Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
The Mets lost 7-0 to the Cardinals on Monday night at Citi Field in what felt like a golden opportunity to pick up ground in both the division and Wild Card. The Braves, Phillies, and Reds all had the day off, meaning the Mets were guaranteed to gain ground with a win. And the Padres (started night as second Wild Card leader) were beginning a four-game series against baseball’s best in San Francisco.
Instead of taking advantage of the circumstances on Monday, the Mets offense laid an egg against Adam Wainwright as their playoff chances got even slimmer.
FanGraphs has the Mets current odds to win the division at 2.3% with them being five and half games back with 17 games left to play.
Braves 76-66 (current division leader)
Phillies 72-71, 4.5 GB
Mets 72-73, 5.5 GB
The Braves have a three-game series against the Rockies starting tonight, then a three-game set in San Francisco against the Giants, four against the D’Backs in Arizona, four vs the Padres on the road, three against the Phillies at home, and then finish the season with three games against the Mets in Atlanta.
The Phillies are back in action tonight with three games against the Cubs in Philly, then they travel to New York for three games with the Mets, go back to Philly with three against the Orioles and four against the Pirates, and then a three-game set against the Braves in Atlanta and a three-game set in Miami to finish the season.
FanGraphs has the Mets current odds to win a Wild Card spot at 2.0% despite them being three and half games back.
Dodgers 92-52 (first WC spot leader)
Reds 75-69 (second WC spot leader)
Padres 74-69, 0.5 GB
Cardinals 74-69, 0.5 GB
Phillies 72-71, 2.5 GB
Mets 72-73, 3.5 GB
Dodgers are clearly winning the first wild card spot (or Giants if they fall from division lead).
Reds have three games with the Pirates on the road starting tonight before a 10-game home stand that includes three games with the Pirates, three with the Dodgers, and four with the Nationals. The Reds then go back on the road with a two-game series vs the White Sox and finish the season with three in Pittsburgh against the Pirates.
The Padres have the most difficult schedule of all by quite a bit. They finish their current series with three more in San Fran before heading to St. Louis for three games. Then they have three more games with the Giants, this time at home, and then four games at home vs Atlanta. They finish the season with three games in LA vs the Dodgers and three games against the Giants in San Fran. Ouch.
Cardinals finish up their current series with two more at Citi Field before heading to San Diego for three. It’s all Cubs and Brewers after that for Cardinals, with seven games against each to close out the season.
The Mets chance to get right back into it starts on Tuesday and Wednesday, when they finish out their series with the Cardinals. The following series is against another team they’re following in the standings, three against the Phillies at home. They then travel to play the Red Sox in Boston sandwiched in-between off days. Mets then travel to Milwaukee for three against the Brewers. Following another off day, the Mets host the pesky Marlins for four games in three days.
Mets season could come down to the final series of the year, a three-game set in Atlanta against the Braves.
As you can see, the Mets chances of making the playoffs in year one of the Steve Cohen ownership is extremely thin.
