Mets Need To Be Cautious of Prospect Capital Usage This Offseason

On Nov. 11, the Mets sit at the GM Meetings with a lot of question marks.

That being said, I implore the Mets to avoid spending too much prospect capital to obtain answers.

The farm system has seen significant improvement since the deadline with the acquisitions of Jefferson Rojas, Émilien Pitre, Sammy Stafura among others.

However, the only Mets prospect currently ranked inside MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list is Rojas.

In my opinion, he should be off limits unless you are acquiring a starter with at least two or more years of control that is able to anchor the pitching staff.

After being acquired in the Clay Holmes/Tyrone Taylor trade, Rojas had a slash line of .280/.336/.593 with nine homers and 29 RBIs in just 29 games at Double-A Binghamton prior to hitting another three homers at Triple-A Syracuse in just six games.

Keep in mind he’s also very close to major league ready at this point.

The Past is Often an Indicator of the Future

Could they survive with one or two moderately priced prospect packages to get a starter of some sort?

Yes, but they don’t have the same abundance of prospect capital they had prior to the 2026 season. They used some of that capital to acquire Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers with Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat.

It’s important to note that, at the time, Williams and Sproat were both consensus top 100 prospects. That would be the going rate again for the top-end of the starting pitching market.

After opening day, the Mets farm system ranking fell down into the bottom 1/3 of the league after Opening Day after entering the season in the top 1/3 of the league. The system ranks around roughly middle of the pack currently, according to MLB Pipeline.

Now, the Mets system ranking prior to the deadline went down significantly largely due to prospect graduations in Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, and AJ Ewing, so they are not lacking in young talent at the major league level currently.

That being said, underperformance from prospects like Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger didn’t help the cause either.

The Mets Need Starting Pitching

I hear you. 

The starting rotation needs help and could certianly benefit from an anchor at the top of the staff.

However, I simply do believe the Mets can likely find most of their answers here in free agency.

The simple one is Tarik Skubal, which the Mets must be the most aggressive team in pursuing him.

From there, I actually believe the Mets would be fine with adding one or two middle-to-back end rotation options. The free agent market has plenty of those even in a free agent class that has been labeled one of the worst in recent memory.

Whether you want a reunion with Clay Holmes or want to bring in Michael King, Shota Imanaga, or Nick Pivetta to the Big Apple, there’s certainly options.

And the beauty of all of those options is that they only will cost money, which is Steve Cohen’s and the Mets’ biggest advantage.

Outside of maybe Michael King, none of those options should require more than a three-year deal.

What if Skubal Goes Elsewhere?

Now if you miss out on Skubal to start with, does that force you into trading for a top-end arm?

I would personally argue no as I think the Mets biggest issue last year was the lack of quality options more so than a lack of a true ace.

The Mets simply cycled through too many starting pitchers last year and many were simply ineffective.

Would I love the idea of getting Logan Gilbert or Drew Rasmussen?

100%, but I also am fully aware of the likelihood that it will cost either Rojas or someone like Jonah Tong to get that deal done. With all due respect, I’m not sure the Mets are in position right now to be trading away high-end prospects for mere rentals.

The Mets in theory could go shopping in the trade market for a mid-rotation option. But why give up talent in a trade for something you can easily acquire for just money?

I’m not saying that they can’t trade for a starter, but they need to be careful as to how they go about it.

An improving farm system can quickly become a decimated one if you’re not cautious.

CBA Question Marks Paint Cloud Over Trade Market

Additionally, the pure rental starting pitching class has it’s own set of questions due to CBA negotiations.

How do we know that any of these arms will ever actually pitch in a Mets uniform?

And the even bigger question is why would they give up top-end talent for one of them with that uncertainty?

They would be taking on all the risk with potentially reduced or zero benefit. You can’t even guarantee the existence of the QO as collateral after the new CBA eventually gets agreed to.

All of this is to say, the Mets need to be careful here. The last thing they need right now is a weakened farm system.