Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets just ended their longest homestand of the season by dropping two-of-three to the Cincinnati Reds. An 11-game stretch at Citi Field — where they’ve excelled this season — against the Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, and Cincy ended with a 5-6 record.

Not ideal for a club trying to pull away in the National League East. The past week has been tough off the field of play, too:

Say it with me on the count of three…one, two, three: WOOF. Lots of stuff over the past week-plus has been suboptimal, but there’s one way to get past it. As former Raiders owner, Al Davis, used to say, “Just win, baby.”

There are a couple of ways to look at where the Mets are situated. They currently own a 55-49 record and a 3.5-game lead in the division, which is great. After posting a 17-9 record in May, they’ve gone 29-29 since June 1st, which isn’t exactly great. Is their inability to pull away from the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves slightly problematic? Well, sure, but at the same time, neither of those teams have shown they’re capable of getting hot enough to overtake the Mets. Heck, neither of them has a winning record right now (although they’re close).

According to Wayne Randazzo on Sunday’s radio broadcast, the Mets hadn’t entered August with this good of a record in 13 years. They’ve also been in first place since May 8th. That’s the longest they’ve held the top spot of the division in 14 years. To finish the job, New York should follow the lead of its most recent successful clubs.

Turning It Up a Notch

The Mets have finished with a winning record three times since the 2015 season. If we take a peek at these instances on a month-by-month basis, they all have the same thing in common — the club turned things up a notch over the regular season’s final two months.

Here’s a look at how August and September went for each Mets team from 2015 through 2019 (I excluded 2020 because, you know, COVID-shortened season):

Between 2015, 2016, and 2019, there were six opportunities to post a winning record in August and September. They succeeded in each opportunity, with August of 2016 being the only time they didn’t finish at least five games over .500.

It’s also worth noting that in each of the three years mentioned above, New York enjoyed one other great month while essentially treading water the rest of the time before these respective late-season surges. The 2015 and 2016 Mets both enjoyed that great month in April (15-8 and 15-7, respectively), while the 2019 club waited until July to get that little boost (14-8).

August Should Be Eye-Opening

So, no big deal, right? Just get hot over the final two months and the Mets can sail into October without a hitch. Obviously, this is easier said than done, especially when important contributors like Francisco Lindor and Jacob deGrom aren’t exactly close to getting activated off the injured list. It’s also easier said than done upon looking at what August entails for New York.

The next two series against the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies (both on the road), along with facing a very different-looking Washington Nationals squad (at home) present its own opportunity. I mentioned above how the Mets have played .500 baseball since the start of June and haven’t increased their divisional lead at all (seriously, it’s exactly the same as it was on June 1st). Part of the problem is an inability to get the job done within the division. So far in 2021, the Mets have posted a 21-21 record against other NL East opponents. The next stretch of games will give them a chance to significantly change the look of that season-long performance.

There’s no time to breathe when they’re done with this stretch, though, because the 13 games that follow will be against two of baseball’s best teams (who also significantly beefed up at the trade deadline) in the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. It’ll start with three at home against the Dodgers before a seven-game west-coast road trip (three in San Francisco, four in LA). New York will get an off day on August 23rd prior to its final three games against the Giants at home.

Show Me Something Good

At a few different times this year, we’ve pointed at New York’s upcoming schedule to shed light on a tough test for them. Now that we’re past the deadline and entering the dog days of August, the identity of many clubs has been decided. The Giants aren’t just off to a good start — they’re playing like a playoff-caliber team. And, the Dodgers are the Dodgers, only with Max Scherzer and Trea Turner now on board (just when we thought we wouldn’t have to see them for a little while).

After getting through the gauntlet that is the Giants and Dodgers, the Mets will finish August with five more games against NL East opponents (three against Washington, two against Miami). So, one would assume we’ll really find out what type of club this is once we prepare to flip the calendar to September. Manager Luis Rojas has watched his guys show an incredible amount of resiliency over the season’s first four months, and they’re bracing for the ultimate gut check to prove they’re a first-place team that deserves a chance to fight for October glory.

Let’s hope they’re up to the task.