With spring training practically in the books, the Mets rotation has been set for the upcoming 2024 season.

On Thursday, Carlos Mendoza spoke to the media, announcing Tylor Megill won the final spot in the rotation, joining José Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Adrian Houser.

Megill, who wasn’t promised a rotation spot for 2024, pitched well enough this spring to earn another opportunity to start this season. In 15 2/3 innings, he struck out 16 batters and pitched to a 3.45 ERA, all while debuting a new pitch he added this offseason, deemed the “American Spork.”

With his new arsenal, Megill beat out José Buttó for the final spot in the rotation, who was optioned back to the Triple-A Syracuse. Now, with Megill locked in as the final starter, the Mets have an official rotation heading into 2024. Here is how they’ve performed in spring training through March 21:

  • José Quintana: 4 GS, 13 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 12 SO
  • Luis Severino: 3 GS, 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 8 SO
  • Sean Manaea: 3 GS, 11 2/3 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 14 SO
  • Adrian Houser: 4 GS, 12 IP, 5.25 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 14 SO
  • Tylor Megill: 4 GS, 15 2/3 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 16 SO

While the rotation isn’t headlined by Hall-of-Fame names from years prior, it has at least turned heads this spring. Mets’ starters have the second-best ERA this spring (3.07) behind the Dodgers (2.86), and have received positive performances from bounce-back candidates in Severino, Manaea, and Megill.

Severino, in particular, could be a game-changer for the Mets. The former ace has shown impeccable command in the Grapefruit League, allowing zero walks while reaching the upper-90s with his fastball. Both are outstanding signs for Severino, who recorded a 6.65 ERA in 89 1/3 innings last season for the Yankees.

The combination of encouraging performances also distracts from the fact the Mets are missing Kodai Senga. The Japanese starter established himself as the Mets ace last season, pitching to a 2.98 ERA and finishing second in National League Rookie of the Year voting. Senga sustained a shoulder injury in February and won’t return to his throwing program until April.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

Evaluation

The Mets rotation has the chance to be surprisingly good. But it hinges on a lot of ifs.

The first “if” is Quintana, the Mets’ Opening Day starter. He pitched only 75 2/3 innings last season and turned 35 before the start of the 2024 season. The Mets need Quintana to be healthy to stay afloat early in 2023 and return to his 2022 form, where he pitched to a 2.93 ERA and made 32 starts.

Like Quintana, the Mets also need Severino to be healthy in 2024, which is a big ask based on his track record. Severino has only pitched in 209 1/3 innings since 2019, dealing with multiple injuries that have affected his throwing elbow and shoulder. The hope is that Severino can translate his 2022 numbers over a full season, where he recorded a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts.

The top of the rotation is filled health related question marks. But like the top, the bottom is also filled with question marks, mostly about performance. Let’s start with Houser and Manaea.

The two left-handers both finished with ERAs north of four in 2023, while also recording less than 120 innings. These stats are more fitting of an opener, not No. 3 and 4 starters.

The best possible outcome is a turnaround from Manaea, which he displayed at the end of last season after pitching to a 2.25 ERA in four starts. He came into camp pumping 96-mile-per-hour fastballs and boasts a 3.09 ERA in three starts.

Meanwhile, Houser just needs to replicate his numbers from Milwaukee in Queens. As a starter with a low four-ERA, he can hand the ball to the bullpen with the Mets still in the game.

As if four question marks weren’t enough, Megill also begins the 2024 season with eyes on him. The righty got a similar chance last season in the rotation, but had a 4.67 ERA at the end of May, and a 5.17 ERA at the end of June.

Megill’s struggles have often been linked to how deep his start goes, raising questions as to whether or not he was better suited for the bullpen. The hope, however, for Megill is his new pitch. The “American Spork” could be a hit success in the majors, giving Megill a third putaway pitch that allows him to go deep into games.

Conclusion

The Mets need a lot to go right in their rotation for this upcoming season.

First and foremost, Quintana and Severino need to stay healthy. And if they do, the Mets need them to pitch like No. 1 and 2s until Senga returns from injury.

The bottom of the rotation also needs to hold down the fort. Mainly, Manaea and Megill need to go at least five innings and give the Mets a chance to win. Houser will inevitably be a swingman, and if Manaea and Megill can’t successfully get to the halfway mark of the game, the bullpen will get overworked again by June.

Still, despite all the question marks, there’s a lot to like about this rotation. It’s filled with veterans, former All-Stars, and lively arms who have succeeded at the major league level. They’ve shown their capabilities this spring and could make this summer fun for Mets fans if they carry that over into the regular season.

Another plus for the Mets is the starting pitching talent and depth they will have in Triple-A Syracuse. They will have the aforementioned Buttó, top pitching prospect Christian Scott, and prospects Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel, too.

But that’s ahead in the future. The Mets still have their first series at hand next weekend against the Brewers, where we’ll all get a look at the rotation. As slated right now, Quintana will pitch on Opening Day, followed by Severino in Game 2 and Megill in Game 3.