New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen said he wanted to eliminate “ifs” within the franchise. He’s certainly made moves to do so in terms of position player depth, but the 2019 Mets team still has a pretty big IF rounding out their rotation.
Left-hander Jason Vargas is coming off a season in which he posted a 5.77 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in just 92 innings. He did pitch better in the second half (3.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) after a horrible first half that was likely caused by a spring injury derailed his normal preseason routine.
While there’s absolutely a chance that Vargas is better than that 5.77 ERA in 2019 (4.37 projected by Steamers), why leave that IF at the end of the rotation for a team built to win in the short-term.
You also have Steven Matz as the Mets fourth starter. He did pitch in a career-high 154 innings last season with a 3.97 ERA, but he’s had a history of injury issues and only made 13 starts in 2017. Matz and Vargas leave some to be desired at the back-end of the Mets rotation.
Don’t get me wrong, the Mets front three of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Zack Wheeler could be on the best trios in baseball. Matz and Vargas are question marks. After them are a group of pitchers with very little MLB experience in Walker Lockett, Chris Flexen, P.J. Conlon, Drew Gagnon, and Corey Oswalt. And not much MLB success. The Mets signed veteran Hector Santiago to a minor league deal, but he’s more of a bullpen arm at this point in his career.
Which brings us to a couple of solid free agent starter options somehow still available on March 1.
Veteran lefties Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez are still available. As are righties Edwin Jackson, James Shields, Bartolo Colon, and Miguel Gonzalez. But let’s focus on the top two pieces that would certainly improve the Mets rotation.
Keuchel, 31, is not the same pitcher he was when he won the American League Cy Young Award back in 2015, though he can still prove useful. The lefty had 3.74 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, and 2.64 SO/W in 204.2 innings last year for the Astros.
One key in that stat line for Keuchel is the 200 innings, something only one Mets starter did in 2018, Jacob deGrom. Keuchel has thrown at least 200 innings in three of his six major full seasons.
Despite Keuchel not being a frontline starter anymore (career-low 6.73 K/9 in 2019), he still posted a 3.6 fWAR and 2.6 WAR last season.
It’s tough to predict the type of deal that Keuchel would get as a 31-year-old starter in the current free agent market. MLB Trade Rumors predicted four years, $82 million before the offseason starter. The top two starter on the market, Patrick Corbin and Nathan Eovaldi, got six years, $140 million and four years, $68 million respectively.
Both Corbin and Eovaldi are only 29 though. The next best deal for a starter this offseason was claimed by Keuchel’s teammate in Houston, Charlie Morton at two years, $30 million. Morton is 35 coming off a 3.1 fWAR and 3.5 WAR season for Houston.
While Gonzalez certainly isn’t in the same tier of pitcher as Keuchel, he’s very likely an upgrade over Vargas for the 2019 season.
Gonzalez, 33, went 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA, 4.16 FIP, 1.44 WHIP, and 1.85 SO/W in 171 innings between the Nationals and Brewers. He was better down the stretch for the Brewers with a 2.13 ERA in five starts for them.
Over the last nine MLB seasons, Gonzalez has averaged 187 innings pitched and his fewest during that time was 158.2 in 2014. He did see his fWAR drop from 3.4 in 2017 to just 2.0 last year (though still much than Vargas’ 0.1 and the 0.8 posted by Matz).
Neither Keuchel or Gonzalez are likely front-end starters anymore, but with the Mets they would be looking for them to shore up the back-end. Of course, there’s likely a substantial price difference between the two with Gonzalez two years older and less effective last season.
Van Wagenen traded for Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano, Keon Broxton, and J.D. Davis. He also signed Jed Lowrie, Jeurys Familia, Luis Avilan, and Justin Wilson. The Mets are certainly a better team than when they started the offseason, but you could argue that fact for the Braves, Nationals, and Phillies as well.
The National League East is going to be a battle with four good teams. While the Mets are one of those good teams (currently projected to finish 4th after Bryce Harper signing), they shouldn’t stop now. Why not eliminate another IF by signing Keuchel or Gonzalez. The Mets are trying to win now, signing another starter would certainly go along way in doing that.
