Series Preview: Mets Look to Rebound in Boston

Baseball is a very long, arduous, and complicated season.

At times, teams can seem unbeatable. Lineups hit everything in sight, starting pitchers shut down opposing lineups, and bullpens wiggle their way out of jams consistently. On the other hand, teams can also enter massive slumps. Star players seem unable to get the job done, while other areas of the team suddenly stop performing to their capabilities.

For great teams, success or failure is determined by how they navigate the ebbs and flows of the season. Can they stay above board and manage their struggles? Or will they succumb to them and go on a losing streak?

The New York Mets, as we approach Memorial Day, are one of those teams that fall into this category. They are undoubtedly one of the best teams in baseball; their 29-18 record is tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers for the best in the National League. New York is still pitching very well, and they have found a way to win baseball games with their lineup.

However, things are a bit bumpier than they have been up to this point in the year. The lineup has hit a cold spell, only scoring more than three runs once in the last six games. Their bullpen has started to allow more runs, and some of the starting pitching has become more erratic.

Sitting only a half-game up on the Philadelphia Phillies and staring down a late-week series against the Dodgers, the Mets must determine the type of team they will be during their lulls in the season. And before a showdown between the NL’s best, the Mets will travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox.

Boston offers a dynamic lineup headlined by star hitter Alex Bregman and rookie Kristian Campbell. Their pitching can leave a lot to be desired in most games that Garrett Crochet is not pitching; unfortunately for the Mets, they will draw the ace lefty.

New York has the talent to immediately bounce back after their series loss to the Yankees over the weekend. They also could very easily drop another series and start to see a bit of a May slide start to unfold.

The long march toward October continues this week for the Mets, so buckle up for another Metsmerized Online early-week series preview.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Kodai Senga (4–2, 1.02 ERA)  vs. Hunter Dobbins (2-1, 3.90 ERA)

• As the season progresses, it seems that Kodai Senga is getting closer and closer to his ace form as a pitcher. After he struggled with command in his previous outing, Senga struck out seven batters over 5.2 innings pitched. He only walked two batters and scattered five hits over his outing, allowing no earned runs. With a split-finger (AKA the Ghost Fork) amounting to a run average of five and his other pitches starting to round into form, Senga is in a position to give the Mets another quality outing on Monday night. However, some declining fastball velocity may be worth keeping an eye on going forward. As for the Red Sox, Hunter Dobbins will take the mound. Boston’s No. 13 prospect has been solid this season, generating 23 strikeouts while showing a five-pitch mix. The 25-year-old is hittable, but he has an arsenal that could make things difficult if New York does not have the right approach.

Tuesday: Clay Holmes (5–2, 3.14 ERA) vs. TBD

• Boston’s starter for Tuesday has yet to be announced, but the Mets will send one of their best to the hill. In his last start, Holmes braved the conditions and battled through six innings of work. He gave up two home runs and four runs altogether, striking out four batters and issuing one walk. Despite this, Holmes’ fastballs and offspeed pitches have worked pretty well for him; according to Baseball Savant, the starting pitcher has a run value of six for his fastball. When his command is under control, Holmes can rack up strikeouts better than arguably any pitcher on the Mets. Boston’s lineup will be a difficult task, but it is not unreasonable to think that Holmes will pass another test in good standing. 

Wednesday: Tylor Megill (3–4, 3.74 ERA) vs. Garrett Crochet (4–3, 2.00 ERA)

• Closing out the series, the Mets will send out their wildcard to face the Red Sox’s ace. Tylor Megill completely imploded in his most recent start against the New York Yankees, as he issued five walks and allowed four earned runs. As a result, he was chased from the game after 2.2 innings pitched. Megill has the strikeout stuff in droves, as his strikeout percentage is 29.0%, and his whiff rate is 29.3%. However, the veteran has walked 22 batters in 43.1 innings pitched, only ten off his total from last season. More so than any pitcher on the roster, Megill needs to be able to locate. If he cannot find the zone in this start, his time in the rotation, and maybe even on the team, may not be much longer. As for Boston, Garrett Crochet has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He has carved through opposing lineups this season, striking out 73 batters in 63 innings pitched. His arsenal has been filthy, as none of his five pitches have a negative run value. To put it simply, the Mets better bring their A-game on Wednesday, or they will have a very tough time winning the last game of the series. 

The Main Headline

While I could harp on and his perceived “struggles,” I do not see that as the main headline facing the Mets this week. Soto has a proven track record as a superstar, and it is only a matter of time before he begins a hot streak. Rather, I want to focus on  and .

Marte has been abysmal at the plate this year as one of the main options for New York at DH. While he is not striking out as much, all of the important metrics for hitting are down from previous seasons. Marte has seen his success against fastballs plummet (.186 BA from .269), his barrel rate fall to 5.2%, and his average exit velocity drop to 86.8. He is also chasing more often than he used to, seeing the rate climb to 31.5%.

While Vientos is hitting average at the plate, his defense has been abysmal. Up to this point in the season, the third baseman has a negative six OAA. To break this down even further, he has zero OAA when fielding the ball in the hole near shortstop, generating a success rate of 63%. However, Vientos has struggled to field the ball cleanly when playing at third base; he has negative three OAA alone when playing third base straight up.

For two different reasons, these situations will need to have quick resolutions if the Mets want to be a top-notch contender in 2025.

There are plenty of solutions that could arise for the Mets in these two areas, whether through a trade or a minor league promotion. However, for the solutions to occur, the Mets must first take action. The clock, in different ways, is ticking for Marte’s roster spot and Vientos’s defensive role. When midnight strikes, it is up to the Mets, specifically, whether they want it to be proactive or reactive.

Prediction

After their series loss against the Yankees,  I see the Mets rebounding to take two of three from the Red Sox.  Holmes and Senga will navigate Boston’s lineup and secure wins for New York.  Juan Soto will hit two home runs in the series, while Pete Alonso will hit one. Francisco Alvarez will notch two RBIs as well. Heading into a showdown with the Dodgers, the Mets will sit at 31-19.