Chili Davis, who did a terrific job getting the most out of a young-ish roster last season (104 team wRC+ ranked second in the NL), Manuel Margot could potentially find the next gear that eluded him with the Padres.
Analytically, things haven’t been pretty for Margot. His hard-hit rate has been extremely volatile, jumping from 25.4 percent in 2017 to 39.3 percent in 2018, then back down to 33.5 percent last season. His line-drive rate took a substantial hit last season, (19.9 percent in 2018; 16.4 percent last year), and his expected slugging percentage (xSLG) ranked in the fifth percentile league-wide.
Though, as Al Melchior of The Athletic noted for FanGraphs earlier in November, Margot did manage to clean up his plate discipline a bit this past season, notching a 25% O-Swing rate after putting up a 29 percent mark in 2018.
One area where Margot has found consistent success is hitting left-handed pitching. Over 442 career plate appearances, he’s got a 106 wRC+ (.278/.338/.437 slash line) versus southpaws as compared to a 75 wRC+ (.236/.286/.377) through 1,084 plate appearances against righties.
Last season, Margot hit .330/.420/.466 (139 wRC+) over 120 plate appearances versus lefties and just .200/.260/.359 (61 wRC+) against righties (321 PA). Sounds like a perfect platoon-complement up the middle, no? It’s certainly a bit puzzling as to how San Diego didn’t see things that way.
Though, as noted above, Preller’s analytically-rooted front office may have had their attention drawn elsewhere.
But, in the Mets’ case, when a guy with obvious offensive flaws who ranks in the 93rd, 93rd, and 95th percentiles in outs above average (11), sprint speed (29 feet per second), and outfielder jump (1.6 feet above average), respectively, becomes available, kicking the tires is an absolute necessity.
And I’ll stop you before you say it. Yes, we all waited a very long time for Juan Lagares‘ bat to catch up to his glove, to no avail. And that’s a fair point that I really have no rebuttal for.
Though, when presented with Option A, overpaying in MLB ready assets and prospects for Marte or, Option B, making a low-risk deal with San Diego work to take a flyer on Margot, I go with Margot.
