Photo by Ed Delany of MMO
The New York Mets, having led the National League’s eastern division essentially all season, find themselves coming down stretch headed for a likely photo finish to claim divisional superiority. The Atlanta Braves just do not want to go away, having trailed the Mets by as many as ten and one-half games. Going into action On August 27, the Mets hold a slim two-game lead over manager Brian Snitker‘s crew.
There are many factors that will determine who sits atop the division at the end of the day on October 5. The health of key players will be a primary driver of success over the final 35 games of the 2022 season. To that point, the Mets should be getting Tylor Megill, Drew Smith, and possibly Joey Lucchesi back in September, all of whom can help their inconsistent bullpen. The Braves are set for the return of star second baseman Ozzie Albeis, which will give them abundant infield talent, given the emergence of rookie Vaughn Grissom, to go with Matt Olson, Dansby Swanson, and Austin Riley.
The remaining strength of schedule will also play a role in whether the Mets or Braves get the first-round bye or have to compete in the best-of-three wildcard round of the postseason. While neither team will face a “tough” schedule as determined by opponents’ winning percentage, the Mets hold an advantage in this area, as the combined winning percentage of their opponents the rest of the way is .445 (the weakest in MLB), compared to .478 for the Braves’ opponents, making Atlanta’s remaining schedule the ninth softest in baseball.
Looking at some notable points on the schedule from Tankathon, here are a few observations:
- The Mets have 20 remaining home games
- The Braves (also 35 games remaining) have 15 home games
- The Mets have three remaining series (nine games) against teams with records over .500
- The Braves have 15 remaining games (three series plus two more in their current series against the Cardinals) against teams with winning records
- After September 1, when the Mets conclude a three-game encounter with the Dodgers at Citi Field, the Mets will have just six games left against teams over .500 with three of them being against the Braves, and the other three against the Milwaukee Brewers
- A key aspect of the Braves’ schedule is that they have seven games remaining against the Phillies, who will be battling for a postseason opportunity
- Atlanta also has a remaining west coast trip, during which they will play the Mariners (who hold the third wildcard spot in the American League as of August 27) and Giants. Though the Giants are not playing particularly well, they (as of this writing) have an outside shot at a wildcard spot and can be tough at home
The baseball clichés all apply to this situation. Teams have to beat whomever they play. Any team can beat any other team on any given day, and the guys on the other team are wearing major league uniforms as well. All of this is true. However, does it matter if you’re playing the Dodgers (.702 winning percentage) or the Nationals (.333 winning percentage), whom the Mets play six more times? It absolutely does.
The Mets can’t let their guard down against their other sub-.500 opponents, the Marlins, Cubs, Pirates, Athletics, and Rockies. The Mets’ path to a division title is not “easy”, but at this point of the season, any advantage is welcome and must be maximized.
The Mets have that advantage (albeit a modest one) in their remaining schedule. Make the most of it, gentlemen. The Braves show no signs of slowing down. When that photo is taken at the finish line, let’s make it the Mets who win by a nose.
