Mets Holiday Wish List: Andrew Chafin

The holiday season is finally upon us and for the New York Mets, there’s one reliever they should have atop their wish list this year.

Among the many talented pitchers that remained available in free agency prior to Major League Baseball’s lockout, reliever Andrew Chafin was arguably the best option for any team looking to make a significant bullpen upgrade. Once this current transaction freeze is lifted, there’s no question the 31-year-old should attract plenty of attention across the majors.

For a Mets squad that already lost out on Aaron Loup, who left town to sign a two-year, $17-million contract with the Los Angeles Angels earlier this offseason, most of their attention will likely be focused on the reliever market in 2022. With that in mind, what better way to fill that void than with one of the top left-handed relief arms in the sport, right?

Further to this, Chafin is coming off the best statistical performance of his eight-year major league career, where he posted a stellar 1.83 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 2.98 FIP, .184 OPP AVG, 24.1% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and a 1.4 fWAR rating over his 68 2/3 innings between the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics.

Adding to his remarkable performance, the 6’2″ hurler also registered five saves – all of which came with the Athletics – and 22 holds last season.

Putting these results into perspective with the rest of the majors, Chafin served as one of the top-performing relievers and will eventually be rewarded for his efforts, as he finished with the sixth-best ERA and tied for the 11th-highest fWAR rating among all relief pitchers who compiled at least 50 innings pitched, according to FanGraphs.com.

Granted, Chafin isn’t your traditional high strikeout reliever that can blow opposing hitters away with velocity and movement. In saying that, the left-hander is capable of being effective in other key areas of pitching, particularly ones that aren’t very common.

One of the biggest reasons why the long-time Arizona Diamondback was so successful in 2021 was because of his ability to limit hard contact and keep balls in the yard, which are two aspects that have become extremely critical in today’s era. However, there’s certainly a shortage of pitchers that can apply both of those skills at the highest level of competition.

With Chafin, his hard-hit rate against (32%) ranked in the 87th percentile this past season, according to BaseballSavant.com. Despite allowing a career-worst 38.8% fly ball rate, that percentage didn’t hinder his performance as he only surrendered four home runs all season.

Paired with his 44.9% ground ball rate – his highest percentage since 2018 – the majority of balls that were put in play against the former first-round pick were either softly hit on the ground or in the air. As a result, his outstanding 5.8% HR/FB ratio finished 12th-best in the majors among all qualified relievers.

Historically, Chafin has been widely known for his success against left-handed hitters, and this past season wasn’t any different. But with the three-batter minimum rule in effect, he was also forced to face significantly more right-handers than compared to previous campaigns, and yet, his results fared pretty well in that department, too.

In total, the Ohio native faced 162 righties over his 68 appearances in 2021, generating a 2.18 ERA, 2.83 FIP, .196 OPP AVG, 26.5% strikeout rate, 6.8% walk rate, 6% HR/FB ratio and a 35.2% hard-hit rate against.

Considering Chafin’s strong suit has been facing left-handers, his ability to also excel against right-handers makes him an even more attractive target for all 30 teams, especially the Mets. In an era where lefty specialists have sort of become extinct, this evolution of his game should allow him to remain an effective pitcher for many years to come.

Exploring the strongest part of his game, the former Athletic dominated lefties like never before, resulting in the third-best hard-hit rate against (20.5%), the fourth-best OPP SLG percentage (.223), the sixth-best ERA (1.32), the seventh-highest GB rate (59.2%) and the 11th-best OPP AVG (.170) among all relievers who faced at least 100 left-handers last season.

In addition, the Kent State standout also recorded a 3.21 FIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and a 5.3% HR/FB ratio.

As for his pitch arsenal, Chafin relies on three different offerings, including a low-90s sinker, a low-90s four-seamer and a mid-80s slider. In the past, he’s also occasionally mixed in his mid-80s changeup, however, he only threw one of them throughout the 2021 campaign and didn’t use it at all the previous year.

For the most part, the veteran hurler primarily leans on his two fastballs, pairing them off against one another. This past season, specifically, the left-hander utilized his sinker 45.3% of the time, locating it in the lower half of the strike zone. In turn, he did the opposite with his four-seamer, whose usage sat at 28.2%, using it in the upper half of the zone.

That way, opposing hitters weren’t able to strictly sit on one specific pitch or area of the plate, keeping them on their toes throughout each at-bat. Once the count reached two strikes, his slider came into play and was thrown 51.7% during those situations, causing it to create the largest share of his strikeouts.

Overall, Chafin’s breaking ball remained his most reliable swing-and-miss weapon, resulting in a 54.6% whiff rate, a 55% strikeout rate and a 44% chase rate through 80 plate appearances.

Since Chafin declined his $5.25 million mutual option with Oakland earlier this winter, chances are he’ll be seeking a contract worth higher than that amount per season when the lockout concludes. Looking for a comparable contract, Kendall Graveman‘s three-year, $24-million contract that he signed with the Chicago White Sox might be the best example in this scenario.

In short, both of these relievers are the same age (31) and they each produced very similar fWAR ratings in 2021, 1.1 for Graveman and 1.4 for Chafin. Considering they’re both viewed as high-leverage arms, paired with their performances from last season, it’d make plenty of sense for them to receive identical deals.

If that were to be the case, and the soft-throwing lefty signed with New York, he’d join a talented group that already features Edwin Diaz, Trevor May and Seth Lugo. Though it’d be wise to add another impact reliever to this mix, until then, these four pitchers would provide a strong starting point heading into the final few months of winter.

So while everyone waits for a new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be signed, which hopefully isn’t too far away, here’s to hoping the Mets enjoy a cheerful holiday season and can land Chafin in the not too distant future.