While the New York Mets fell short of making the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, they received an incredible performance from their longest-tenured position player, which will likely lead to some very interesting contract negotiations this offseason.
At the beginning of the season, which feels like several years ago at this point, very few experts believed outfielder Michael Conforto would be able to take his game up another level, especially since he was entering his age-27 campaign.
That said, the former first-round selection did exactly that over the 60-game shortened season, as he was on pace to produce a career-high 5.4 fWAR rating over a full 162-game campaign.
Though the left-handed batter suffered an oblique injury before the league’s shutdown in March, the additional time off allowed him to recover over the next few months and ultimately helped him prepare for spring training 2.0 in July.
As a result, the veteran outfielder was able to generate one of the best statistical performances of his entire career.
Over his 233 plate appearances, Conforto produced 12 doubles, nine home runs, 31 RBIs, .193 ISO, .412 BABIP (.122 increase from 2019), .401 wOBA (.043 increase), 10.3% walk rate, 24.5% strikeout rate, 11.0% barrel rate (0.1% increase), 30.3% LD rate (6.4% increase), 36.6% hard-hit rate, 157 wRC+ score (31-point increase), 2.0 fWAR rating, along with a slashing line of .322 (.065 increase)/.412 (.049 increase)/.515 (.021 increase)/.927 (.071 increase).
Adding to this, the Washington State native was one of the top producing outfielders across the entire major leagues this past season.
Though his 2020 campaign ended prematurely, as he suffered a hamstring injury during the final week of the regular season, the 6-foot-1 outfielder was still able to finish near the top of the leaderboard in several different categories.
Among all qualified outfielders, Conforto finished with the highest BABIP and LD rate, the third-highest AVG, the fourth-highest OBP, the sixth-highest wOBA, the seventh-highest wRC+ score and fWAR rating, tied for the eighth-highest OPS, and the 17th-highest SLG, according to FanGraphs.com.
Along with his stellar overall offensive production, the Oregon State standout was also able to significantly improve his reverse splits during his sixth season in the major leagues.
Proving left-handed hitters can perform effectively against left-handed pitchers, the unofficial leader of the Mets ranked as one of the top lefty batters in the majors and outperformed the majority of his career metrics while facing a lefty arm.
Through 86 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Conforto recorded three doubles (tied for fifth-most among all qualified left-handed hitters), four home runs (tied for third-most), 10 RBIs (tied for seventh-most), .203 ISO (15th-highest), .340 BABIP (16th-highest), .378 wOBA (11th-highest), 9.3% walk rate, 23.3% strikeout rate, 20.4% LD rate, 33.3% hard-hit rate, 142 wRC+ score (ninth-highest), along with a slashing line of .284/.384/.486/.870 (11th-highest).
In comparison, No. 30 had earned 2,268 career plate appearances against left-handers entering this past season, producing 109 home runs, 310 RBIs, .229 ISO, .294 BABIP, .353 wOBA, 12.3% walk rate, 24.2% strikeout rate, 21.9% LD rate, 38.2% hard-hit rate, 125 wRC+ score, and a slashing line of .253/.353/.481/.834.
Considering the one-time All-Star recorded career-highs in home runs (33) and RBIs (92) in 2019, it’s certainly not surprising most people thought he had already reached the peak of his career before this season began.
But since “Scooter” reminded everyone he should be considered as one of the game’s top outfielders, there’s a possibility his salary could start reflecting that sentiment moving forward, as he’ll be entering the final year of his current contract next season.
Based on his impressive results from this past season, along with his comments about desiring to stay in Queens long term, it’d make plenty of sense for the Mets’ front office to explore an extension with Conforto this offseason.
Though neither side discussed a new contract during the regular season and barely spoke to each other in the spring, there’s optimism a deal could be finalized if former general manager Sandy Alderson does indeed return to the team over the next few months, as he originally drafted the right fielder during the 2014 MLB Draft.
Whether it’s through arbitration or on a one-year deal, the former top prospect is likely destined to receive a slight raise from his 2020 salary of $8 million this winter.
That said, his price tag will probably increase even further if the club allows him to reach the open market after the 2021 campaign, as there’s a strong chance he’d be considered one of the top outfielders available and could look to take his services elsewhere.
Hoping to avoid that scenario, the Mets must lock Conforto up as quickly as possible, and determining the value of his next contract shouldn’t prove to be overly complicated.
While there’s very little chance he’ll command a deal similar to Cubs outfielder Jason Heyward‘s eight-year $184 million contract, it seems more realistic the 27-year old’s next agreement could be similar to Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos‘ four-year, $64 million commitment.
Even though the soon-to-be free agent’s defense took a step backward this past season, as he produced a -5 OAA (tied for league-worst among all qualified outfielders) over 438 1/3 innings, his historically impressive defensive resume – +7 OAA in right field in 2019 – should help offset this disappointing small sample size.
With that said, his overall defensive performance is certainly something the team should keep an eye on moving forward.
Since New York’s front office is expected to be extremely aggressive in free agency this offseason, Confortos’ contract negotiations will likely occur closer to the end of 2020 or perhaps at the beginning of 2021.
Regardless of when those discussions take place, it’ll be crucial for the veteran outfielder to begin his seventh season in the majors with a new contract that’ll hopefully keep him in Queens for the foreseeable future.
