The Mets once again missed out on their top starting pitching target on Friday night.
Jeff Passan of ESPN.com announced that Lucas Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal with the Red Sox. Giolito is now the second top free agent target the Mets have failed to sign after Steve Cohen lost the Yoshinobu Yamamoto race to the Dodgers.
Sep 26, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Lucas Giolito (27) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
Giolito marks another missed opportunity for the Mets. The righty has pitched at least 161 2/3 innings every season since 2018 and recently received Cy Young votes from 2019-2021. Plus, Giolito recorded a 3.79 ERA with the White Sox in 2023 before his abysmal second half where he pitched to a 6.97 ERA.
Gioltio wasn’t the perfect fit. But he would have given innings to the Mets rotation in need of bulk. As it’s configured now, Kodai Senga, José Quintana, Luis Severino, and Tylor Megill are cemented into the Mets rotation, with several options available for the fifth spot.
It’s uncompetitive. Plain and simple. And now that the Mets have missed out on Giolito, who is on the right side of 30 and was recently successful in Chicago, the remaining names are either unattractive or not likely to sign in Flushing.
The unlikelies are Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Both pitchers are coming off career years past age 30 and will receive expensive, long-term contracts. David Stearns has already alluded to avoiding these names and has instead decided to focus on the short-term market.
The unattractive names are Hyun Jin Ryu, Frankie Montas, and Sean Manaea. Like Giolito, all of these guys come with high to medium risk. Ryu and Montas haven’t been healthy the past two seasons, and Manaea only pitched 117 2/3 innings in 2023. However, unlike Giolito, none of the three are high rewards if the Mets can fix them, leaving a signing of any of the three questionable.
Yet, despite being unattractive, the trio above are among the best remaining free-agent starters on the market. After them is a long list of veterans such as Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber, Chase Anderson, and others. There are also old friends in Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman on the market, but they won’t return for obvious reasons.
The remaining options aren’t great. But if the Mets want to compete with the likes of the Braves and the Phillies in the National League East next season, they need another starter. The only issue is they’re uninterested in Snell and Montgomery and another No. 4 starter won’t move the needle.
The Mets could shock the industry and trade for Corbin Burnes, but that is entirely fantasy as the two parties aren’t connected. Plus, Burnes recently spoke on the Foul Territory Podcast and suggested he would test the free agent market after 2024. Hemorrhaging prospects for one year of Burnes would go against how Cohen has run the organization since acquiring it.
