Joel Sherman of the NY Post asked seven AL and NL team executives who they believed were best positioned to challenge the Nationals for top spot in the NL East between the Mets and the Marlins.
AL Assistant GM: “I like the Marlins better at this point. I think their rotations are similar, especially if Haren shows up, but I like the Marlins’ bullpen a little bit better.
However, I really like the Marlins’ lineup better with a good combination of speed and power along with youth. The Marlins’ defense is better up the middle as well as in the outfield. There is more overall balance in Miami than in New York and the Marlins are far better defensively in my eyes.”
AL Scouting Director: “I gotta go with the Marlins. They have the better single superstar [Stanton] and a deeper rotation after the injured guy [Fernandez].”
NL Scout: “I’ll take the Marlins. They were one of the most athletic teams I saw all of last season — the Royals are the other that comes to mind — and with the offensive additions they have made, they look like the much better bet to score runs than the Mets. They have plenty of speed and Stanton gives them the dominant force that will make the other players better. I like the Latos addition. It gives them a good veteran to go with their young arms. One thing I like about their staff is that it’s loaded with guys who can strike people out and I think [closer Steve] Cishek is underrated in the closer role.
“It seems like the Mets will be better, but unless they get major contributions from their young pitchers and/or go out and get another big bat, I don’t think they are in Miami’s class.”
NL Assistant GM: “I think the Marlins are clearly better — more pitching and a much more dynamic offense. I think the Marlins are a really well-rounded team.”
NL VP of Baseball Ops: “I actually think the Mets are in better position. I think their young pitching is a little better. I am actually surprised at the level of optimism around the Marlins. They had a nice improvement in 2014, but they still have many questions on their roster.”
AL GM: “It’s close, but I think I’d take the Mets. I like their rotation better than Miami. Fernandez is significantly behind Harvey in his rehab. That’s a huge component. [Jacob] deGrom emerging was pretty significant for the Mets.”
AL Assistant GM: “We have been talking about it all offseason. I still like the Mets’ pitching better on the whole, but the Marlins have made some nice upgrades. I would probably still take the Mets.”
Summary
4 – Four of the MLB Execs strongly preferred the Marlins for reasons that include the top overall player, better starting pitching, a stronger bullpen, much better defense, more power and speed, and an overall well balanced team to challenge the Nationals.
2 – Two execs say it’s very close but chose the Mets because they like their starting rotation a little better.
1 – One exec strongly prefers the Mets because they have the better pitching, and also believes the Marlins still have unanswered questions on their roster.
The Mets won 11 of 19 contests last season against the Marlins, outscoring them by 30 runs overall, 91-61. I mention that because it should be a close battle between these two teams as they try and challenge the nationals in 2015. In a season that could be decided by 2-3 games in the standings, it’s important to have the edge in head-to-head battle.
Still, these are not the same teams that battled last season… much has changed. Here’s how I break it down:
A full season of Jacob deGrom plus 24 starts from Matt Harvey is a better upgrade for the Mets starting rotation than Mat Latos and 18 starts from Jose Fernandez, in my opinion.
While I won’t dispute that the Marlins have the superior bullpen, it’s mostly because they have a proven elite closer in Steve Cishek, and solid veteran relievers in A.J. Ramos, and Mike Dunn who are all high strikeout guys. Unless Terry Collins really mismanages the Mets bullpen and each reliever’s roles, I think the Mets can pull to a draw here.
I won’t bother arguing who’s better on defense, obviously the Marlins have a decisive edge with the leather even though the Mets have gold glover Juan Lagares.
That brings us to offense which is where this battle ultimately gets decided. The Mets have to get significant improvement from Wright, Granderson, d’Arnaud and Flores if they are to keep up with Giancarlo Stanton (160 OPS+), Christian Yelich (116 OPS+), Marcell Ozuna (115 OPS+), Michael Morse (130 OPS+), and Martin Prado (104 OPS+).
That we retained Daniel Murphy is significant offensively for the Mets as is the emergence of Lucas Duda. Was adding Michael Cuddyer enough to improve the starting eight? Or is the scout that says we’re still a big bat away right? Or will the decision to bring back Terry Collins, ultimately be the deciding factor in 2015?
I look forward to reading your responses.
