Series Preview: Mets Look to Extend Streak in San Diego

All aboard the New York Mets express!

After some struggles earlier in July, the Mets took care of another series sweep, this time against the San Francisco Giants. Winners of seven straight games and the holders of one of the best records in the National League, it seems that New York is back on track.

Up next for the Mets are the San Diego Padres. Another contender in the National League, the Friars have some of the best upper-level talent in baseball and will likely present a difficult challenge. Additionally, the games could easily swing the current playoff standings; both the Mets and Padres are working to fend off other teams trying to overtake them.

It is another series that promises to test the Mets and offer them another chance to prove they are ready to compete for the National League crown. And, as always, we have you covered for all of your series preview needs here at Metsmerized Online. So, without further ado, let us dive into what to expect from this battle on the West Coast!

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA)  vs. Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA)

• In their first game against the Padres, the Mets will send Frankie Montas to the mound. The veteran pitcher, despite some blowup outings earlier in the year, has leveled out into a solid starter for New York. Montas struck out six batters, walked two batters, and allowed two runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Angels. While his 4.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP on the season do not look the best, Montas has a 3.63 ERA in July. He has a 1.16 WHIP in the month and has increased his strikeouts to 13 from 10. When viewing his underlying numbers, they reveal that Montas is throwing hard, avoiding barrels, and not walking many batters. He may not be an ace for the Mets, but it is more than likely that Montas will produce another solid outing that will allow the Mets to have a chance to win the game. 
• As for San Diego, Dylan Cease is set to take the bump. In 2025, the pitcher has been extremely “boom-or-bust” for the Padres in multiple categories. On the positive side of things, Cease is striking batters at a consistent level. He has 144 strikeouts on the year, has a 33.9 whiff%, and is striking out batters at a 29.6% clip. Additionally, Cease is generating a positive run value on three of his pitches. However, Cease is getting smoked when batters make contact with his pitches. He is allowing a 10.1 barrel%, a 41.8% hard hit rate, and an average exit velocity of 89.3 mph. To put it simply, the Mets need to make Cease work and capitalize on his mistakes. Otherwise, it could be a long night for the offense. 

Tuesday: Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19 ERA) vs. TBD

• New York, in the second game of the series, will send out Sean Manaea. The lefty has been extremely effective in his first three starts of the season, sporting a 2.19 ERA, an expected ERA of 2.80, and 18 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings pitched. While he does not qualify yet, Manaea would register in the upper percentiles of average exit velocity, strikeout percentage, and hard-hit rate. The Tribal Chief has arrived back in New York in a very good way, and I would expect another very competitive outing, at the very least, against the Padres this week. 
• As of the writing of this article, the Padres do not have a listed starter for Tuesday’s game.

Wednesday: Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40 ERA) vs. TBD

• To wrap things up, the Mets will send Clay Holmes to the mound. Most fans, if you have watched his starts, know what Holmes has been about in 2025. The former closer has limited hard contact, keeps the ball on the ground at an extremely high clip, and has kept his overall pitching run value in the positive range for the whole season. He can walk multiple batters at a time, strikeout multiple batters at a time, or keep the ball in play to allow his defenders to make plays. In short, he has been a solid pitcher with highs and lows in 2025, but has ultimately given the Mets a high floor for the majority of the 2025 season. As always, Holmes should be in line for a solid outing if he keeps his command in check and locates at a high clip; otherwise, he could run into some trouble and put some stress on the bullpen.
• As of now, the Padres do not have a listed starter for the last game of the series.

The Main Headline

For this week’s series, I am focused on…nothing!

In all seriousness, all eyes need to be on the Trade Deadline this week. New York is in a position to significantly upgrade their roster, and I am truly fascinated to see how it attacks things.

The Mets could try to target another high-leverage bullpen arm like Jhoan Durán or Emmanuel Clase. They could try to land a center fielder like Luis Robert Jr. or swing a trade for a starter that nobody has discussed on a wider basis. Internally, New York will need to decide if it wants to move off players like Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña or a pro-ready minor leaguer like Drew Gilbert.

In a sense, the deadline is the culmination of all of the first-half “Main Headlines” for these previews. The deadline could provide an answer to the Vientos/Baty/Mauricio logjam. It may provide insight into how the front office views the status of the lineup and if they think the current pitching staff can perform at a high level. It could show how the Mets view their overall status in the wider MLB terrain.

Yes, there is plenty to talk about regarding the Padres series; however, the deadline’s effects will likely reverberate across the remainder of the regular season, and potentially beyond.

What the Mets do this week could be the difference between a first-round exit, another NLCS appearance, or even a World Series title. For those reasons alone, the deadline is my main headline for this week.

Prediction

In their series against the Padres, I see the Mets winning two of three games. Brett Baty will hit one home run in the series, while Pete Alonso will have two extra-base hits. Ronny Mauricio will get on base three times, while Jeff McNeil will have three hits. Additionally, I predict the Mets will trade for OF Luis Robert Jr. and RHP Shane Smith at the deadline.

After this series, I have the Mets at 64-45 heading into another vital series with the San Francisco Giants.