Against all odds, the Mets are in contention. As things currently stand, the Mets are one back of San Fransisco and two back of Milwaukee in the loss column in terms of teams to jump. They’re four back of Philly, Washington, and Chicago, all of whom are in a virtual tie for the first wild card spot (technically the Cubs and Cardinals are tied for the NL Central lead too).
Believe it or not, the math actually gives the Mets with a fighting chance. Of the teams in front of them, Milwaukee, Philly, and San Fransisco all have a worse run differential than the Mets. The Giants have a really solid bullpen but their rotation is not great on paper and this is virtually the same team that was awful in 2017 and 2018. A healthy Madison Bumgarner can only help so much. There is a reason they decided to trade off some pieces at the deadline as opposed to buy.
The Phillies starters have a 5.03 FIP and a 4.53 ERA. Their bullpen has a 4.79 ERA and 5.10 FIP and they are currently in the process of trying to see what all can stick there. The Brewers bullpen is great which helps that run differential but their rotation is not a dearth of talent.
Now we look to the Mets. Their rotation is probably the best or at the very least, one of the most talented ones in baseball. When guys like Zack Wheeler are your number four starter, it is safe to say you are in good shape.
The big reason why I really like the Mets rotation is they seriously underperformed their talent and peripherals in the first half. Noah Syndergaard had a 4.68 ERA in the first half. This is the same guy who throws 100 MPH and was dominant as recently as September of 2018. Now he has a 1.91 ERA in the second half and a 1.53 FIP along with a great 31.3 K% and a 6.1 BB%. That is definitely more like it.
Meanwhile, Wheeler has struck out nearly 10 guys per nine innings yet had a similar ERA to Noah. Yesterday, we saw what Wheeler is capable of. Not to mention, Wheeler has posted a 3.51 FIP this season and his strikeout percentage is up from last year while his walks are down. These two guys are both in the top-3 in terms of velocity in the National League. The guy in between them is Jacob deGrom.
Variable change is the Mets friend right now. Both guys underperformed in the first half so there is a reasonable belief that they will both be great in the second half. They have the talent and they clearly have not lost anything in terms of their stuff.
They added Marcus Stroman and essentially replaced Jason Vargas. Neither strike guys out but one does not give up homers and does not walk the ball park. The odds of Vargas being good for the rest of the season seems very slim. In this era of the juiced ball, Stroman’s unusually low home run rate is very rare and he will be a fine addition to the Mets. I was a little down on the trade initially but it has grown on me.
I think we all know what Jacob deGrom is and what he will be. He is the best pitcher in baseball. Any time he does not go out and pitch seven innings and give up one run or less, it is a big surprise. His strikeout rates are going up like crazy. He just finished July by striking out nearly 36% of the hitters he faced. Remember, he had a meh (by his standards) start to the season, but has since turned into 2018 deGrom. Since the month of June, deGrom has a 1.97 ERA, a 2.15 FIP, and a 34% strikeout rate. I’d say he is pretty good.
Let’s face it, the Mets rotation when stacked up against anyone, gives them a chance to win. They have a reasonably good chance of winning three out of every five just by their talented rotation. I did not even mention the guy fresh off a complete game shutout, Steven Matz. His numbers have been solid but now he is the Mets fifth starter. He does not need to pitch like an ace.
It is the rest of the team that will make or break this season. Specifically, the Brodie four. Between Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia, the Mets forked over a lot of money and assets. They have combined for a WAR of -0.5 this season. Now while variable change is less likely to effect these guys, they have to be better than what they have been, right? I mean one can hope.
At the very least, Familia and Diaz. Both are needed to fix that bullpen and provide some relief (no pun intended) to Seth Lugo‘s right arm. Their starters will probably put the game in a winnable situation most times or at the very least, they will leave the game in reach. They just cannot afford to let games keep slipping away. They could have very easily been tied for a Wild Card spot had the bullpen not imploded but now is not the time to lament. If they can just combine for an ERA of 3.50 the rest of the season as opposed to the 6.00 plus they are combining for right now, the Mets can actually pull this off.
Now I do have to play the devil’s advocate. There could be regression from guys like McNeil or Alonso or maybe even Stroman. But their regression will not be very steep and the odds are they will still be productive amidst their struggles. Alonso will likely not be able to sustain a .330 isolated power and if Jeff McNeil hits .330/.387/.492 (his career line) for the rest of his career, then start etching up his Hall-of-Fame plaque.
Also in the Devil’s advocate, the Nationals, Cardinals, and Cubs all have a lot of talent. The Cardinals offense with Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter has drastically underperformed. Both guys were MVP candidates as recently as one year ago so I’d bet on them going on some run at some point. The Cubs pitching has their flaws but Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo are trying their hardest to keep that team in first. The Nationals looked dead in the water last time they were at Citi Field but kudos to them for finding their groove. Meanwhile, I don’t think San Francisco will be contenders for much longer but Milwaukee was in Game 7 of the NLCS last year and the Phillies have some solid hitters on their team despite how bad their pitching looks.
Now all that said, I have this weird feeling the Mets will be drinking champagne in late-September. I have mentioned a lot about variable change but it’s just a gut feeling. Listen, the Mets pulled this off with James Loney, Jose Reyes, and Rene Rivera as regulars in the lineup during their 2016 run. The pitching staff was made up of Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, two guys who are better off in the bullpen. Even Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin started in September. This team has more talent than those guys. So you know what? You gotta believe!
