The New York Mets are entering an offseason that they will likely need at least three established arms. At the moment, they need one starter and two relievers.

However, Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters after Carlos Beltrán‘s press conference on Monday that the team is considering Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman as rotation options for the 2020 season. In the case of Seth Lugo, this would be a mistake in my opinion.

It’s not that I don’t believe in Lugo’s ability to succeed as a starter. I absolutely think he can be successful as evidenced by his 4.06 ERA and 1.307 WHIP over 31 career starts. That would, at the very least, make him a viable back-end starter.

With that being said, Lugo was arguably the only reliable reliever for the duration of the season in 2019 as he had a 2.70 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, and 2.70 FIP over 61 appearances (80 innings). He also averaged 11.7 K/9 as compared to 1.8 BB/9.

That type of dominance will be hard for the Mets to come by on the open market and by moving Lugo to the rotation, the team would need to sign three relievers to fill out their bullpen.

By removing their most dominant one, the team would be left with Justin Wilson, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, and Robert Gsellman.

While the team hoped their long-term solution in the closer role would be Diaz, the right-hander was abysmal in 2019. At the very least, that puts their theory into question going forward.

If he was coming off a season even close to the one he had in 2018 and Familia lived up to the expectations he had when the team signed him last offseason, moving Lugo to the rotation would’ve been a bearable pill to swallow.

But, for a Mets bullpen that ranked 25th in all of baseball in ERA (4.95) as noted by ESPN, losing Lugo in his current capacity could be a catastrophic loss.

The other aspect to consider is that you want the games started by the likes of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, and Steven Matz to be “in the bag” when they leave a game with a lead.

By removing your best reliever and a multi-inning type like Lugo, that decreases the likelihood of the team securing a win for its starter, a pain that deGrom already knows too well with Lugo currently in the pen.

While the Mets could hope for resurgences from Diaz and Familia, they can’t rely on that right now which is why keeping Lugo in the bullpen might be a necessity even though he has intimated a desire to return to the rotation at some point.