Mets Offseason Plan No. 1: Bring in Yamamoto, Lots of Pitching

Isn’t this the best part of the year? All winter long, we fans at MMO get to play GM (or pres. of baseball operations in this winter’s case) and decide what the best course of action will be for our New York Mets.

OFFSEASON PLAN NO. 1 – TOMMETS

To clarify, whatever I suggest below will be a mixture between what I believe the Mets will attempt to pull off and what I think they should do. Of course, the Mets should sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, trade for Juan Soto, and create a super bullpen! That’s not gonna happen, unfortunately, so sorry for bursting any bubbles.

In general, I think the Mets should be advantageous regarding high-profile moves, as it has been the Steve Cohen motto since he took over as owner. However, a smart play this winter would be to compound a ton of pitching adds, with some veteran hitting on short-term deals. That’s not to say they shouldn’t take the opportunity should it come to them.

ROTATION

The Mets find themselves, once again, in need of pitching reinforcements. We saw 2023 collapse largely in part due to injuries and underperformances of veteran starters, namely Verlander, Scherzer, and Carrasco. Pair that with a flat bullpen, which was supposed to be anchored by Edwin Diaz, and a recipe for disaster unfolded.

Senga, fresh off of a 2nd place Rookie of the Year finish, is accompanied by José Quintana as the only two locks of the rotation at the moment. As of now, Senga can be considered a solid #1 or a really good #2 and Quintana should really be etched in as a #4, if we’re looking to be a contending team. That means there are three legitimate holes to fill in the rotation alone.

To me, this portion of the offseason starts and ends with Yamamoto. I see such a gap between him and the next tier of available starting pitchers, that if they don’t land him – they should truly start considering more of a transition year than not. First of all, there’s no qualifying offer attached, unlike the next 3 top starting pitching free agents (Nola, Snell, Gray). He gives the Mets a powerful combination at the front of the rotation. He’s 25 years old, 5-6 pitch mix, and throws a high 90s fastball. Pairing him with Senga would automatically ensure the rotation and solve many problems for 2024 and beyond. I have him getting a massive 8-year, $220M contract with opt-outs.

As for the remaining two rotation slots, I find it quite difficult to find sufficient solutions. They could pursue a trade for an available SP, but I’m not sure the Mets have the prospect capital for a move like that yet (where we wouldn’t delete the progress made over the past year). And while Stearns can certainly surprise us with a move working with established relationships such as the Brewers or the Rays, I’m going to say that he just flexes the muscle of money to round out the rotation.

I have two prime targets that I’m very interested in for a few reasons. Lucas Giolito & Wade Miley are really nice compliments to a rotation that would feature Yamamoto, Senga, and Quintana.

Giolito has certainly had an up-and-down career, but between Stearns coming in and creating a stronger pitching plan from the systems he puts in place compared to an organization like the White Sox, I can definitely see him settling in and turning a corner on his career. Most importantly, he can provide some real stability with his innings. His IP since 2018: 173.1, 176.2, 72.1 (2020 season), 178.2, 161.2, 184.1. I’ve always said that you buy innings, then you buy quality innings. And if Giolito can give us that 118 ERA+ he gave the White Sox last season for 21 games before being shipped away (twice), it would show a great benefit not dissimilar to something we received from Bassitt in 2022. Giolito’s innings likely drives his price tag up near $20M AAV. I could certainly see him going for a shorter-term deal at 2-3 years, with opt-outs.

Miley keeps chugging along into his age-37 season. Someone who used to be an absolute workhorse, he’s seen his role change around a little over the past few years. As a guy who can be plugged into the #5 spot or split some time into the bullpen as well, a versatile pitcher whose ERA+ has averaged 136 over the past three seasons could give the Mets some nice flexibility. He can be a really nice piece if the Mets decide to go to a 6 man rotation, particularly when Peterson returns to injury, or if they’d like to utilize someone like Megill or Butto. I’m going to peg Miley’s AAV to be just above Trevor Williams and other former Met, Seth Lugo deals last winter: 2-years, $16M.

If we end up missing out on those two guys, an intriguing arm with a Stearns connection, to me, is Eric Lauer. He had an extremely bad 2023 season, but I wonder if that was largely partly due to injury early in the season. It could be questioned if Stearns can work up some more magic and get Lauer back to his 2021-2022 campaign numbers.

BULLPEN

This is where I think Cohen should honestly spend the most. It’s just a win-win to have a strong, deep bullpen. If the Mets are good, they can rely on a plethora of arms to round out ball games day in and day out. If they’re bad, but get some good relief performances, they’re the easiest assets to be flipped at the deadline and the Mets can continue to grow their farm.

As for names they should target, really anyone. I think David Robertson is a fine guy to bring back, regardless of age and dip in performance after being sent to the Marlins last summer. He enjoyed being a Met, has a chip on his shoulder, and I think much of his failure as Marlins closer had to do with overuse and the dynamics of having to move and all that (which he expanded on in an interview).

Past Robertson, I’m really a fan of Matt Moore, Reynaldo Lopez, Ryne Stanek, and Robert Stephenson. Moore and Stanek can provide multi-inning outings, which was something the Mets were DESPERATELY missing after losing Trevor Williams & Seth Lugo. Stanek and Lopez throw HARD. Both pitchers sit at 96th percentile fastball velocity and are high strikeout pitchers, which I think has massive importance as relievers. However, both also come with walk issues, which is the opposite of what to look for in a reliever.

I definitely wouldn’t be surprised to see an Ottavino reunion, even after he opted out, though I’m more intrigued by having a diversified portfolio of relievers who have different pitch mixes and arm angles.

The bottom line is to add three arms to plug between Diaz and Raley, and the bullpen will look extremely formidable. Robertson received 1/$10M from the Mets last year, so something similar would likely be in order, maybe a bit lower at $8.5M or so. That’s likely the ballpark AAV for any other higher-end reliever we will grab.

POSITION PLAYERS

I see a little bit of opportunity for the Mets to improve on the offensive side of things, though it’s going to have to be creative. I fully expect the Mets to drop Vogelbach from the roster. I also think Baty & Mauricio will both have opportunities to play every day. That scenario likely results in McNeil playing a decent amount of outfield. Further, Marte might end up being more of a role player. In essence, I think the Mets should be adding three position players: a power hitter, a utility player, and an outfielder.

I’ve been increasingly inclined to pursue Rhys Hoskins as our DH next year. Someone looking to recoup value on a 1-year deal after tearing his ACL early in 2023. With a career ISO of .250, he provides some pop and a somewhat disciplined approach to the middle of the lineup, a sturdy compliment to Alonso. I can see Hoskins getting a deal between $15-19M AAV. I’d be fine with giving him 2 years as well. In a crazy world, if Alonso departs after 2024, we’d have a viable option to take over at 1st for a year. Past Hoskins, I really don’t see a realistic fit elsewhere to pick up as our DH. JD Martinez & Justin Turner are probably next on the list, but I believe them to be priorities elsewhere or not fit the profile of what we’d want to grab.

For the infielder/outfielder addition combo, I apologize, but I just couldn’t make up my mind here. I have thought up two scenarios, which would be a trade and a signing that would align with the philosophy of short-term veteran deals that do not severely hurt the farm:

Scenario 1:

As for the utility infielder, I think the most important part for this role is somebody who can end up playing 3rd base, should Baty and/or Mauricio falter. I have one surplus upgrade in mind regarding a trade – Jorge Polanco. While his 3B play has been limited, he’s had experience at both SS and 2B for the Twins as well. A solidly above-average bat, his versatility will also allow McNeil to shift into playing the outfield more regularly, should it be needed. Polanco is owed $10.5M in 2024 with a still team-friendly $12M team option for 2025. In exchange, the Mets could dangle Marco Vargas, acquired from the Marlins this past summer in exchange for David Robertson.

With the Polanco adds, a more “3.5” type outfielder could be had on a solid 2-year deal. If I wanted a notch higher, I’d go for Lourdes Gurriel. Though, I’d be perfectly fine with either Duvall or Renfroe on a shorter-term deal. Good/great defense, solid arm, tons of power.

Scenario 2:

This is a scenario where McNeil sticks at 2nd base for the majority of the season. Therefore, a true utility guy in the infield who is more or less a better version of Luis Guillorme is brought in.

This might be the most unpopular suggestion in this plan. Isiah Kinfer-Falefa is my choice of a utility player. IKF’s bat isn’t one that should be counted on as an everyday player. However, his team-first attitude and willingness/ability to play virtually every position on the diamond is an invaluable trait. He likely gets around $6.5M AAV, possibly for 2 years.

The trade portion of this scenario is certainly a more intriguing one. I’m looking at the Orioles absolute glut of outfielders. They have 8 (!!) on their 40-man roster, many of whom are highly-touted prospects, along with veterans Austin Hays & Cedric Mullins. I have been wanting the third veteran of this group for a few years now, Anthony Santander. The 29-year-old has two years of arbitration remaining. He switch hits, had an OPS+ of 121 last year with 28 HRs and 95 RBIs in a stacked Orioles offense. That kind of production would give the Mets lineup a much-needed boost and still add some versatility. He’s projected $12.7M in arbitration for 2024 (MLBTR). Once again, Marco Vargas could be a headlining piece in a trade to obtain Santander.

FINAL TALLY

Key additions: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (8 years, $220M), Lucas Giolito (3 years, $60M), Wade Miley (2 years, $16M), David Robertson (1 year, $8.5M), Reynaldo Lopez/Robert Stephenson (3 years, $29M), Matt Moore (1 year $8M), Rhys Hoskins (2 years, $36M), Jorge Polanco/Anthony Santander ($10M/projected $12.7M), IKF/Duvall/Renfroe (2 years, $13M)

Key subtractions: Carlos Carrasco (free agency), Adam Ottavino (free agency), Daniel Vogelbach (non-tender), Luis Guillorme (non-tender), prospects for Santander/Polanco

This plan was made by MMO reader/moderator Tommets