It isn’t hard to pick out the player shouldering the most pressure this season for the New York Mets, that would be third baseman David Wright. Somehow, last year the Mets withstood playing without him for over four months, but several things combined to make that possible, notably the ineffective Washington Nationals and several key mid season acquisitions headlined by outfielder Yoenis Cespedes.
Will the Mets be as fortunate if Wright goes down and misses a sizable chunk this year? Will Wright be able to give the Mets at least 135-140 games at his previous level of production?
FanGraphs (Steamer) has Wright hitting .266 this season with 11 homers and 48 RBI. Baseball-Reference.com projects Wright to hit .275 with nine homers and 37 RBI. Both of those projections would be absolutely terrible news for the Mets in my opinion. The scary part is based on Wright’s recent injury history I can envision that before I can see him returning to one of his 6.0+ WAR-type seasons.
Wright hasn’t hit 30 homers since 2008 and has only hit at least 20 twice since then. He has a combined 31 in his last three years, and only once since 2013 has he played in as many at 130 games. Including the 2009 season, he’s had as many as 500 at-bats only four times.
You can talk about OPS and WAR all you want, but all statistics are predicated on at-bats and Wright hasn’t had many in recent years. Look, I am one of Wright’s biggest supporters, but I can’t ignore the facts that he hasn’t been healthy lately.
He missed over four months last year with spinal stenosis, and that he even returned late in the season was remarkable. Considering the good feelings about his return, recovery and playing in the playoffs, it would be another devastating blow is he were to go down again.
The Mets did not add a right-handed hitting power bat during the winter, perhaps with the outside hope Wright would come back close to form. As of now, they won’t have Cespedes back and it could be a dangerous gamble if they are thinking they can make another at-the-wire trade.
Let’s face it, as long as Wright is here he’s the face of this franchise, but if he’s hurt again and doesn’t produce, that contract with five years and $87 million remaining will be an albatross.
Imagine how much better things will be if Wright plays in 130 games, hits at least 20 homers and drives in 80 runs. Could make for another fun year, and for me that’s why Wright is the Mets’ most overriding issue.
I don’t know what these stat sites base all their projections on, but I’m hoping that they’re wrong about Wright.
Please follow me on Twitter.
