Mets’ Manager Spot In Flux Entering 2023 Off-Season

Buck Showalter brought home the 2022 NL Manager of the Year award after the Mets went from a 77-win team to a 101-win team in their first year under Buck. Not even one full year later, the Mets dismissed Showalter from the managerial position.

Things went sideways for Showalter and the Mets in 2023. The team struggled out the gates, injuries piled up, expensive veterans underperformed, top prospects struggled to find MLB success, and the Mets have wrapped up the final week of arguably the most disappointing season in MLB history.

While there is tons of blame to go around, some finds itself on the shoulders of Showalter, who was set to enter the final year of his contract in 2024. What made things more uncertain for the 67-year old veteran, the Mets are set to hire David Stearns as the team’s new president of baseball operations, giving him the entitlement “to bring in his own people,” as Mets’ owner Steve Cohen put it.

Stearns had a very successful run in Milwaukee and created a dynamic duo with manager Craig Counsell that saw incredible success, including coming within a win of reaching the World Series in the fall of 2018. However, despite his successes, Counsell is in the final year of his contract in Milwaukee with no extension in place. Could Counsell find his way to Queens? With Showalter on his way out, who else is out there? There are a ton of questions around the Mets’ skipper position entering the 2023 off-season, so lets make some sense of it all.

Why Did The Mets Fire Buck After 2022’s Success?

Buck Showalter and the Mets authored a near perfect 2022 season. The team succeeded early, saw multiple players grow into larger roles, had immediate impact from newly acquired veterans, and weathered the storm until the return of Jacob deGrom. However, the Mets saw a sizable division lead in August slip into a wild card berth, with the Braves bringing home the division crown and the Mets needing to settle for the first wild card spot, instead of a division crown and a first-round bye.

The Mets were then dumped in three games by the Padres. Was this all on Buck? No, of course not. The Mets won 101 games and the Braves played at a historic pace down the stretch to bring home the divisional crown. However, a once magic 2022 ended with a sour taste left in the mouth of the Mets and their fans. The Mets entered 2023 with an overhauled rotation, a different bullpen philosophy, and some roles still seeming uncertain entering the year, specifically the DH spot.

The 2023 season was a much different tune. The Mets started the year 14-7, but struggling veterans occupied spots where the Mets had surging top prospects in Triple-A, namely Brett Baty, Francisco Álvarez, and Mark Vientos. Showalter was snippy at times when asked about the performance of these prospects in Triple-A, but one-by-one they all ultimately got the call to Queens as players went on the IL or continued to under-preform. As these prospects came up, they all saw sporadic playing time upon promotion and immediate successes, but were continuing to play everyday when they struggled.

The Mets did not equip Showalter with the best bullpen, but the unit massively struggled this year in the absence of Edwin Díaz. Despite what the bullpen actually looks like, managers will always shoulder blame for the struggles of their unit, just as Showalter has this year.

As was initially stated, the failures of the Mets in 2023 go on many people. Showalter himself did not sign free agents or leave multiple positions on the roster up for grabs entering camp. However, he shoulders much of the blame for how the team fares on the field. Several key pieces under-performed compared to 2022, certain players were over-counted on despite strong struggles, and player-personnel decision were questionable at best more often than not.

The blame with lineup construction and in-game decision falls on Showalter, too. Showalter’s announcement of his dismissal from the Mets should not shock too much. The team, with new management coming in, sees fit to move in a different direction. Only time will tell if this is the correct move for the Mets, but the Showalter era in Queens is over.

Is Counsell A Real Candidate?

Craig Counsell, since he took over the Brewers early in 2015, has been one of the best managers in baseball. He took over a reeling Brewers squad that dismissed manager Ron Roenicke after a 7-18 start, and has managed to a .531 winning percentage in the nine seasons since.

Counsell and the 2023 Brewers are heading back to the postseason, and likely to bring him an NL Central crown in the process. The 2023 Crew hit the 90 win mark again, 92 to be exact, which is the third time they have accomplished that under Counsell. They’ve finished under .500 under Counsell just three times: his first season, which he took over 25 games in, his first full season, and the 2020 Covid-shortened season.

Counsell, with all the success that he has had in Milwaukee, is a pending free agent. His contract runs up at the end of 2023, and there is no new deal in place to keep him in Milwaukee. Counsell figures to be the biggest managerial free agent in quite some time, and you can expect the Mets to try everything they can to bring Stearns’ former partner to Queens.

Jon Heyman reported that Counsell actually plans on being “in the dugout somewhere in 2024.” Counsell, who grew up near Milwaukee, would enter his 10th year with the Brewers in 2024, but the attraction of a larger market, bigger payroll, and David Stearns could be what lures him to Queens.

Despite all of the successes, the Brewers under Counsell and Stearns were never able to get over the hump in the National League playoffs. The closest the duo got was a Game 7 in the 2018 NLCS, which they ultimately dropped to the Dodgers, who then lost the World Series to the Boston Red Sox. Counsell has gotten countless tastes of the playoffs, with 2023 set to be his fifth time as a manager, but at some point, you would expect a desire for more to win out. The Brewers annually trot out a bottom-half of the league payroll, and their rosters always feel to be a bat or arm short of whats needed to win it all.

Counsell could find better resources to get over the hump in Queens, and would be backed by arguably the most World Series hungry owner in the sport. If the Mets hire Counsell, they would have a quartet at the top of Cohen, Stearns, Eppler, and Counsell. This would give the Mets competence and experienced success at the top that they have not had in a long time.

If Not Counsell, Then Who?

Most important in the Craig Counsell discourse is that Counsell has almost every reason to stay in Milwaukee. Counsell has been involved with the Brewers since he joined the team as a player in 2011. He played for them, was on the broadcast team, was an assistant to the general manager, and then manager. Counsell is a Brewer through-and-through, so it is fair to assume that it would take a lot for the skipper to leave. In the world that he does not move east, the Mets need to be prepared for life without Counsell. There are still several names who make sense for the Mets and could mesh with Stearns’ new operation. Here are a few different directions in which the Mets can go.

Showalter had one year left on his deal, and until Sunday afternoon, it felt was if there was a very real chance that he would return for his final year. Above all, Showalter was clearly popular within the Mets clubhouse. Francisco Lindor offered a ringing endorsement for Buck to the New York Post, saying, “Buck holds everybody accountable, he’s a great leader, he’s outstanding at quieting the noise here in the clubhouse, which sometimes can be tough in New York, and he cares for the players.”

That being said, any sort of endorsement from Showalter on his way out the door could carry a ton of weight in the clubhouse and the front office.

If the Mets decide to look internally, it could lead to Binghamton Rumble Ponies manager Reid Bringac, Mets’ bench coach Eric Chavez, or assistant coach Danny Barnes. All three of these names figure to be guys who get attention for the managerial spot for different reasons. Bringac just managed the Rumble Ponies to the Eastern League Championship Series in his second year with the team, is a former Major Leaguer, and has been in the organization since March of 2020.

Chavez and Barnes are both more realistic candidates than Bringac, and have worked with Showalter over the past two seasons. Chavez has served on the Mets staff for two years, and took over games for Showalter in 2023 when he would get ejected. Chavez has proven to be a fan favorite in the Mets’ clubhouse, with a good deal of their 2022 roster crediting his work as hitting coach for their offensive success on their way to 101 wins. Chavez was promoted to bench coach in 2023, and in his first year out of the position, the Mets saw their overall offensive numbers decline.

Danny Barnes also joined the Mets prior to the 2022 season, when the Mets announced his hiring as an assistant coach on the major league staff. Danny Barnes, not to be confused with hitting coach Jeremy Barnes (no relation), is regarded as a strong analytical mind and was an assistance in helping blend the analytics onto the field. Barnes is just 33, but could be an important piece of the Mets coaching staff going forward, should he not wind up their next manager.

Externally, the Mets would be looking for a manager with experience in analytics and experience in a club that has operated in a similar style to the Stearns era Brewers: make the most of a player’s strengths, translate analytics from the front office to the field, and be able to handle the pressure of consistent expectations of success. Obviously, the best fit for this would be Counsell.

However, some other names that fit this bill would be former Giants manager Gabe Kapler, current Red Sox bench coach Will Venable, Padres’ bench coach Ryan Flaherty, and Brewers’ base coach Quintin Berry, but this list could grow if other currently seated managers are dismissed or do not renew their contracts.

The Mets enter this winter with much change afoot: the team is to announce the hiring of David Stearns as the highest ranking baseball operations executive in team history on Monday afternoon, they will need a new manager, and another off-season of opportunity presents itself for Steve Cohen and his ever deep pockets. As it often goes, uncertainty and change is coming for the Mets. But for the first time in a long time, this change feels hopeful for the Mets, and hopeful for a better tomorrow.